Between the All-star break, the bye week, and a stretch in which four of five Toronto Maple Leafs games are against Columbus and Chicago, it has been a bit of a grind for Leafs fans lately.
It makes looking ahead to the March 3 trade deadline the natural thing to do. It also makes it easy to overlook the fact that Tampa Bay is currently ahead of the Maple Leafs in point percentage. In terms of total points, they are two points back of the Leafs with two games in hand.
As things stand today, it’s conceivable that the Leafs‘ second last game of the season – in Tampa Bay – could determine home-ice advantage.
Of course, there’s a ton of hockey to be played between now and then. The Lightning have 30 games left, and the Leafs have 28. After a light February, Toronto will have a tricky March to navigate, including a west coast trip (they also play the Oilers in Toronto in March), two games each against Carolina and Florida (who are quietly making a run at a wildcard spot), a visit to New Jersey, and a matchup against Colorado at home.
In April, they will end the season with four of their last five games on the road. Those four games are in Boston, Florida, Tampa Bay, and New York (@ Rangers). The last home game is against the Montreal Canadiens on a Saturday, and if the game means anything to the Leafs, it will pretty much be the Habs’ Stanley Cup for the season.
The Leafs are in the middle of the pack in terms of the remaining strength of schedule according to Tankathon, but a good chunk of it is due to their next three games (vs. Chicago x2 and Montreal). Another site lists them at the 11th-most difficult. Some of their “easier” games – such as the Habs, Sens, and Islanders – are against teams that often give them trouble.
Long story short, the race for home ice in the first round is very much on. These are big games coming up, even if the opposition is weaker. Boston has the best home record in the league, followed by Tampa Bay, and then the Leafs. The team should want to give themselves every advantage possible.
While all eyes are on the trade deadline and Auston Matthews is currently out, it’s time to start ramping up the intensity while realizing there is something on the line here. Sheldon Keefe was appropriately upset after their home loss against Columbus, so I don’t think this is lost on him.
Home-ice advantage is not the be-all and end-all in the NHL, but it’s still nice to have. The team with home-ice advantage wins around 55% of the time (no, the irony that the Leafs lost the last two series with home-ice advantage is not lost on me).
We’re also talking about two elite home teams and an opponent that is 11-1 in playoff series over the last three years. Every edge matters.
Notes
– I always find the turn of the calendar year to be a key checkpoint in the season. Since 2023 started, Auston Matthews is top 10 in time on ice per game among forwards (in fairness, he was for the first half of the season, too), and he’s also top 10 among all skaters in points in 2023 so far. He was outside the top 15 in the first half.
Early in the season, it appeared the Leafs wanted to preserve Matthews and Mitch Marner by playing them a bit less. Perhaps in part due to Matthews being hurt, Marner’s 21:18 per game is the third-highest mark of his career so far. In the two seasons in which he’s averaged more than that, he didn’t play over 60 games in either of them – both were cut short due to COVID.
– I understand playing the top players more when chasing the game, but Mitch Marner essentially playing the final five minutes of the game against Columbus was ridiculous. There are other capable players on the team. By the end of the game, he understandably looked gassed and didn’t have any legs when they were breaking out with under a minute left.
I don’t think leaving any player out there that long is the advantage some think it is. William Nylander and John Tavares also played pretty well the entire final five minutes, too.
– It feels like Pontus Holmberg has hit a bit of a rookie wall with four points in 13 games in 2023. He tallied nine points in his first 22 games and was a bit more noticeable and dangerous. I think he really surprised some opponents with how strong he is on his stick, and he was able to cause some turnovers and make some plays.
It has also been a struggle to provide him with proper linemates. We mentioned last week that he has been playing a lot with Zach Aston-Reese, who is a nice pro but produces about zero offense. The other spot has been a revolving door of replacement-level hockey players, at best. A few weeks ago, when he played with William Nylander briefly, he had a few scoring chances that he didn’t finish. He also took two penalties that game and was promptly moved back down the lineup.
– The entire bottom six has generally struggled to produce so far in 2023. As a whole, by my count, in the 17 games this calendar year, they have 10 even-strength goals, and Pierre Engvall has four of them. Pontus Holmberg has two, Zach Aston-Reese has two, Dryden Hunt has one, and Joey Anderson has one. Alex Kerfoot has one goal this year, but it was on the power play – again, the “versatility” the organization extols about him is a load of hot air. He is not versatile if he moves down the lineup and doesn’t do much of anything.
– The top six have been full marks, though. We already mentioned Mitch Marner. William Nylander and John Tavares have 19 points each in 17 games. Auston Matthews racked up seven goals in 10 games before getting hurt. Michael Bunting and Calle Järnkrok have chipped in 11 and 10 points apiece. They are generally winning their minutes and outscoring opponents along the way.
– In terms of point percentage, the Leafs are 13th so far this year with a plus-six goal differential. Missing Auston Matthews for almost half of those games, they have been treading water a bit. Tampa Bay is sixth in points percentage over this span. Boston is fourth. The top team is the New York Rangers, who have a +21 goal differential in that time.
Quotes
“When is the last time you saw Willy Nylander retaliate or something like that? I kind of like it, to be honest. If they want to take runs at him every now and again, he is going to make the other team aware of it.”
– Sheldon Keefe on Nylander’s retaliation penalty vs. Columbus
I kind of went both ways on this one. On one hand, I like William Nylander showing some jam. On the other hand, there was really very little to the original hit. It wasn’t a big hit, it wasn’t dirty, and he responded with a little cheap shot against literally one of the smallest defensemen in the league. If he does it against better players, too – particularly on teams that they will actually play come playoff time – I will be all for it. Maybe this opens the door for more of it, which is great if it happens. But if this is it, I didn’t really get it. I don’t think it exactly worried or sent a message out to Charlie McAvoy or Victor Hedman.
“We haven’t seen it in its full form yet. What I have seen of late on that front: The line with Kampf and Engvall, regardless of who has been with them on the other wing, has really begun to play well and build some momentum for themselves.
On the fourth line, we have really tried to give our own internal players a lot of opportunities. Alex Steeves is there now. Pontus Holmberg is back up there. Alex Kerfoot was down there. It shows his versatility. Kerfoot was down there and now he is up on the second line with Auston out.
For me, I would like to continue to see some growth from our own guys with the Marlies that have been given opportunities and chances there and really see them start to run with it.”
– Kyle Dubas on the Leafs’ bottom six in comparison to Tampa Bay and Boston’s
It’s fair to say that Pierre Engvall – David Kampf is a solid combo. They have generally done well together dating back to last season. It’s also fair to say that Engvall has been a playoff no-show for the Leafs for three straight playoffs, and Kampf is playing at a 26-point pace, which is exactly what he produced last season. There is very little juice to the unit if this is the *third* line. The fourth line has been a revolving door.
“I know certain guys have voiced what they believe. I’m pretty indifferent. I think the best team usually wins. With our division, it’s a tough group to get out of, but I think the best team usually moves on. So it’s up to the team.”
– Auston Matthews on the NHL playoff format
The playoff format with set divisional brackets is awful, but if you are a Leaf, this is the right attitude to have. There’s no point in whining about it. If he did, it would probably come across as defeatist. The best teams simply take the approach of not caring who is in their way.
Tweets of the Week
There are a lot of desirable qualities in Sandin’s game but he isn’t fast or agile enough to consistently gain separation and he isn’t big or strong enough to withstand consistently heavy forechecks.
But a lot of people aren’t ready for this conversation.
— Nick Richard (@_NickRichard) February 12, 2023
Rasmus Sandin turns 23 in a month and has only played 137 games in the league to this point. There’s still plenty of time for him to figure things out, and he’s definitely flashed promise at times. But his inability to handle strong forechecks is a real issue and has been a constant theme for him. I’d venture a guess that it’s one of the Leafs’ biggest concerns with him this year going into the playoffs.
Part of the conversation as well – which is similar to the one around Travis Dermott a few years ago – is what is he bringing. He doesn’t penalty kill, and he sees some secondary power-play time but doesn’t do much with it (he has zero power-play points in 16 games in 2023 so far). The power play struggled when Morgan Rielly was hurt, too.
The coaching staff shelters his minutes at five-on-five. It’s hard when one of the six defensemen is more or less strictly a soft-minute five-on-five player who isn’t producing (two points total in those 16 games).
Games like tonight I find it hard to blame the officiating even if they missed a call. Beat the last place Columbus Blue Jackets in your own barn man.
— Аlex Hobson (@AHobsonMedia) February 12, 2023
It feels like complaining about the officiating has become a bit of a crutch for the fanbase. At some point, the team has to just play through it, and certain players on the Leafs need to stop complaining about it. Engaging in heated arguments with the refs every game is a waste of time and energy. This is not a new thing in any sport. Constantly yelling at the refs rarely goes well for the complainant.
🖊 We’ve signed defenceman Conor Timmins to a two-year contract extension
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) February 9, 2023
At first glance, I thought this might be a little too much on Conor Timmins‘ new AAV, but I looked around at the comparables, and it’s very much in line with what we usually see. The best comparison might be Tampa Bay’s Nick Perbix, who just signed for two years at an annual average of $1.125 million.
Now, unlike Timmins, Perbix is actually a regular, although his ice time has been in decline and he’s generally been their sixth defenseman. Similar to Timmins, they would probably prefer someone else in the lineup at playoff time. It’s also a contract the Leafs can completely bury with no repercussions should he struggle. Timmins now has some certainty, but it is up to him to seize the opportunity.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. Building on last week’s point about mixing players like Alex Steeves and Adam Gaudette into the lineup, we need time to see how things settle in (just like with Bobby McMann). Every single season, we see players come in for the first week or so and play like their hair is on fire. The real question is: How does their game settle in after playing night after night in the NHL? Steeves hasn’t done too much yet, but I’d give him at least another week. I’d give Gaudette a look next.
2. Among all the players in the bottom six, I think the only thing I can say with any sort of certainty is that Pierre Engvall – David Kampf is a pretty good duo. The rest of it is up in the air. Pontus Holmberg has generally been fine, but if they add a proper 3C, I don’t know how he stays in the starting 12. Zach Aston-Reese does his job and not too much else (which is somewhat fine as the 12th forward). Alex Kerfoot slots in somewhere. Nobody else has really made a legit case for themselves.
3. Again, I think this is why it’s worth seeing Pontus Holmberg on the wing for an extended period of time. If they add another center of note – and they really should try to – does that mean Holmberg is bumped out? In all likelihood, he is one of their 12 best overall forwards, but how does he hold up on the wing? It would be nice to have a better idea about this before the deadline passes.
4. When Auston Matthews does return, I think I’d be interested to see him slot between William Nylander and Calle Järnkrok, which would keep the Michael Bunting – John Tavares – Mitch Marner unit together. I am not positive this is the optimized look, but it’s definitely a shakeup I’d be interested in seeing and learning more about.
5. When asked about his pending UFAs, I think Kyle Dubas was right to suggest that he wants to see how the year plays out before committing to anything, particularly in regard to Michael Bunting. He’s in the middle of a decent season and should finish with his second-straight 20+ goal campaign. It’s worth noting, though, that his production has taken a slight dip (from .8 points per game to .69), he’s shooting a bit less, and he’s taking more penalties.
Bunting turns 28 in September and has certainly benefited from playing with superstars for most of his time here. It’s a lineup spot where a lot of players can be productive. Unfortunately, he was banged up at playoff time last season, making it a little tough to evaluate his postseason (that said, most players are banged up heading into the playoffs!).
It’s worth noting he has only played 159 NHL games. I’d simply wait it out and see where things stand whenever the season ends.
