Toronto’s first win in Buffalo in over three and a half years mainly came down to goaltending. Frederik Andersen’s best performance of his Leaf career so far saw him turn aside 40+ shots for the second consecutive game as the Leafs snuck out of the KeyBank Centre with the two points.
Unlike Tuesday’s game versus Edmonton, when the Oilers directed a lot of shots at the Leaf net from the perimeter, Andersen turned aside more than his fair share of grade-A scoring chances in this game. The Sabres were credited with nine high-danger scoring chances in the first period alone, according to Natural Stat Trick, and generated 16 to the Leafs’ 8 over the course of the game.
Andersen has now faced 86 shots over his last two games and stopped 83 of them, taking him up to a .954 save percentage over his last four starts. His performance tonight had a bit of everything: he made a pair of larcenous saves on Zemgus Girgensons and Marcus Foligno, soundly turned aside a number of second and third efforts, and nearly set up an empty-net goal for Nazem Kadri with a well-measured airmail pass from beside the net. In terms of confidence and composure, this is an all-new goaltender from just a week ago.
The first two periods of the game mirrored each other pretty closely – energetic starts by the Leafs and an early goal from Mitch Marner followed by territorial control for the Sabres for the rest of the period. The Leafs looked organized and fast in short bursts and relished opportunities to skate with the Sabres, but they had trouble sustaining their pace of play for anywhere approaching a full period.
In the third period, the Leafs didn’t attempt a shot on goal for the final eight minutes of the game as they took a cautious approach to protecting the lead. It’s worth keeping in mind, when it comes to the raw shot count, that the Sabres received the only two powerplays of the game and Andersen turned aside seven of 43 shots over those four minutes. But there is no question the Leafs struggled to break out cleanly with some frequency in this game and they will need to spend some time in the video room identifying the specific causes of the sudden (significant) uptick in shots against. That’s not something Babcock takes lightly.
That’s not how you protect a lead. To me, you don’t protect. You go and get the next goal. I thought tonight we were cautious and on our heels a little bit too much when we could’ve been after them. That’s part of learning how to play in your own zone. When the other team is behind, they’ll cheat for offence. If you just play right, you’re going to get your chances.
Notes
– Outside of Andersen stealing a game on the road, another positive was the play of the Morgan Rielly and Nikita Zaitsev pairing against the Buffalo Sabres’ top line of Ryan O’Reilly, Matt Moulson and Kyle Okposo game (who entered the game in good offensive form). Both were in the high-50% to mid-60% range in shot attempts in 11-12 minutes of 5v5 play against that line. It’s taken some time, but they look to be developing some chemistry together now – they are starting to make plays out there without thinking (quick D-to-D transfers and out of the zone, indirect reverse passes D-to-D off the boards and out).
– Both of Mitch Marner’s goals were good examples of his hockey instincts and ability to process the game quicker than most players on the ice. After his first two-goal performance in the NHL, Marner now leads the Leafs — and all NHL rookies – in even-strength points (his three goals and eight points have all come at 5v5).
– After a good first game together against Edmonton, the Leafs’ fourth line was snowed under tonight. With control over the matchups at home versus Edmonton, Babcock mostly lined them up against the Oilers fourth line of Pitlick, Lander and Letestu on Tuesday. On the road tonight, they faced a good amount of the Sabres’ second and third lines and the results weren’t good. In addition to the Marcus Foligno goal coming on their shift, Ben Smith was on for just three shot attempts for and 21 against at five on five. Part of the problem: Babcock is using Smith for defensive zone draws, as he was acquired to do, and he isn’t winning them (1 for 4 at 5v5 in the defensive zone, 1 for 3 on the penalty kill, 27% on the dot overall). In his six games with the Leafs, Smith has won just 44.4% of his defensive zone draws (on par with Auston Matthews).
– Also with an off night: the Martin Marincin and Connor Carrick pairing, which hemorrhaged shot attempts against (Marincin: 6 for, 25 against; Carrick: 7 for, 23 against). Marincin, in particular, had a game to forget with a number of soft/unsure plays on the puck leading to turnovers, one of which led to the Sabres’ lone goal of the night. Marincin’s 16:53 of ice time tonight is a season-low.
With their first back-to-back wins of the season, the Leafs are back up to .500 (4-4-3) with the slumping Vancouver Canucks on the docket for Saturday night.
Game In Six
Mike Babcock Post Game
Leafs 2 vs. Sabres 1 – Even Strength Shot Attempts
Leafs 2 vs. Sabres 1 – Shot Locations
