The Maple Leafs only play two games over the next week, which is time I will use to my advantage for some articles currently in the works.
For now, we’ll jump into the extended notes for the usual Monday Leafs Notebook.
Notes
– While the Leafs own a great record without Auston Matthews so far (5-1), it’s important to note the calibre of their 5v5 play before the conversation gets too carried away. They are 30th in 5v5 shot attempts since Matthews came out of the lineup at a lottery level of 42.67%. They are also getting out-chanced, and they’ve been out-scored 6-7.
Their power play and two OT wins have carried them through, but obviously, it isn’t a sustainable approach. Missing an elite, play-driving center has a significant domino effect at 5v5. The Leafs were 10th in shot-attempt share with Matthews in the lineup and up 30-21 in 5v5 goals before his injury.
– A big part of it is not just Matthews’ absence but also the situation with the replacement. An injured Max Domi has missed multiple practices due to “maintenance” and has gotten up slowly a number of times in games, which is very much out of the norm for him. With Domi between Knies and Marner, the Leafs own 36.76% of shot attempts in just 40 minutes together, and the line hasn’t scored a goal.
The Leafs clearly recognized the struggles and tried to shift it around by moving John Tavares to play with Mitch Marner and splitting the difference, to some degree, by bumping Matthew Knies down to play with William Nylander (with Bobby McMann up). It’s a logical thought process there, working with what they have.
– The Leafs flipped Domi and David Kampf in the third period against Edmonton despite trailing by a goal. Domi is clearly hurt, which is compounding the issue, but it’s also a nod to Kampf, who takes a ton of heat. He won’t produce much relative to his cap hit – we know that by now, as he has been here long enough. But Kampf has stepped up on the penalty kill in Matthews’ absence (he is on PK1, and the Leafs are over 82% on the penalty kill since Matthews went down). He is a legitimate NHL center, even if he doesn’t score. He defends well, can get the puck up ice, and is a strong faceoff man.
The entire league is facing a center shortage; there are very few teams in the league that are genuinely deep up the middle after their top two centers. Kampf has at least been able to move up and down the lineup while giving the Leafs competent shifts. He’s effectively seventh among their forwards in even strength time on ice per game since Matthews went down (Alex Steeves played more at evens in his one game and is “technically” seventh, but it’s really Kampf). He’s leading all forwards in shorthanded time on ice since Matthews’ injury.
– As of Sunday, November 17, the Leafs are second in the Atlantic Division, a point behind the Florida Panthers, but they’ve played one more game. They have a .632 points percentage; the next highest is Tampa at .594, while Florida sits at .694.
Last November 17 (2023), the Leafs got off to a fair enough start in the standings with a 9-5-2 record and a .622 points percentage. Still, they were third in their division at that point, miles away from Boston’s 12-1-2 (.867 points percentage) and even behind a Florida team that started the season without Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour (.676 points percentage).
The season before, the Leafs again got off to a good enough start, relatively speaking, with a .611 points percentage on November 17, 2022. Still, it placed them in third, as Tampa recorded a .618 points percentage and Boston a .882 points percentage following a ridiculous 15-2-0 start. They were third in the division on November 17, 2021, too, and the Panthers were in first amid a 122-point, President Trophy-winning season.
The point is that American Thanksgiving is approaching, and the division is very much within reach despite the Panthers already rattling off a seven-game winning streak. In part because they’ve had elite competition get off to ridiculous starts (back-to-back President Trophy winners in the Atlantic), the Leafs have not been able to truly compete for the division. They have usually been out of the race by American Thanksgiving and end up playing an extremely difficult opponent in the first round. So far, they are very much in the race to win the Atlantic.
– Bobby McMann is up to a 27-goal pace over 82 games while shooting a normal 12.8 percent (he shot 12.7 percent last season). He has a great shot, and if he gets a clean look, he’s a good finisher, but it’s his speed and size that stand out on a team without a ton of speedsters or size up front.
On his first goal against Edmonton, McMann grabbed the puck on the boards at the hashmark in the Leafs’ end, skated to center, got it deep, and then went around the little interference from the Oilers defenseman. McMann has so much speed that he easily beat it and got to the puck on time. He threw a hit and started a turnover sequence that ultimately ended with him banging home on a rebound. It was a great sequence all around to create a goal off a simple dump-in thanks to his size and speed.
– Conversely, Matthew Knies is playing at nearly a 35-goal pace, but he’s shooting over 22%. He has been great all-around and manages to impact games even when he’s not producing points, so it’s not a big concern. Still, some regression is likely coming there, especially if he is taken off the top power-play unit when Matthews returns.
Knies was full marks in the comeback against Washington, creating the second goal, scoring a disallowed goal, preventing the empty-net goal, drawing the penalty, and causing havoc in front to draw in multiple defenders and create space for the Rielly-to-Marner pass.
– Bad starts have become a concern recently. The Oilers went on three 2v1s early in the first period, scoring on one. The Leafs got tilted in the first period against Ottawa and Washington, and in all three games, they gave up the first goal.
In the Ottawa and Edmonton games, the Leafs handed them easy chances for early goals, too. I would like to see the Leafs get healthy before deeming it a genuine concern, but for a team that wants to be a forechecking team, they should be able to get pucks in deep and set the tone for the game rather than getting outworked and giving up easy goals in three straight games.
– Marner and his 10 points in six games without Matthews are rightfully getting a lot of attention, as are Tavares and his four goals (six points, including some really big goals). Rather quietly, Morgan Rielly has seven points in those six games, providing some real “secondary” scoring while half the forward group produces essentially nothing. Rielly’s big-time cross-ice pass to Marner tied the game against Washington.
I don’t think Rielly has played his best yet, and he’s still on pace for 56 points. His four goals are also noteworthy after he never scored again following his suspension last season and struggled in the playoffs.
Quotes
“People ask me how the Leafs are different this year, and I say culture and chemistry is the right ‘Double C. It makes a difference. We, right now, have what I call the perfect triangle (with) the Toronto Maple Leafs. I have no idea what happened over the last 10 years, (but) I know that culture, I know that chemistry is there (now). That (became clear) when I really observed (Leafs president) Brendan Shanahan and (GM) Brad Treliving, and I looked at the chemistry they had, and it was phenomenal. The chemistry wasn’t quite there with the previous head coach (Sheldon Keefe), so after the season we brought in Craig Berube to that triangle of chemistry.”
– Keith Pelley on what’s different about the Leafs this season
I thought it was worth noting Pelley’s quote about the disconnect between Sheldon Keefe and the management group, along with the suggestion that Craig Berube is more aligned with their views. We did see Keefe evolve as last season went along in certain areas, but I think it’s clear that Berube and Treliving more closely share the same values in terms of size, physicality, playing heavy, grinding out games, etc.
It’s also noteworthy to flag the very positive review of Brendan Shanahan, given that some believe he may be on thin ice.
“I mean, you just hear him talking. I don’t see what he’s doing back there or whatever. But I think it’s great. Sometimes it’s called for and the team needs a little bit of a wake-up call. That’s great.”
– William Nylander on what it’s like getting scolded by an animated Craig Berube against Ottawa
Ultimately, William Nylander played 21:48 against Ottawa, a game in which he committed some poor turnovers/fly-bys. It was the most he played in any game in the season to that point (he beat it the next game against Washington).
At the end of the day, a coach can scream until he is blue in the face, but actions speak louder than words, and I’m not sure it’s grabbing a star like Nylander’s attention when this is how it plays out. Earlier in the season, when Nylander’s minutes were down, he was vocal about it with the media. Ice time is really the great equalizer.
“I like it a lot.
We made the switch thinking about a shutdown pair against the top lines and top players. They have done a great job. They have great chemistry together. They defend well with physicality, sticks, and blocking shots.
They break pucks out under pressure, which is one thing I have really noticed about them. They are good at absorbing hits, using each other on breakouts, and making little plays to get the puck out of our zone.
It has been an important part of the game. When teams are coming hard with forechecks, they do a good job of getting the puck stopped there and finding a way to get it out.”
– Craig Berube on what he likes about the Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev pairing
I wrote about this pairing last week and discussed them further in the podcast, but in the absence of a true top-flight defenseman, I think this is the best way for the Leafs to gain a noted advantage with their defense group.
McCabe-Tanev has the chance to be an elite shutdown pairing. You need a horse on the back end or a true shutdown pairing to lean on if you plan to get through the playoffs (and the Leafs previously had one at times with Jake Muzzin, but he almost always got hurt).
Even with Matthews missing about half of their games together so far, McCabe-Tanev are still winning their minutes and out-chancing opponents. It will only get better when he returns.
Tweets of the Week
In the 6 games without Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner has had five multi-point nights.
The McMann-Tavares-Marner line helped keep Connor McDavid to a minus-3 rating, McDavid's worst plus/minus since Feb. 23.
— luke fox (@lukefoxjukebox) November 17, 2024
Once again, how can you look at what Marner does without Matthews – and Matthews without Marner last season – and say, “We should staple these two at the hip” when they are both in the lineup? They can clearly produce when apart and drive their own lines. They should play together in critical moments and in tough matchups, but it doesn’t need to be an automatic pairing no matter the situation, which is what it was before Matthews’ injury.
Maple Leafs F Calle Järnkrok underwent groin and sports hernia surgery today and is listed as month-to-month.
— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) November 18, 2024
This has been a really unfortunate situation with Calle Jarnkrok, with a notable impact on the Leafs’ depth. In the past few weeks, the Leafs have been running a third line featuring the likes of Nick Robertson, Pontus Holmberg, David Kampf, Alex Steeves, and Max Domi. Those players have combined for one goal so far this season. Steven Lorentz has three goals/four points in 19 games and is setting the pace in bottom-six production.
Jarnkrok has struggled to produce in the playoffs, but he is a legitimate NHL contributor. Over the past two seasons with the Leafs, he has won his minutes 40-32 and 33-22 at 5v5 and hit double digits in goals both seasons. This is a big loss for the Leafs relative to their other options, and even if he does manage to return at some point this season, it’s hard to know what they would even get out of Jarnkrok. It’s a shame all around.
Saturday Headlines
2025-26 Salary cap is scheduled to be approx $92.5M, but there are going to be conversations about taking it higherhttps://t.co/4YboZ01pbc— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) November 17, 2024
Friedman speculated that the cap could push $95-97 million next season, a huge development for a Leafs team with Marner as a pending unrestricted free agent. While Knies is also an RFA and is enjoying a breakout season thus far, it is of far less concern, given he is an RFA. They will find a resolution there one way or the other. But Marner is a UFA, and the price is only going up at this rate, especially as he carries the team through Matthews’ injury.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. I think the defense is currently paired up sensibly. Last week, I noted that Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev/Morgan Rielly–Jani Hakanpaa/Oliver Ekman-Larsson–Conor Timmins would be the pairings I’d go with, provided Hakanpaa could handle it. The coaching staff limited his minutes and ran with McCabe quite heavily – his 20:04 minutes per game at even strength since Matthews’ injury is over two minutes more than the next-highest Leafs defenseman (Rielly at 17:49). I’d keep these pairs rolling moving forward. I have no real notes here; it makes sense as is, and I like the three lefties and three righties. We don’t need to overthink it.
2. I think it’s difficult to configure the eventual line combinations without knowing the health of Max Domi or Auston Matthews. If Matthews is out, the lines essentially have to remain as they are, except they’re simply subbing in Steeves for Reaves, more or less. They’d have to keep the top two lines together, and Kampf is their third-best center at that point.
If Matthews does return soon, I’d go straight back to reuniting the top line with Matthews, Knies, and Marner, in part because the Leafs have been out-possessed recently and in part because the Leafs don’t have nine good enough forwards to justify splitting up their top three forwards across three lines. It’s untenable to look at those players and tell one to carry Holmberg, Robertson, or even Domi when they don’t need to force this upon them. They can simply reunite the Knies-Matthews-Marner line, play McMann with Tavares and Nylander – where McMann has been successful – and put Domi at 3C with Robertson and Holmberg, leaving a Dewar – Kampf – Lorentz fourth line (which I’d like to see anyway).
I’d like to see the Leafs explore splitting up Matthews and Marner and spreading out across three lines, but it’s tough to justify it when half their forward group is playing as they are.
3. As tempting as it is right now, I would push back against calling up Nikita Grebenkin or Fraser Minten. Both are promising prospects off to great starts with the Marlies, but for now, that’s all it is. They need time to work through learning to be pros, grinding through games, and managing the ups and downs when their play inevitably cools off. If their play does not cool some 40+ games through the season, we could argue they might be too good for the league and are ready to come up.
The worst thing the team could do is rush their prospects. Nick Robertson, for example, never played more than 28 games in an AHL season. Part of playing in the AHL is learning to manage when struggling, contributing in different ways outside of the scoresheet, and exposure to development situations (closing games, penalty kill, tough matchups, etc.). Don’t rush them.
4. I think I’d like to see the Leafs, while injured up front, pair up Nylander and Marner together a little more often to try to swing the momentum in-game. They did it against Edmonton, assembling a Nylander – Tavares – Marner line for a shift. They can circle back with a Knies – Domi/Kampf – McMann line after, which is also a fun one and shouldn’t expose them on the shift after.
The bottom line is that there aren’t too many forwards on the Leafs doing much of anything right now. We have seen long stretches where they can’t sustain any offensive pressure or make a pushback as a result. At that rate, load up a line in hopes of changing the game.
5. Even with a bunch of time off for the Leafs between each of their next four games, I think I’d still be splitting the goalie starts. It’s a long season; both are playing well, and there is no need to overplay one or the other at this point. They are both good goalies, even if one is playing better at the moment.
