The Toronto Marlies missed out on the opportunity to clinch an automatic divisional semi-final berth due to a dip in late-season form.
Prior to winning their last three games, the Marlies won one of six, missing the chance to capitalize on Cleveland’s slump as the teams battled it out for third place in the North Division. Now, the Marlies must advance through the play-in stage against the fifth-place Rochester Americans.
Regular Season Series
The Rochester Americans stumbled into the post-season by finishing a point above Belleville, but they competed fairly well against the Marlies during the regular season.
Home advantage was key for both teams as neither won on the road during the six-game series. Toronto took the only point earned away from home with an overtime loss in March and recorded the lone shutout the day after in a comfortable 3-0 win.
Most notable was the number of goals scored during the series: the teams shared 39, with Toronto responsible for 21.
Playoff Series
Since the extended playoff format was implemented, the Marlies have yet to win a fourth-versus-fifth best-of-three series. They will be looking to make it third time lucky after losses to Belleville (1-2) and Cleveland (0-2).
The Marlies have won one of four playoff series since the pandemic and will be looking to right that ship with a roster capable of going on a deep run.
Rochester swept Toronto 3-0 the last time these teams met in postseason action. The Amerks have only once competed in the fourth vs. fifth series and brushed aside Belleville 2-0 on that occasion.
Given the sprint nature of this series, game one will yet again prove critical to success. Home advantage was key during the regular season series, and both teams played .500 hockey on the road.
Starting On Time & the Five-on-Five Play
The Marlies’ slow starts cost them dearly last season, and the issue has persisted at times this year. Rochester has outscored Toronto 69-61 in the first period this season, but it’s in periods two and three where Toronto has excelled, scoring 82 and 78 goals, respectively.
Rochester’s record when leading after 20 minutes is 18-5-2 and 2-14-5 when trailing. Scoring first and holding a lead through 20 minutes may well prove the difference.
The Marlies will look to avoid taking penalties, as they should prove the stronger team during five-on-five action. Rochester’s 120 five-on-five goals are the third fewest in the league, and they don’t make it up for it defensively with 146 goals allowed (13th most in AHL). Toronto’s goal differential at five-on-five is zero through 72 regular-season games. Allowing 152 goals is the seventh-most, but their 152 goals scored rank eighth-best.
Special Teams
This is the one area where Rochester owns a definitive edge. The Amerks’ 60 power-play goals were the third-most in the league and led the Eastern Conference. Rochester scored at almost a 1-in-4 pace with the extra attacker and at 21% against Toronto this season (5/24).
The Marlies’ penalty kill will have to step up to the mark to contain a well-oiled Amerks man advantage. Outside of a mid-season resurgence, the Marlies’ power play largely struggled for most of the season. Against Rochester, the success rate was 11%, albeit with the caveat that Toronto possesses greater potential in that regard with the offensive reinforcements in their ranks.
Goaltending
With no back-to-back games in this series, Rochester will turn to Devon Levi between the pipes. He’s undoubtedly the key to Rochester’s success and has the talent to steal a game. Levi’s numbers are nothing to write home about behind a struggling Amerks team, but his play has always elevated a notch in postseason play.
The Marlies have the luxury of two netminders whom the team has complete confidence in, whatever the situation. In a 1A/1B setup, Dennis Hildeby will hold the reins heading into Game 1 on Wednesday evening. There is little doubt that the big Swede will be highly motivated, having enjoyed limited playoff success to date (won just one of four starts). Artur Akhtyamov is a more than capable backup who John Gruden will happily turn to in the event of an injury or dramatic drop in form.
“We are very fortunate to have two outstanding goaltenders,” said Gruden. “We’re more concerned as a staff to make sure we’re playing the right way in front of whoever is in the net. If it’s Dennis or Artie, we are confident either way.”
Offensive Producers
Much of Rochester’s offense revolves around four players after Isak Rosen was traded to Winnipeg. Centerman Konsta Helenius and defenseman Zac Jones are the two main dangers for Toronto. Both finished at a point-per-game pace through 60+ games and were inside the top 13 overall scorers this season. Two-thirds of the points Jones registered were on the power play, so shutting him down will be a focus for the penalty kill.
Riley Fiddler-Schultz and Trevor Kuntar netted 21 goals apiece in the regular season and combined for five goals against Toronto in the six-game series. The former heads into the playoffs in strong form with five points (2G/3A) in the last three games.
The Marlies should be confident about receiving production from top to bottom in their lineup. The additions from the NHL make a huge difference when we consider Gruden dressed a third line of Matthew Barbolini, Jacob Quillan, and Ryan Tverberg over the past weekend.
The Marlies have eight players who scored 14+ goals through the regular season and a first line that combined for 65 goals. Borya Valis scored 15 goals in his rookie year and didn’t even dress for the final regular-season game, which goes to show the depth of the roster.
The X-factor for Toronto might well turn out to be Easton Cowan. He impressed on a line alongside Luke Haymes and Alex Nylander this past weekend and will naturally draw the opponent’s attention.
The Marlies haven’t had a dynamic producer from the blue line since T.J Brennan, but William Villeneuve is capable of stepping up to provide valuable offense. Villeneuve, Henry Thurn, and Noah Chadwick registered 20+ points this season, and Matt Benning added a dimension by producing at .47 ppg through 34 appearances.
Recent Form
How much recent regular-season form counts is up for debate, but the contrast in form is stark heading into this series.
This was comfortably Rochester’s worst season in a while (31-31-10), and they scrambled into fifth spot by earning a lone point through the last five games. Toronto, meanwhile, rebounded after one win in five by defeating Syracuse on the road and Laval twice at home to finish the campaign on a three-game winning streak.
One team is annoyed to be in this play-in series after just missing out on the third spot, while the other is happy to be here. The mindset couldn’t be more different, but it’s debatable if any of that really matters when the puck is dropped in Toronto on Wednesday night.
Series Prediction
With the depth through the Marlies’ forward group, the strength of the netminding, and the return of veterans on the blue line, it’s tough not to favour the fourth-seed Marlies, regardless of blue-tinted glasses.
Rochester has three sources of hope:
- Devon Levi stands on his head.
- Drawing the Marlies into penalties, and their power play continues to dominate.
- Opportunistically feasting on any defensive breakdowns by the Marlies, which has been a factor in their season.
Should Toronto win Game 1, I think they will prove difficult to beat twice in a row, and they would probably sweep the series in Rochester on Friday evening. In a sprint series, though, anything can happen with a single bounce, potentially deciding the outcome with such small margins.
The reality is that a first-round exit to this Amerks team, given the Marlies’ roster, would be a huge disappointment.
Marlies vs. Americans Playoff Series Schedule
| - | Date | Location | Time (EST) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | April 22 | Toronto | 7:00 p.m. |
| Game 2 | April 24 | Rochester | 7:05 p.m. |
| Game 3* | April 26 | Toronto | 4:00 p.m. |
*if necessary
