Maple Leafs guaranteed top-four pick, 20% odds of winning lottery after Game 82 loss to Devils

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Thanks go out to the New Jersey Devils, who started Cory Schneider – long overdue recompense for the Scott Clemmensen debacle on the final day of 2005-06 – and got some spirited performances from their debuting youngsters.

They owed Lou Lamoriello at least that much.

With Garret Sparks in net, Mike Babcock rolling his lines (and TJ Brennan leading the defence in time on ice), the Leafs made sure they did their part tonight, cementing a last-placed finish for the first time since 1984-85.

The Maple Leafs finish short of 30 wins (29) in a full season for the first time since 1990-91 (80-game season) and fall short of 200 goals (197) for the first time in a full season since 1997-98.

A draw will take place for the first three draft positions, which means – if they don’t win it outright – the Leafs’ exact odds of drafting second or third or fourth will change depending on who wins the lottery, at which point the odds increase on a proportional basis for the teams remaining.

But as of today, we know that:

• The Leafs are guaranteed the fourth overall draft choice at a minimum.
• The Leafs have 20% odds of winning the lottery and picking first.
• The Leafs have 47.5% odds of picking fourth — therefore the most likely outcome.
• The Leafs have a 17.5% chance of selecting second overall.
• The Leafs have 15% odds of selecting third overall.