Well, 1-2-0 isn’t the start you draw up, especially when you’re swept in a home-and-home with a division rival. But it’s too early to panic. 

It would be one thing if the Leafs‘ top players were producing and they were losing games, but the opposite has been true so far.

William Nylander put his first five-on-five shot on net of the season in the third period of the team’s third game. He has four points in three games on paper, but two of them came on an empty net, and he’s yet to beat an NHL goalie this season. Neither has Auston Matthews nor John Tavares. Matthews has two points in three games; one was an empty-net goal, and the other was a very generous assist on Calle Jarnkrok’s 2-2 goal against Detroit.

None of those things will continue for long, so we need to see how it settles in before really establishing a feel for this group. The Leafs‘ stars have essentially been non-factors from a goal-scoring standpoint, and while they don’t receive a pass for it — they need to be a lot better, and it’s a disappointing start for Matthews and Nylander, in my view — it also won’t last.

The Leafs haven’t scored a power-play goal yet, either. 

Their most recent game against the Red Wings was their best performance yet, and truthfully, we saw our first reasons for optimism. They completely tilted the ice pretty well all night, and that’s an actual blueprint for sustaining success. Is it something they can build off of as their top players get going, or will it be more like game two and most of last season, where they get outplayed? The Habs didn’t dominate play against them, but they carried the edge in the run of the play as well until a broken stick led to the Leafs‘ game-winning goal. 

The Leafs haven’t been great in October over the years:

  • 2024: 6-4-1
  • 2023: 5-3-1
  • 2022: 4-4-2
  • 2021: 4-4-1

It’s early yet, but the Leafs’ big guns need to get going. Until they do, there’s really not much else to say.

Notes

Calle Jarnkrok, Toronto Maple Leafs
Photo: Marc DesRosiers/USA TODAY Sports

– In two out of the three Leafs games so far, they have managed to blitz teams early and score. They did it to Florida multiple times in the playoffs to the point where Paul Maurice commented on it, noting that a key for his team was simply getting through the first few minutes of the game. It’s clearly something the Leafs emphasize.

– I am happy for Calle Jarnkrok, who receives far too much of an unfair rep in the market for someone who has been hurt before each of the past two playoffs. If we look back on Jarnkrok’s 20-goal season with the Leafs, he’s a pretty subdued player, but after his goal against Montreal, he was particularly fired up. All summer, we wrote in this space that he is not a player they should punt away for free, and he’s showing why.

Jarnkrok is one of the only right-shots on the team, and he has been excellent on the penalty kill early, to go along with the team-leading three goals. In the one game the Leafs were leading late, he moved up with Knies and Matthews for a defensive shift as well. It is a bit strange that he has the lowest time on ice per game of any forward so far this season, given all of this.

– For someone who is only playing center because of an injury, it is wild that Max Domi leads the team in defensive-zone faceoffs so far this season. You would think the purpose of playing Domi at center — where his most common linemate so far is Nick Robertson — would be to use him as a purely offensive line, but that has not been the case so far. It’s a little confusing.

– It was nice to see Domi get on the board early. He didn’t score until December in each of his first two seasons in Toronto. He has seven shots on net through three games; last season, he averaged 1.26 per game. Domi shooting more is a clear point of emphasis for Craig Berube, which is also ironic because last season was Domi’s lowest shots-on-net rate per game of his career.

– Also in the faceoff circle, Nicolas Roy is winning just 39.3% so far this season. He’s a career 47.7% in the dot — which is also not great — but it’s generally within the margin of “fine enough.” A sub-40 % rate is a significant issue for a checking center, so it will be interesting to see if it improves and how the coaching staff manages it if it doesn’t.

Roy’s averaging just 12:14 per game so far, which would be the lowest in a full season in his career if it continues. He’s averaged roughly 15 minutes per game over his career. We also haven’t seen him move up on the right wing at all, something that happened pretty regularly in Vegas.

– One thing smart teams now like to do is pull their goalie while they have the puck in their own end, allowing them to move up the ice as a group of six rather than five. For the Leafs, they pulled the goalie as Rielly skated to center; Rielly dumped it in, the Leafs didn’t have numbers, and the Red Wings immediately scored.

– Morgan Rielly’s off to a good start to the season offensively, including a big goal in their one win to date, and he’s second on the team in shots on goal. He’s been one of their most dangerous players and one of their only Leafs actively looking to push play (which is great for him, but bad for the state of the team overall). All of that said, the icing late against the Red Wings was poor and shouldn’t have happened. Neither should the poor effort backcheck from William Nylander before the icing, nor the weak play up the wall by Nylander.

– It’s interesting to see the short leash Bobby McMann seems to receive relative to most other forwards on the team. He was one of their best players against Montreal, scoring a goal, sending Tavares away on a nice seam pass before he hit the post, and driving the line in general. In the next game, the line was terrible — which was largely because of the two players to his right — and he was bumped down. In the next game, McMann was one of their main players driving offense (he was second on the team with five shots on net and set up their first goal), and he barely moved up the lineup. I would be more tempted to move him to the top line than down to the third line.

– You can see the vision and shiftiness from Matias Maccelli. In each game, he has set up a good scoring chance or two, but the chemistry with linemates will take time. In the preseason, he looked really good in his one game with McMann. Playing with Matthews and Knies or Nylander and Tavares is a different type of animal, and it will take time if this remains the plan.

Quotes

Photo: Dan Hamilton/Imagn Images

“It is all mental for me. I go back to last night, and we played a good first period with a lot of good stuff; we scored a couple of goals, and got the lead.”

– Craig Berube, reflecting on the loss to the Red Wings in Detroit

This quote caught me off guard, particularly Berube noting that he thought his team played a good first period. Sure, they were up 2-0 after the first, but they were outshot and out-chanced. The Red Wings went on two 2v1s in the first two minutes of the game before the Leafs scored. Is that a good period? I don’t think anyone, if they’re honest with themselves, came out of that first period thinking, “Wow, the Leafs are up 2-0 and look great!”

You can argue he’s keeping his harshest criticism internal among the group, but it’s been over a season of this now. In the Amazon Prime series, there are clips of Berube in the room in G7 after the first period, noting that the team weathered the storm after the first period (they were out-attempted 25-0 to start that game — on home ice!). 

The team’s next game against Detroit was, by and large, a good performance. They mostly dominated and deserved better. But there has been too much dismissal of fundamental issues, and it has been happening for a while now.

“For the teams that win, you always look at them at the end of the year, and it seems like they are a really, really tight-knit group. Everyone talks about how they’re a real tight-knit group in here, but to do it, it takes a full year to build it.

It starts with putting the right foot forward. You have to care more about the guy to your left, right, and across from you than you do yourself. When you get that selfless mentality, I think you have something special.

That is what we are focused on: a pack-like mentality from game one.”

– Max Domi ahead of the season opener

We haven’t seen much of this yet (as I’ll expand on below). The team has looked largely disjointed, if anything.

“I think we’re finding our rhythm here. You know, taking a too-many-men penalty, you don’t really want to see that stuff early in the season. I think we’re going to clean everything up and watch some video. Just stick to our structure, and hopefully, it’ll figure itself out here. I think we, obviously, have an unbelievable leadership group and a lot of veterans on this team. I think we can find our rhythm and get back on track.”

– Matthew Knies, after the team fell to 1-2-0 to start the season

It will be interesting to see who steps up on the ice and rights the ship, so to speak.

Tweets of the Week

Easton Cowan, Maple Leafs
Photo: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

That was a promising debut for Easton Cowan, who is a player worth getting (within reason) excited about. He’s clearly crafty with the puck, and he made a few nice plays, cutting through the neutral zone to spring Knies to walk in for a good shot, and finding Matthews at 6-on-5 with a small-area play, among a few other moments that stood out.

It’s also his first game; of course, he was running on adrenaline, and he made three gaffes on the defensive side of the ice in his first period, by my count. We’ll see how he settles in once that adrenaline wears off and he’s playing regularly. He certainly did enough to stay in the lineup and even start the next game on the top line again. 

Cowan played 14:05, and if he’s around this number nightly, there’s no issue with him staying up in the NHL. If the number starts dipping or he’s simply not playing (as he didn’t in the first few games), we’ll have an issue.

My question, so far, is how they’re benefiting from being the heaviest team? They just played Detroit two times in less than 48 hours, and does anyone think the Wings are icing up today? Are they thinking, “Those guys really wore us down?” The Leafs outplayed them in the second game by a wide margin, but it was more a byproduct of the Leafs’ pride following Saturday’s loss than their heaviness.

Sure, heaviness can be an advantage, but are the Leafs leveraging it as one? They’ve played three games, but they haven’t punished a single defense. Their biggest hitter has probably been 35-year-old Chris Tanev, who injured Lucas Raymond and has taken a few runs at opponents so far. 

Semi-related to the heavy note above: In the preseason, Laurent Dauphin drove the net hard and made contact with Anthony Stolarz, but there was no response from the Leafs whatsoever. We’ve now had a few incidents I would classify as response-worthy, yet no real response has taken place. While the tweet focuses on Matthews — which is fair — it’s more than just him, and it’s incredibly disappointing, to say the least.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Maple Leafs
Photo: John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports

1.  I think the Leafs’ approach to their third pairing is worthy of significant scrutiny. The team all but admitted that Oliver Ekman-Larsson is better on the left through training camp and asked Simon Benoit to try the right side. While Benoit did miss time in training camp, they tried it for all of one preseason game; Benoit was back on the left for his second preseason game.

Through three games, OEL has given up a brutal turnover for a goal against Montreal on the right, taken a bad penalty on the right as Lucas Raymond was beating him (Detroit scored on this power play), hasn’t recorded a point, has been on for three goals against and none for, and has just four shots on net. Is it worth sticking OEL on the right to keep Benoit in the lineup every night? What is the payoff here?

I think the team nets out better with OEL on the left and Philippe Myers on the right, rather than OEL on the right to facilitate Benoit in the lineup. I like Benoit — and he had great moments in the playoffs — but it is what it is. The coaching staff seemingly won’t admit this to themselves.

2.  On top of Myers in and OEL on the left, I still think I’d rather see Morgan Rielly – Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe – Brandon Carlo. McCabe and Tanev are the team’s two best defensemen, and the team doesn’t defend or control play well enough as a whole. I’d rather divide and conquer instead of the current situation, which is further exacerbated by the Leafs pairing up the shutdown pairing with the Matthews line; I think each side would benefit offensively from Rielly sharing the ice with the top line more often.

The Tavares line could also probably benefit from McCabe leading the way defensively, and we’ve already seen McCabe drive a pairing with Benoit, so asking him to do the same with Carlo — who is a better player — and on the left side — where McCabe is better — should work, in theory. 

3.  As much as we can debate the defense pairings, I think I should also note that the Leafs need to stress breaking out cleanly systemically. I was at the game on Monday  — which is one the Leafs completely tilted in the second half — and to start the game, it was stunning to me how content the defense core is to rim pucks around the wall. This goes for not just the Benoits and Carlos of the group and includes players who have made a career on a good outlet pass like Tanev.

They rarely bump it to the center in the middle. Wingers aren’t receiving passes to their tape. It’s a lot of rimming and chipping it out, and it’s all very disjointed. You need to be able to do both realistically, but right now, it’s tilted too far one way.

4.  I think if Steven Lorentz is set to return, I’d keep the top line as is to start, move McMann back up to the Tavares-Nylander line, play Joshua with Domi and Maccelli, and reunite the Lorentz-Roy-Jarnkrok line that’s been effective. It’s tough for Nick Robertson, but it’s really between him and Dakota Joshua at this point, and the tie is probably going to Joshua, although neither has done enough to justify their spot in the lineup. I’d scratch both in a hypothetical world where Laughton was able to return this week.

5.  I think I’d give both special team units more time as is. The penalty kill has been legitimately solid, and while the power play is 0/6 to start the season (it’s ridiculous that they have only gone to six total power plays, by the way), the power play is creating zone time, their entries are cleaner, and they are generating chances. It is on Matthews and Nylander to cash in.

My one note about the PP: While I get they want Rielly to shoot on occasion — which is fair — it’s becoming the first shot too often. At one point on the power play against Detroit (in Toronto), Rielly and Nylander were playing pitch and catch across the line, and Rielly — not Nylander — shot it. That’s simply not what you want if you’re the Leafs. It shouldn’t need to be said out loud at this point that Nylander and Matthews are the primary shooters up top. The Leafs have recorded four power play shots so far this season – one each for Rielly, Knies, Domi, and Matthews. That needs a major correction.

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