You are forgiven if you didn’t see the first-period result and overall outcome coming, given how this game in Calgary started from the Maple Leafs’ perspective.
The Leafs came out buzzing, attacking in waves and opening up a 5-1 edge in shots. Jack Roslovic beat a defender one-on-one for a dangerous early look, the fourth line put together an offensive-zone shift, and the second line created an opportunity for William Nylander. Auston Matthews tried to jam one home, with Easton Cowan following up on the rebound. The top line was flying.
The momentum completely switched after the third line (McKenna-Sissons-Lettieri) and third pairing, who probably shouldn’t be on the ice at the same time, were hemmed in, leading to a tripping penalty on Dakota Mermis. Toronto killed it off, but Calgary’s extended in-zone possession and puck movement seemed to give them a foothold in the game. That carried over at five-on-five, where the Leafs started turning pucks over and swimming upstream.
Just past the midway point of the first period, Matvei Gridin opened the scoring with a rush shot from outside the faceoff circle that simply has to be stopped short-side, but Sergei Bobrovsky was deep in his net.
Another Easton Cowan turnover led to a second Calgary goal just 1:45 later. It was unclear what Cowan was trying to do; he was stripped before he got it off, but he was about to pass it into the middle, where he had no one. It needed to be chipped up the wall to safety, but the Flames capitalized and buried on a down-low odd-man situation directly off the turnover.
A minute later, Devin Cooley handed the Leafs a chance to respond with a delay-of-game penalty for playing the puck outside the trapezoid. The top unit spent nearly the entire power play in the zone and generated two backdoor looks, both courtesy of Nylander passes. Matthews heeled his attempt, while Kirill Marchenko couldn’t elevate his finish and Cooley’s outstretched skate robbed him.
At the other end, Calgary nearly added another when a puck took an unfavourable bonuce off Darren Raddysh’s skate during a dangerous attack through the middle, but the crossbar bailed the Leafs out.
Before the period was through, Zack MacEwen fought Jacob Middleton, and Cowan followed suit shortly after, dropping the gloves after taking a hit on the wall — probably as much about his frustration boiling over from his turnovers and role in the second Flames goal as the hit itself. Neither Aydar Suniev, who threw the hit, nor Martin Pospisil obliged Cowan by dropping the gloves, earning Cowan a double-minor for roughing.
Cowan really needed a kill to bail him out, but the second period started with an easy goal for the Flames just 25 seconds in. After the Leafs cleared it deep, Troy Stecher allowed Matvei Gridin way too much space in behind him through the neutral zone, giving Gridin room to take a stretch pass, walk in, and measure his shot off the rush. Sergei Bobrovsky, after getting beat short-side in the first, seemed to shade toward that post, leaving him off his angle and the far side open.
Injury was added to insult when Kirill Marchenko took an awkward fall, with his knee folding underneath him. He briefly attempted another shift before leaving the game, putting the lines into a blender and removing one of the Leafs’ most dangerous players when they needed at least three goals.
Bobrovsky was then called for a trip that looked like incidental contact. The Leafs produced a good kill, only to spend the ensuing five-on-five stretch getting completely tilted. They were fortunate the deficit remained at just three.
When the Flames’ push relented, Matthews found himself in alone during a shift with Nylander and Roslovic, but he lost the handle and didn’t get a shot off.
Then, a response arrived from Cowan. After deservedly sitting out a few shifts, he didn’t pout and instead responded like a winner. With an all-business disposition, Cowan stopped up to create time and space, found Morgan Rielly, and worked his way to the back post, where Stecher picked him out with a great slap pass. A big Bobrovsky save at the other end just before the goal set the table, and the game was back on.
A slash on Morgan Rielly sent the Leafs to the power play later in the period, where the first unit generated little beyond a few relatively harmless Raddysh shots. The second unit was much more dangerous, with Cowan twice finding Nick Paul in prime scoring positions—once backdoor with an empty net and once in the slot—but neither chance was converted. After a frustrating first period in which he cost his team two goals, Cowan scored and created enough chances for at least one more.
In the third period, the fourth line supplied an early spark as the Leafs tried to climb back into the game. Brandon Duhaime’s forecheck led to a scramble around the Calgary net, where Zack MacEwen had two opportunities. He bizarrely attempted a between-the-legs finish on the first before his one-timer was blocked on the second. Darren Raddysh’s decision to pass on that second chance was debatable, but the puck needed to get across quicker once he committed to it.
A sloppy Nylander high-sticking penalty interrupted the Leafs’ push, but Bobrovsky delivered a big save on the kill. After a shaky start, Bobrovsky did settle in to keep the game within reach.
A Matthews–Nylander–Roslovic line then pulled Toronto within one with plenty of time left (nearly 14 minutes). Matthews and Nylander combined to win a loose-puck battle, with Matthews emerging out of traffic with it before Roslovic smartly directed the puck toward the back post for Nylander to finish. At 3-2, the Leafs had given themselves a real chance.
They struggled to build on it, in part because they kept sending themselves to the penalty box. MacEwen drew a penalty through sheer effort, only for Matthews to take a marginal delay-of-game penalty to start the power play when he fell and the puck grazed his hand off the faceoff — perhaps a technically correct call, but a frustrating one nonetheless.
Matthews later took a much more avoidable high-sticking penalty as the Leafs were spending some time in the offensive zone. Between his missed breakaway in the second — where he lost the handle and didn’t get a shot off — and two third-period penalties, it wasn’t Matthews’ best night at the office.
Bobrovsky kept the Leafs alive with a good stop on Joel Farabee, as Calgary generated a stronger push after its power play than during it. It was the kind of save that might have given Toronto a platform for one final surge. Instead, the Leafs looked short on energy and execution. More turnovers and sloppy breakouts, and a Roslovic icing, ate into their remaining opportunities to generate a push. Another unsuccessful 6-on-5 followed; despite their productive power play, the Leafs have yet to score late in the game with the goalie pulled this season or look particularly threatening there. Two empty-netters rounded out the 5-2 final.
Post-Game Notes
- It’s a very long grind of a season, and at the same time, things sure can change fast in this league. After their emphatic win in Edmonton, the Leafs were arguably at their highest point since their push back into a playoff spot that culminated in a big win in Colorado last January. This was a sobering night, and not really because of the loss itself. The Kirill Marchenko injury is clearly more concerning than the lost early-season points to a Western opponent; Jim Hiller did not provide a particularly reassuring answer about Marchenko’s status after the game. No team has the depth to easily cope with losing two top-six forwards (their second-best winger and second-best centerman). The Leafs may be about to ask quite a bit more of Gavin McKenna than they’d like to — or, frankly, than he’s fully looked up to handling to date.
- They’re now in a spot where they have to run either Nylander-Matthews-Roslovic / McKenna-Paul-Cowan, or Cowan-Matthews-Roslovic / McKenna-Paul-Nylander. Duhaime-Blueger-MacEwen could become their de facto third line, and they’d have to scramble together a line around some combination of Sissons, Groulx, Lettieri, and potentially Dakota Joshua once he’s recalled. Alternatively, they could also unite Duhaime-Blueger-Sissons as L3, leaving Groulx to center MacEwen and one of Joshua or Lettieri. Whatever route they go, it’s clearly thinning out quickly.
- Easton Cowan just hit the 80-game mark in his NHL career tonight (with a very promising 42 points in those 80 games). Basically, he’s just now approaching the completion of one full NHL season. It feels longer because it’s split across two years, he went on the Calder Cup run, and he’s progressed so quickly this season, but that’s important to keep in mind. He’s still learning time/place and when he needs to simply bail on a play by getting it out/to safety, as we saw multiple times in the first period, including the second Calgary goal. That’s natural, given his experience in the league. He then fought out of frustration, didn’t find a willing combatant, and the Leafs gave one up on that kill. But the response afterward shows his character and why he’s part of the solution here. He usually carries a chipper demeanour and almost always looks like he’s having a great time; his face turned deadly serious/pissed, and he scored right after he was deservedly sat down for a few shifts in the second. Hiller’s response after the game was the correct one, as he basically made the point, in a bit of an exasperated fashion: We obviously can’t be reliant on Cowan always being at his best and helping lead us where we need to go. Not fair to expect from him every single night at his age/experience.
- Sergei Bobrovsky clearly dialed it in when he knew he couldn’t give up a fourth goal, showing the benefit of his experience in those situations, where he doesn’t lose confidence or focus in the net after a few stoppable goals. He has done a good job of stemming the bleeding when he’s given one or two up he’d like back, but at some point, he has to end the bleeding altogether and give up fewer than three. That’s now seven of eight starts with three or more goals against. It’s not been a catastrophe, and John Chayka’s recent point about his history as a slow starter — and this actually being one of his better starts in recent memory — is well-taken (and means he generally needs some time to ramp up). There is clearly a schedule in place they’re sticking to through a busy end to October. However, the schedule is about to lighten up, and if Anthony Stolarz is as dialed on Thursday as he has been the last two starts, it will be hard to deny the argument for rolling with him for a few in a row. The goalie clearly isn’t the make-or-break factor in whether the breakouts click or not, but Stolarz’s puck-handling only helps in that regard.
- Two sloppy high-sticking penalties from Nylander and Matthews greatly hurt the team’s cause in the third period. The Leafs, in general, have to clean up their discipline (five times shorthanded tonight). The officiating is frustrating on many nights, sure, but they’re sixth-worst in the league in shorthanded time per game (5:48). It’s asking too much of the PK, even if the PK has largely handled it with aplomb so far, and it’s killing their momentum at key times in games.
- The Leafs’ tendency, particularly prevalent earlier in October, to hand over easy goals also reared its head a bit in this one. The 1-0 goal was on the goalie, but Cowan gifted the 2-0. The 3-0 PP goal was stoppable but also too easy a look to give up off a simple stretch pass.
- Darren Raddysh deserves plenty of credit for the sheer workload he’s handling and his overall defensive play — especially important in Chris Tanev’s absence. At the other end, he’s still trying to find his groove offensively (in search of his first goal through 14 games now). His pass-shot selection at the offensive blue line is where he needs to sharpen up and find his confidence again. At times, he’ll have screens/traffic in place with a reasonably promising shooting opportunity, only to defer. Other times, he’ll crest the goalie with no traffic in the vicinity.
- There is also a lot to like about Nick Paul’s overall game, but he really has to bear down more, especially knowing the Leafs are probably about to lose another top-six forward. He has scored an empty-netter and one that deflected into the net off his body so far; meaning, he hasn’t shot one by a goalie yet. Tonight, he missed an empty net on a backdoor pass from Cowan and missed the net on a point-blank look from the slot (also set up by Cowan). If you’re playing PP2 and L2 with Nylander/Marchenko, some level of finish is required. We know it’s in him, as he has 17-, 22- and 24-goal seasons to his name, but he’s coming off a seven-goal season (in 51 games) and is now on pace for 11, so he’s got to earn some confidence back in this respect. The Leafs will need it with Tavares and now (likely) Marchenko sidelined.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
