The dirty secret about free agency: It’s often more about the mistakes you avoid than the players you add.

Look no further than last year’s big spenders and how they fared afterward:

One day into this offseason’s free agency, we are already seeing much of the same theme. Flipping through all the contracts signed to this point, it’s hard to find many that excite you.

We highlighted players like Brandon Tanev and Connor Brown as potentially useful options ahead of free agency. Both signed contracts with not just solid AAVs, but notable term attached to them. One player I didn’t include on my list — and was asked about a ton afterwards — is Tanner Jeannot, who signed for $3.4Mx5 in Boston, a massive deal for a player who hasn’t surpassed 14 points in two seasons now. It’s not even a discussion.

Were there players who signed elsewhere that I would have liked to add to this Leafs team? Yes. Do I want those players at the dollars and term essentially all of them received? In almost all cases, no.

The only player and contract that gives me a slight pause is Andrew Mangiapane’s two-year, $3.6 million AAV contract in Edmonton. He’s a good player and would have helped the Leafs, but I’m also mindful of the quantity of small wingers this team already has under contract. Can a healthy Calle Jarnkrok reproduce Mangiapane’s 14-goal, 28-point season, while also offering superior penalty killing? Probably, and for $1.5 million less. 

In a hard-cap system, the reality is that efficient contracts set a team up for success more than anything else. It creates extra cap room for a team, which can then add additional quality players to give it the edge. The Florida Panthers are an obvious example, with the likes of Sam Reinhart under $9 million and Gustav Forsling under $6 million. Accumulate enough contract wins, and you can inevitably pay more players, and you also gain the luxury of even overpaying players if necessary.

While one could argue that Toronto’s top players all previously produced and individually earned their money, there’s no real argument to be made at this point that they elevated in the most critical of moments in such a manner that they’re collectively worth roughly half the salary cap year in and year out. We don’t need to relitigate it all, but even if you want to argue that Mitch Marner was fairly paid — given he was a consistent top 10 scorer in the league — the reality is his best comparable at the time of signing was his draft class counterpart Mikko Rantanen. Rantanen made just under $2 million less than Marner for six years while lapping him in playoff production (and winning a Cup, too).

The Leafs clearly needed to reset their cap books, and so far, they have admirably attempted to do so. John Tavares took a big discount to stay. Matthew Knies signed an appropriate RFA deal that carries significant upside and minimal downside, one he wanted to sign ahead of free agency to help the Leafs continue to add (imagine that!). Nic Roy is a properly paid 3C who is a solid NHL center. Matias Maccelli was overpaid last season, but he was easily worth his salary in the prior two seasons and is a decent bet to bounce back on this Toronto team.

Exercising caution when the free agent market opens is not fun, but looking back on regrettable, overpriced deals six months from now is even worse. Other than the odd depth signing (and I stress depth signing — not something that would keep me up at night) like Cole Koepke for $1 million or taking a flier on Scott Perunivch as a change-of-pace defenseman for $775,000, there truthfully wasn’t much about day one that should make anyone think twice.

Now, an already thin free agent market has dwindled further, and the options are slim at best. When we covered this year’s potential free agents, I noted that I did it first to demonstrate the weakness of the market in general before moving to potential trade options. In Treliving’s July 1 media availability, he noted the potential to improve through the trade market — without a prompt about trades — so he obviously understands this.

Like most GMs, Treliving seemed to be fully aware of the fact that the UFA market would dry up before it even opened. Who knows if — and when — a trade(s) could possibly happen, but it’s the path to meaningful improvement this offseason.

With that said, here are some Leafs offseason notes/thoughts after the first day of UFA:

– At the trade deadline in March, the Leafs finally acquired players with term, and now into the free agency period, the benefits of it are clear to see. With the Brandon Carlo acquisition, in particular, we noted at the time that the defense market was limited this summer; all we need to do is look at today’s prices to underscore this reality. Cody Ceci (31) signed for four years at $4.5 million per season, Brian Dumoulin (33) signed for three years at $4 million per season, and Vladislav Gavrikov (29) signed for 7×7. Martin Fehervary (about to turn 26) signed a seven-year extension worth $6 million per season. Among the above group, only Ceci is right-handed.

The 28-year-old Carlo is not just signed for this season but the one after at an AAV of $3.485 million. He would be worth significantly more on the open market right now. Yes, it was an expensive acquisition cost, but they didn’t just acquire the player; they paid for a highly efficient contract for 2.5 seasons, and that’s not only a deadline move. They will benefit from it for years to come.

– The same can be said for Scott Laughton, who counts for just $1.5 million against the Leafs’ cap this season. The Oilers recently signed Trent Frederic to an eight-year deal worth $3.85 million. Sean Kuraly signed for two years and $1.85 million per season. Christian Dvorak received $5.4 million(!) for one year. Justin Danforth received term on a deal with a $1.8M cap hit. Taylor Raddysh signed for the same $1.5 million cap hit that Laughton carries this season.

All those players cost the same/more, and I believe Laughton is more useful than all of them, in particular due to his penalty-killing abilities and center capabilities. Laughton didn’t produce at all after the Leafs acquired him — and he absolutely needs to be better — but he’s worth a lot more than his current cap hit on the open market right now. Again, it’s part of what the Leafs paid for in the acquisition cost.

– I expect both Laughton (especially in a contract year) and Carlo to be a lot better next season now that they will start with the team from the beginning of camp and their first trades in the league are well behind them. We’ve seen this a million times with deadline acquisitions, and Laughton, in particular, looked shellshocked for nearly a month after the trade. The Leafs certainly need them to be better; their internal improvement will be extremely important moving forward.

– I was surprised that the Leafs didn’t qualify Pontus Holmberg, as Craig Berube seemingly loved him last season. He moved up the lineup regularly, even centering William Nylander at one point in the season. In the playoffs, he regularly moved up to the Leafs’ second line left wing spot alongside Tavares and Nylander.

However, the Leafs were worried about his arbitration case, given how the arbiter values ice time (Holmberg averaged 12:43 per game in the playoffs), and believed he’d get a slightly rich contract. Ultimately, he did as a UFA, signing for $1.55M per season for two years in Tampa Bay.

Holmberg’s a useful player — and I’m not thrilled that the Leafs developed him only to not qualify and let him walk for free — but it’s also reasonable that they didn’t want to pay him that type of salary, considering his offensive limitations and the fact that he has shown himself to be a fourth liner to this point.

– In terms of asset management, it doesn’t sit well with me that they lost a 26-year-old who just signed for over $3 million dollars (total value) on the open market for absolutely nothing. The Leafs own third, fifth, and sixth-round picks next year; is that enough to act like they can punt players who were paid reasonably on the open market?

It’s not a heartbreaking loss in terms of the player himself, but there’s definitely the potential that come the Fall, we’re talking about a Leafs fourth line where we’re looking at a couple of different players on it and wondering why they’re there instead of Holmberg. That said, it’s the first day of free agency. Plenty of time. We’ll see. 

– On the flip side, the Leafs did qualify Nick Robertson, who they routinely don’t play in the playoffs, but he has a good arbitration case, given he’s scored 29 goals across the past two seasons. Scoring goals is an important skill, and Robertson has it. Losing Marner’s scoring makes offensive contributors like him a little more important, even if he’s not a playoff staple. You still have to get to the playoffs, and Robertson produces in the regular season. 

– When it comes to most of these players we’ve talked about, one of the best things the Leafs can do to improve their team moving forward is to clear out players who underperformed or couldn’t positively contribute. David Kampf is the most obvious candidate, given he was healthy scratched and has term on his deal. We’ve talked about Calle Jarnkrok already — he is a decent bet for a bounce-back regular season (which is important for the Leafs more than ever now without regular-season Marner) — but he has proven beyond a doubt that he can’t produce in the playoffs. Robertson is a question, too, if the Leafs aren’t going to play him in the playoffs, but at least he’s just 23 years old.

– If/when the Leafs add Robertson to a forward group that currently features Max Domi, Jarnkrok, and Maccelli, it’s too small overall — a collection of players that really shouldn’t all be on the same team. This isn’t just about clearing cap dollars; it’s about changing the complexion of the forward group that has too many small, empty-calorie players right now.

– Compounding matters is that the most useful free agents remaining are all undersized as well. We profiled Anthony Beauvillier, who would help the team, but he’s small. We profiled Pius Suter as well, although this was before the Leafs acquired Nic Roy, so I’d argue he’s no longer a need. Still, at the right price tag, adding a good player — especially a center — is better than not, but again, Suter is small.

– It would make sense to bring back Max Pacioretty, but I’m sure the negotiation is more about his family and external factors than it is about money.

– It would also be ideal to add some pace/skill to the defense. It’s a hard thing to do, as we’ve already discussed, but this isn’t a blue-line group that’s so good it’s untouchable all summer.

– I did like that the team held onto Dakota Mermis. He battled a tough season, breaking his jaw and getting claimed then reclaimed on waivers. But he can play in the NHL and offers some versatility/utility in different roles. 

– It’s difficult to predict the trade market, but waiting it out for a trade is a fair approach, too. The Leafs can still take on salary and have already made one such move by acquiring Maccelli. There is plenty of time in front of them to improve this roster.

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