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Brendan Shanahan has continued the organizational overhaul with the dismissal of Director of Pro Scouting Steve Kasper and Director of Player Development Jimmy Hughes, with a number of scouts expected to be dismissed shortly as well.

Last summer we spoke to Kasper, and here’s one of the most notable quotes worth revisiting:

[quote_box_center]AB: Does the pro scouting staff measure players with anything other than their “eyeballs”? Does the team use any statistical metrics within their database of players?

SK: No, we are not using a statistical analysis. I am not saying there’s not room for that in the game, but sometimes a player’s contribution does not always show up on a stat sheet. I know a statistical analysis isn’t simply looking at goals and assists, but sometimes a player can play his best game and you don’t see his name anywhere on the scoresheet. My own personal belief is that I like to be there live and see a game myself.[/quote_box_center]

Kyle Dubas recently spoke at the SAS analytics conference about the need for all levels of management and coaching to be on the same page on their thinking processes when it comes to implementing a more analytical approach to decision making. Clearly, Kasper was more of the old management’s paradigm. That’s reason enough to move on.

The pro scouts have done a few good things over the years. Identifying JvR’s potential was one. The Leafs have also grabbed some good bargains late on in the offseason the past few years (to what degree those were a credit to pro scouting, who knows).  While Bernier has not had the year many wanted, that’s a trade most don’t take back for a goaltender most fans didn’t think the Leafs needed at the time.

But the failure to identify what they were actually getting in Clarkson — he wasn’t the power forward he was billed as, and the pro scouting staff missed that he was the product of being in the right place at the right time with two great linemates, and that he couldn’t play top 6 anywhere else — was a massive pro scouting pitfall.

As for the amateur side, Dave Morrison is expected to be retained. It could be because the draft is approaching and to completely rid of the amateur scouts who have been scouting the 2015 draft class all year would put the team at a disadvantage. Morrison’s long-term future isn’t known to us yet, other than he’s staying on for now.

But Morrison can also stand by his work in terms of the number of NHLers the Leafs have drafted. 2006 was when Dave Morrison was promoted to his Director of Amateur Scouting position:

https://twitter.com/thejustinfisher/status/481200769945702400

While some don’t like some of the Leafs safer picks late in the first round and in the 2nd – rightfully so in the case of Biggs, Ross to name a few – the primary issue has come in the number of picks the Leafs have traded away, despite never being a playoff team. (Also, in terms of second round picks, the Leafs traded Jimmy Hayes, their 2nd rounder in 2008, and clearly gave up there too early).

The Leafs have done fairly well between picks 5 and 10 in the draft order with Kadri, Rielly, and the early returns on Nylander. There are no sure bet picks once out of the top 5, so that’s worth noting. They’ve also been pretty productive over the years with late round finds.

Here are some of the relevant statistics.

As for the development side, the Senators are currently going to the playoffs with big contributions from a number of young players who were groomed in their development system and have emerged in a big way, just to name one example from around the League. The Leafs simply haven’t graduated enough players through their system who have gone on to emerge and become impact players with the big club. For that, Director of Player Development Jim Hughes is no longer with the organization. The Leafs have had some promising-looking players knock on the door – Leivo and Percy, for instance – but the breakthroughs just haven’t happened yet from anywhere outside their top 10 picks in Kadri and Rielly.

While Morrison and some of his scouts will remain, it does look like Mark Hunter will revamp the scouting staffs and begin bringing his guys on board. More to come.

 

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