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Here are the playoff scenarios going into tonight:
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- A Leaf regulation win is a big step toward Habs (4) vs. Leafs (5) in round one starting on Tuesday night, the first Leafs-Habs series since 1979 (oh lawd), but a Leafs regulation win would still require Boston to grab at least 1 point in their remaining 2 games in order for the Bruins to win the division and for Leafs vs. Habs to happen.
- A Leaf overtime or shootout win, because the Habs garner a point in this scenario, would require Boston to win ONE of their remaining TWO games or else it’s Boston (4) vs. Leafs (5) in round one.
- A Leaf loss in regulation or overtime/shootout, as the Habs would garner two points, would require Boston to earn three points in their remaining two games or else it’s Leafs vs. Bruins in round one.
- Further explained: a Hab win in overtime/shootout gives them 63 points with 25 ROW. Even though one Boston regulation win ties the teams on points and ROW in this scenario, a Hab OT/SO win paired with only one Boston win will still give the Habs the division title – the Habs are 3-1 against the Bruins and carry the edge in points percentage in the season series. Boston must collect three points to win the division whether the Habs win in regulation or OT/SO.
- A Leaf loss in regulation could also mean the Leafs fall to sixth, if Ottawa were to win BOTH of their remaining two games tonight and tomorrow. If the Leafs fall to sixth, the Capitals are guaranteed the 3rd seed so it would be Leafs (6) vs. Capitals (3) in round one.
- A Leaf loss in overtime/shootout means the Senators cannot catch the Leafs for fifth place.
