The Toronto Marlies defeated the Rochester Americans 2-1 in the first round to set up a mouth-watering clash with the vaunted Laval Rocket.
Regular Season Series
For the second straight season, Laval was crowned North Division champions. The Rocket held off the late-charging Syracuse Crunch to retain their title and ensured home advantage against divisional rivals.
The Marlies fared well against Montreal’s affiliate throughout the regular season, winning five of eight games. It was a tight series, however, with three games requiring OT/SO and both teams scoring 25 goals apiece.
The Marlies were solid at home with a 3-1-0 record, but, more importantly, given the nature of this upcoming matchup, they split the regular-season series 2-2 in Laval. Toronto won the final two games of the regular season against Laval on home ice.
Playoff Series
For the first time since the extended playoff format was implemented, the Marlies made it third time lucky with victory in a fourth-vs-fifth best-of-three series.
The two teams have yet to meet in the playoffs since Laval’s inception, and the Rocket have enjoyed relative success in post-season play. They have made the Conference Finals twice in the last four years, including in 2025, and will be looking to take the next step.
With the first two games in Laval, the Marlies will be looking for a split before the series returns to Toronto. Home form was a huge key to the Rocket’s success this season, posting an impressive 23-8-5 record (tied for second most home wins in the Eastern Conference).
Starting On Time & the Five-on-Five Play
Success against Rochester was partly due to starting on time and scoring the crucial first goal. The Game 2 loss in Rochester was a perfect example of what can happen when Toronto fails to start on time; they struggle to play catch-up hockey and often lose comfortably.
Laval has a similar pattern this season in terms of when they’re their most offensively potent. Both teams score far more in the second and third periods than in the opening frame. Scoring first and imposing yourself on the scoreboard could be key to success if one team can find the net early.
Whether Toronto can score enough goals at five-on-five will go a long way to determining their fate. Laval conceded the second fewest five-on-five goals (106) in the AHL this season. At the other end of the ice, Laval’s 137 goals are nothing to write home about, but their five-on-five goal differential (31) was sixth-best this season and speaks to why they were such a difficult team to defeat on home ice.
Special Teams
Stay out of the penalty box: That is what John Gruden should be stressing to his players against an aggressive Laval team that will goad and provoke at every turn in this series.
Both teams had terrible minor penalties differential through the regular season; the Marlies were -24, and the Rocket were -32. Laval racked up 345 minor penalties through the regular season, the most of any team in the Eastern Conference.
Laval’s 80% penalty kill is middle of the pack, but the power play was successful, with a sixth-best 52 goals scored at a 22% strike rate. Alex Belzile contributed 14 of those power goals. Against Toronto in the regular-season series, Laval was a fraction below that, at 19%, partly because the Marlies stayed out of the box (21 minor penalties). With more at stake, the Marlies will need to keep their cool heads.
On the other side of the docket, Toronto’s power play will have to score to keep Laval wary of deploying the dark arts and mauling them after every whistle. The Marlies scored three power-play goals on 26 attempts versus the Rocket during the regular series. There were promising signs against Rochester (21%) that Toronto is starting to find some chemistry with the extra attacker.
Goaltending
I believe Toronto has the edge in the goaltending matchup in this series.
I’m not certain how Montreal’s affiliate will set up with the choice between Kaapo Kähkönen and Jacob Fowler. The latter is a rookie who has far better numbers than his teammate in terms of save percentage (sixth-best in the AHL among goalies with 15+ starts), shutouts (3), and wins per start. Whether Laval will go with the exciting rookie prospect or the vastly more experienced Finnish netminder is a fascinating decision. Kähkönen backstopped the Charlotte Checkers to the Calder Cup Final last year and thus presents perhaps the ‘safer’ option in this scenario.
It was a huge surprise to me when John Gruden opted to start Artur Akhtyamov in Games 1 and 2 of the Rochester series. He filed a solid performance in Game 1, where some key saves in the first period set the stage for a relatively stress-free shutout thereafter. His performance wasn’t the reason for the Game 2 loss, but you might have liked him to make an extra save or two.
I wasn’t at all surprised that a) Dennis Hildeby was selected for Game 3 and b) he produced an excellent performance in a winner-takes-all situation. The big Swedish netminder should be the starter for Game 1, and for my money, he is currently the best netminder in the series.
One more reminder of what John Gruden said before the Rochester series: “We are very fortunate to have two outstanding goaltenders. We’re more concerned as a staff to make sure we’re playing the right way in front of whoever is in net. If it’s Dennis or Artie, we are confident either way.”
Offensive Producers
Laval has a well-rounded offense with contributions throughout the lineup. 11 players contributed 25+ points, and nine registered double figures in the goals tally.
Alex Belzile led the teams in goals (29), points (62) and power play goals (14). Laurent Dauphin is the team’s most creative player, registering 44 assists, and was Toronto’s nemesis during the regular season, leading Laval in scoring with seven points (3G/4A) in seven games. Sean Farrell, Joshua Roy and Sammy Blais are also notable threats offensively, alongside Owen Beck and Luke Tuch.
As much as Laval plays a grinding forecheck game, they are also highly capable of scoring in transition with speed throughout the roster. This is what has made them such a formidable team, especially on home ice.
The Marlies’ depth scoring will be needed in the matchup against this Laval team, and they should be able to go toe-to-toe with them in that regard. Ryan Tverberg (2G/7A), Jacob Quillan (7G/4A), and Bo Groulx (3G/3A) enjoyed regular-season success versus Laval, but it was the depth of scoring that pushed Toronto to a winning record. Luke Haymes, Noah Chadwick and Alex Nylander all chipped in with five points apiece, with Haymes scoring four goals during his hottest run of form during the season.
The Marlies’ first line (Groulx – Shaw – Lettieri) found their form against Rochester, the second line and third lines generated chemistry with different looks (Cowan – Quillan – Tverberg and Paré – Haymes – Nylander in Game 3), and Matthew Barbolini could be available again after injury.
Recent form
Game-ready and battle-hardened versus rested. Which wins out?
The Marlies will be confident, having won a series decider against Rochester after finishing the season with two victories against Laval. The North Division champs will be well-rested and chomping at the bit to get going in front of a vociferous, sold-out home barn.
If there is any pressure on Laval, it’ll be to maintain home advantage in Games 1 and 2. Laval’s road form this season was iffy in comparison to its domination at home: a record of 18-15-3, with a minus goal differential to boot.
Series Prediction
As confident as I was that Toronto would see off Rochester, this series is far more in the balance. Despite being a first vs. fourth seed, the Marlies should only be considered the slight underdog.
Laval is such an excellent front-running team that scoring first will be critical for Toronto, especially in Games 1 and 2. If Toronto could return home at 1-1, they would have an excellent chance of upsetting the favourites.
As mentioned previously, the keys to this series are staying out of the penalty box and matching/even bettering a Laval team that wins games by giving little away during five-on-five play.
Potentially, this series could go all the way to five games, which would make Laval favourites with home-ice advantage. I think Toronto will relish the underdog role and could cause an upset. I realize I’m sitting on the fence here, but this series is too close to call.
Toronto Marlies vs. Laval Rocket Round 2 Playoff Schedule
| - | Date | Location | Time (EST) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | April 29 | Laval | 7 p.m. |
| Game 2 | May 1 | Laval | 7 p.m. |
| Game 3 | May 3 | Toronto | 4 p.m. |
| Game 4* | May 5 | Toronto | 7 p.m. |
| Game 5* | May 8 | Laval | 7 p.m. |
*if necessary
Be sure to grab your tickets and get out to support the Marlies if you can.
