Coming off an intense, fast-paced OT win in Colorado, the Maple Leafs laid an egg in Utah on the second half of a back-to-back, losing in regulation for the first time in 2026.
It was evident right from the jump that the Leafs just simply didn’t have it in this game. Utah dictated the pace nearly the entire game. All night, the Leafs looked exhausted. Making matters significantly worse is that not only did the Leafs look physically tired, but they weren’t present mentally, either. The defensive-zone coverage was sloppy and lazy, leading to numerous chances throughout the game, including countless grade-A opportunities in the final moments after Toronto fully checked out.
It started early, as Auston Matthews and William Nylander had some sort of miscommunication/misplay in the neutral zone, leading to a turnover. On the rush, four Leafs committed to one Mammoth skater and got caught puck-watching, opening up a seam pass that forced Dennis Hildeby to make a big save and Matthews to block the rebound. But Utah kept up the pressure, and Nylander got crossed up with Matias Maccelli in coverage at the point, leading to a wide-open one-timer for Michael Carcone to open the scoring.
The Leafs had an opportunity to tie the game midway through the first — their first real scoring chance — as on a power play, John Tavares fed Nylander with a nifty little pass down low, but Nylander couldn’t bury. That was the only real chance the power play generated all night, as the Leafs struggled to maintain possession in the offensive zone at 5v4.
Late in the opening frame, Utah nearly made it 2-0 on the power play. At the net, the official blew the whistle despite Hildeby not fully covering the puck, negating the goal Utah thought they scored on the rebound.
If the Leafs had a chance to perhaps gain a foothold in this game despite their loopy, tired performance, it was that late-first-period break preceding John Tavares‘ breakaway early in the second period. Tavares anticipated Karel Vejmelka dropping into the butterfly, which he didn’t, as the shooter blinked first, and Tavares shot it straight into the goalie’s glove.
From there, Utah busted the game open. More specifically, Dylan Guenther did, ripping a pair of goals within 90 seconds of each other in the first few moments of the period. The first was a seeing-eye rocket as he flew down the left side. Only he and the official knew it went in. Admittedly, for as fantastic a shot as it was, it was surprising that Hildeby didn’t get out more aggressively to take away the angle and stand taller in the net with his 6’7 frame. It was a solo rush for Guenther, so there was no cross-ice pass to account for/remain deep in his net for.
Seconds after the first Guenther tally, after Morgan Rielly got stripped in the OZ, springing another rush chance for the Mammoth, Brandon Carlo blew a tire and took out Rielly as well, leaving Guenther alone in the slot, where he buried again.
The dagger came in the final few minutes of the second, following a failed Leafs clearing attempt. J.J. Peterka fired a fairly innocent-looking shot from the half wall that went through a screen and found a hole in Hildeby.
The only rested Leaf besides Hildeby, Calle Järnkrok broke the shutout early in the third, but Utah also added a pair of goals late as the Leafs were fully gassed out by that point, completely abandoning all defensive responsibilities and hanging their goalie out to dry.
The Mammoth controlled over 60% of the shot attempts in every period and 80% of the expected goals in the first and third, as the Maple Leafs attended this game in the literal sense only.
Post-Game Notes
– The question entering this “schedule loss” situation: In their third game in four nights, with plenty of travel and an emotional come-down after a big win in Colorado, would the Leafs be able to sustain some of their winning momentum early and jump on the Mammoth before likely needing to hang on for dear life? Or would they just have nothing in the tank at all? Needless to say, it was the latter.
– The mental focus needed to be there if the legs weren’t, and it certainly wasn’t, as seen in the Leafs’ recently-detailed defensive play going completely off the rails. The only hope the Leafs had would’ve been a big goaltending performance and a lot of opportunism offensively, neither of which transpired. Considering his massive frame, Dennis Hildeby certainly did not play like the towering 6 ‘7 man mountain that he is. For as much as his length helps him when moving laterally in his crease to prevent back-door shots, he was vulnerable up high an awful lot. The Mammoth rang multiple shots off the crossbar in this game, with Hildeby likely beaten, and Guenther had the aforementioned laser of a shot that beat Hildeby up high as well, with the goalie really deep in his crease.
– Side note: On the broadcast, they flashed a stat showing the Leafs’ penalty kill had been clicking over 90% since December 8th (it went two-for-two in the first period of this game). A massive part of that is the Leafs’ save percentage on the PK of .953 (!!!) over that stretch, which is by far the best in the league. The contrast in the underlying numbers is interesting, though. Since December 8th, the Leafs are just 20th in xGA, allowing 9.32 xGA/60 while shorthanded, and 22nd in high-danger chances allowed, with 34.03/60. Admittedly, that doesn’t fully line up with the eye test, and I question how much of it is misleading due to shot attempts from locations that may record as dangerous, but the situations aren’t actually that dangerous/the goalie is in a position to make the save. If the PK is predictable to each other and takes away the most dangerous seam plays, the goalie can more easily anticipate and square up to shooters. Still, that save percentage will be a tough one to sustain.
– Obviously, this was a horrible, horrible game from the Leafs. That said, I am willing to chalk this one up as a “burn the tape” type of night if they prove this was a one-off on Thursday against Marner’s Golden Knights, given their recent play. The Leafs had picked up at least a point in their last 10 games, which was just one game away from their fourth-longest point streak in franchise history. Additionally, with how they went toe-to-toe with the NHL’s best team just 24 hours prior in a high-octane and fast-paced OT win, this had all the markings of a physical- and emotional-letdown game, combined with the tired vs. rested dynamic of the two teams. Burn the tape, come out fresh with a better effort Thursday in Vegas, and this one will be easy to forgive.
– If there is one exception to a takeaway or adjustment I might advocate following this burn-the-tape type of game, it’s the current mix-and-match of the defense pairings. It doesn’t need to be pointed out that this was a completely miserable night for Morgan Rielly (-4) and Brandon Carlo (-2). But Jake McCabe also hasn’t looked as sharp as usual in the past couple of games, even in the win over Colorado, where he was primarily at fault on two goals. Troy Stecher and McCabe seemed to really have a connection together. That would leave Rielly-Carlo and Benoit-OEL, while moving OEL up with Rielly in offensive situations to supplement his minutes (OEL, by the way, picked up another nice assist on the Leafs’ lone goal by Jarnkrok tonight, moving him into a tie for seventh among NHL D in five-on-five points). This seems like the adjustment the coaching staff would be most amenable to.
An alternative setup is to take a look at McCabe-Carlo in a matchup role, with a potentially similar dynamic to McCabe-Tanev. They could then return OEL to his strong side (preferable) alongside Stecher, and move Rielly into a sheltered, lower-minutes role on a bottom pairing with Benning — or Myers, theoretically, although hopefully not — as his right-shot partner (nothing against Benoit, but they need the right balance/mix, and Benoit or Rielly on their offside isn’t it). I have my doubts the coaching staff would ever run this look, though. There is also the option of OEL-Carlo and McCabe-Stecher, but whatever the pairings are, that should be the top four at this point.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
