The Maple Leafs required some sort of run to lift themselves back into the playoff mix, and while they’ve now gotten one with their recent 7-0-2 stretch, they’re far from out of the woods.
Technically, the Leafs woke up on Monday morning in a playoff spot. They are tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins for the final spot by points percentage, but the Leafs own the tiebreaker. In any event, there’s no purpose in celebrating mid-season technicalities in the standings. There is a lot of hockey left to play.
Over the many years of writing about this team, I have always tried to remind myself that they are almost never as good as they look when winning, and almost never as bad as they appear when losing. It’s true for every team, but the noise in this market can make it particularly difficult to clear-headedly sort through the highs and lows of a long NHL season.
The positives are obvious, even if some of them will come down to earth.
The Leafs‘ goaltending has entirely solidified, and it’s reasonable to expect good goaltending on a nightly basis. It is almost surprising when they don’t get it, albeit those off nights will happen on occasion, naturally. Since Joseph Woll returned on November 15th, the Leafs are fourth in the league in save percentage. He was really good last season, carrying the mail with Anthony Stolarz injured, and he has done it yet again. Getting a healthy Stolarz back and chomping at the bit would provide another boost, but Dennis Hildeby has more than held the fort in the meantime to provide Woll with the necessary rest to keep him fresh.
The power play bounced back for obvious reasons. It was too talented to be outright bad — some regression was to be expected — but there was also reason to believe it should simply be a quality unit. There is a lot of talent at their disposal — this team is fifth in the league in goals per game overall — and their top players are really starting to roll offensively. There is an adjustment period when a conductor like Mitch Marner departs, but they are really beginning to look comfortable, as if they finally have a coherent plan/structure.
Believe it or not, the Leafs are not even in the top 10 in power-play shooting percentage in their nine games without Marc Savard (they are 13th). They are not shooting the lights out by any means. Rather, they’re sixth in shot attempt rate and eighth in high-danger attempt rate. It’s a sustainable recipe.
On the other side of special teams, the penalty kill continues to excel and is now ranked third league-wide. They have been solid-to-very-good all season, and now they are starting to get healthy on defense. Even still, they are technically without Chris Tanev and Dakota Joshua, and Calle Jarnkrok is in and out of the lineup. All three have been good penalty killers in the league, but everyone else is available, and the Leafs have really good penalty-killing personnel at their disposal.
While the PK has generally been effective all season, over the past nine games, it has allowed only one goal. They’ve also scored a shorthanded goal, so they actually have an even goal differential over this stretch. It is clearly not going to last.
That part aside, excelling in those three departments — goaltending, power play, penalty kill — will take any team a long way.
The five-on-five picture is a bit more convoluted.
On the surface, it looks like the same old story. During this nine-game streak, the Leafs are still controlling just 45.55 percent of shot attempts, which ranks 26th. However, if we dig a little deeper, that number isn’t necessarily a clear indicator of what’s transpiring on the ice.
We’ve already talked about the breakouts improving and using the middle of the ice more. They are also doing a better job of activating their far-side defenseman and using him as an outlet to break out cleanly. That is often where the open ice is, and they are better at finding it and creating skating lanes.
There is some evidence that the five-on-five improvements are starting to pay off beyond their top-level results. During this recent run, the Leafs are 14th in shot attempt percentage when tied, above water in shot attempts and expected goals, and are winning those minutes 8-3 overall (in the previous 35 games, they were 26th and out-attempted nearly 54/46). Their 10.81 shooting percentage is a little high, but it’s nothing crazy. The Sabres, for example, have been on a heater of their own and are shooting nearly 20 percent in that time. That is crazy high.
When the score is within one, the Leafs are underwater in shot attempt share, but they are winning the critical areas of the ice with a positive expected goal share, while essentially sawing off high-danger looks and scoring chances (two and one fewer, respectively). With their shooting talent up and down the lineup, if the Leafs are creating equal opportunity (or a little more) as their opponent, you feel pretty good about their odds against most teams.
When games are tight, the Leafs are playing notably better hockey. They are moving the puck better, and they’re generating some real zone time compared to the start of the season. They have been solid and consistent at generating leads; no team has held the lead more than the Leafs since December 23. In fact, only two other clubs have owned the lead for more than two hours in this time period, and neither of them is within five minutes of the Leafs.
Once the Leafs are ahead in games, they are parking the bus too much, which is cratering their overall five-on-five numbers. Once they are leading in these past nine games, they aren’t even generating 40% of shot attempts (22nd). You can easily see it in some of these recent wins — against Ottawa, Florida, and even Vancouver. The Leafs strung together a good period or two to build leads, then completely sat back as their opponent pushed for offense.
The Leafs’ goaltending is good enough to get away with it at a decent rate throughout the season, but it’s difficult to pull this off consistently against top-quality opponents. Let top teams come at you when down in games, and they usually break through.
The quality of competition piece has been a big part of this run, too: The Leafs played just three current playoff teams, and all three games went to overtime (winning one, losing two). Otherwise, quite a few of their opponents have been weak: the Jets went on an 11-game losing streak, Ottawa is in shambles, so is New Jersey, and Vancouver might be the league’s worst team. However, a team can only play the teams on its schedule, and the Leafs did it as well as possible. Now, we’ll see if the confidence can carry over against stronger opposition.
This two-and-a-half-week stretch coming up will go a long way toward deciding the Leafs’ regular-season finish this season — a four-game road trip spanning Colorado-Utah (which is a back-to-back), Vegas, and Winnipeg, followed by a five-game homestand where they play Minnesota, Detroit, Vegas, Colorado, and Buffalo. Two games against the best team in the league, two division rivals that are both ahead of the Leafs in the standings (and own a winning record against them this season), two games against you-know-who, plus a loaded-up Minnesota Wild team. It’s a really big stretch, and the Leafs need to at least come out of it within striking distance of a playoff spot.
There are signs the Leafs are trending the right way over this run, with several reasons for genuine optimism. The test now is translating it to their toughest remaining stretch of schedule. Beyond the individual performances they’ll need to rely on (Matthews, Woll, Nylander, etc.), can they continue to build on their five-on-five game and stretch a good period or two into a full game, even if they have the lead? Can their special teams continue to provide them with an advantage across the board? Can they actually stay healthy along the way?
If the Leafs can get through this next stretch with enough wins, they will be in a good spot all-around. They’ve built their game and gotten healthy of late — two things that are not mutually exclusive — and have battled their way back into the mix. Now, the real test has arrived. Are the 2025-26 Maple Leafs for real?
Programming Note: The rest of this week’s Leafs Notebook will follow later today
