When Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares alone combine to double the other team’s total in high-danger chances, the Maple Leafs are supposed to win the hockey game.

Instead, the Leafs’ only goal came from Scott Laughton, and they ultimately lost 5-1, a scoreline that flattered the Stars.

Despite breakaways for Matthews and Nylander, and multiple other quality looks for the Leafs‘ top players, the Leafs left the opening 40 minutes scoreless. They trailed 1-0 despite allowing just four shots against in each of the first two periods and receiving four power plays to Dallas’ two.

Nights when a team loses the goaltending and puck-luck battles despite out-playing the opponent are a part of life in the NHL for every team, and so are schedule losses. This was a 3-in-4 for both teams, but the Leafs were in a back-to-back with their third-string goalie in the net, and Dallas was rested at home with their starter in goal. The Leafs led high-danger chances 3:1 and still trailed by multiple goals, pre-Dallas-empty-netter. They also led in hits 24-11 despite owning more of the puck. This was a solid road effort against a top team in a tired situation.

Of course, moral victories aren’t providing any solace to anyone in Toronto right now. Still, if you’re the Leafs, the lesson tonight is that they need to stack the odds in their favour like this much more often — with the sharper puck play and improved pace on display in the opening 40 minutes, while owning the five-on-five shots/shot attempts/chances — if they’re ever going to achieve a sustained turnaround in results this season.

“We were getting the puck into the middle of the ice more, which is allowing us to play a little quicker, get up the ice a little better, be able to attack, sustain time in the offensive zone, and maintain puck possession.”

– John Tavares

That said, the final period was again disappointing from the Leafs, who were outshot and out-chanced despite chasing the game. The difference in the two teams’ current confidence was noticeable: one team is near the top of the league and has won all 13 games when leading after two periods this season, while the other keeps finding ways to lose, and you could tell which team was which in the final frame.

During the current 1-4-1 stretch, the Leafs have been out-scored 9-4 and outshot 75-61 at five-on-five while trailing in the game. 

Post-Game Notes

– The Leafs needed a save from Dennis Hildeby somewhere along the way in this one. None of the three goals that mattered were outright stinkers, but there were a few stoppable ones in there to at least keep Dallas at two (before the empty-netter). That said, when the elite players who are paid handsomely to beat goalies can’t beat goalies, and Laughton is the only Leaf goal-scorer on a night when the Leafs tripled the Stars in high-danger chances (and most of those chances were on the sticks of Matthews, Nylander, and Tavares, plus one for Knies in the third), there isn’t much else to say tonight.

Since the team’s slump started following the 2-0 win over Tampa Bay on December 8 (now five losses in the last six), the Tavares and Matthews lines have been out-scored 11-3 at five-on-five. The Roy and Laughton lines are even.

– Craig Berube has to find more situational opportunities to elevate Scott Laughton onto the wing of one of the top-six lines. He’s been one of their most consistent forwards of late, and his four goals in the last 10 games are more than any of Tavares, Nylander, and Knies have scored over that stretch. Similar to the shorty vs. Montreal, Laughton stepped up tonight with a big third-period solo effort where he beat the goalie clean with an excellent bar-down finish. He also led the team with five shots on goal. The coach should ride/reward his current confidence level by giving him some spot duty in scoring situations alongside better linemates.

– Matias Maccelli probably sat out a few too many games. He’s no savior by any means, but the coach has been asking for the confidence/mindset to hang onto pucks and make more plays, and Maccelli has brought that to the lineup in the last couple of appearances. His line is up 32-15 in five-on-five shot attempts and 8-2 in high-danger chances over the last two games (77% xGF), although they’ve unfortunately been outscored 2-1.

– After owning the Robertson Bowl versus brother Jason for years, it didn’t break the way of Nick Robertson tonight, as he struggled with some turnovers/icings and finished with zero shots on goal. That was the only Leaf line (Robertson-Roy-McMann) not to win the five-on-five shots/chances/expected goals tonight.

– Adding to the Leafs’ many sources of frustration in this game, it was ridiculous to watch the officials look the other way on the Jason Robertson-Jake McCabe incident prior to Robertson’s 1-0 goal, then make the call on Maccelli early in the second period. Are they letting the players play, or not?

Still, to repeat ourselves until we’re blue in the face, the Leafs obviously have to come up with something out of four power-play opportunities, and the lack of man-advantage production is absolutely killing them in the standings. Despite the offense drying up of late, the Leafs are still top five in the NHL in five-on-five goals per game this season overall, but the Stars’ Wyatt Johnston has more power-play goals than the entire Leafs roster combined through 35 games. Says it all, and should really get someone fired.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/Joe Bowen: Stars 5 vs. Maple Leafs 1

 

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