Auston Matthews isn’t quite ready to return for this Atlantic Division showdown between the surging Maple Leafs and the slumping Florida Panthers, who have won four and lost four in a row, respectively (7:30 p.m. EST, Sportsnet).
No Matthews means the lineup remains untouched from Sunday’s 3-2 win over Utah outside of a goalie swap (Anthony Stolarz starts tonight vs. his former team). The challenge is clearly different and more significant tonight on the road, away from last change and with the Panthers’ calibre of depth up front.
If Paul Maurice hard matches Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart against the Tavares-Marner line, it creates a tall task in the matchups for the Leafs‘ makeshift middle six lines, one of which features three forwards who were all in the AHL just a little over a week ago. Verhaeghe — Bennett — Tkachuk has plenty of scoring talent and the ability to feast on the opposition territorially, with a 57% xGF at five-on-five so far this season.
That means the Leafs‘ strong blue-line play, five-man defensive structure, superb goaltending, and sharp special teams need to remain in place in what appears to be their final game without Matthews, who is taking a few more days to ramp up to game readiness. That has largely been the Leafs‘ formula for success during this 7-1-0 run without the captain, as the team has won seven of eight despite a 43% shot attempt share at five-on-five (30th in the NHL since Nov. 4).
Despite the shot attempt deficit, the Leafs have owned 50.74% of the expected goals in Matthews’ absence as their ability to limit high-danger chances against (51.9%) and stay patient in games offensively has been the foundation on which their recent success has been earned. More of the same will be needed tonight against a hungry Panthers team that has scored at a high level at five-on-five but has struggled to avoid costly mistakes defensively.
Game Day Quotes
Paul Maurice on Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz, and Steven Lorentz receiving their Cup rings:
There was Anthony’s game during the year, and his personality. [Lorentz’s] shot tip versus Tampa was a big, big goal. [OEL’s] play through the whole thing.
You have these great memories that you don’t live in every day, and then you get these awesome reminders. You show up to the rink, you love these guys, and you are happy for them. You wish they were here, but you understand why they’re not. You get these nice little reminders of a very special time in your life.
Maurice on whether he’s surprised by Anthony Stolarz’s success in Toronto:
No. He plays exactly like he played for us. Exactly. That’s him.
He played on maybe some tough teams. I am not being disrespectful to the teams he played for, but they were in different parts of their programs. The Florida program and Toronto program are pretty solid. We are going to play a pretty good game in front of you.
I think (Panthers goalie coach) Robb Tallas is fantastic at what he does. He can find what a player is great at and maximize that. It was good for him to work with Sergei (Bobrovsky) and watch Sergei’s program. They had a wonderful relationship.
He was incredibly consistent with his game. He didn’t work in a lot of off nights. Our schedule wasn’t as compressed last year. We would’ve played him far more, but our priority #1 was rhythm for Bobrovsky.
If he was in our schedule this year, we have 14 sets of back-to-back games. Those are 14 before you even get out of the gate. We are probably going to throw another 15 on top of that just based on his play.
I am not surprised. I don’t think he was lucky with us. He worked his ass off. He understands his game. He has a really good team in front of him.
It is almost his first chance to show how good he is.
Maurice on Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s understated physicality:
When you play in the #1 hole as he did his entire career, there are times when you conserve a little bit. You can’t be running around finishing every check. It is not a really big part of your game. He is playing two minutes on the top power play and playing against the other team’s best from game to game.
With us, he started in the top four because of injuries. He played with [Kulikov] at the end, and Kuli is a physical player. You also then play against more physical players — the third and fourth lines of other teams — so that is the way the game is played. He had no problem playing the game like that.
He was a hell of a defenseman before he got hurt. He is a hell of a defenseman now. He just had to get healthy and play.
Maurice on his team’s first 22 games:
What we thought we’d be good at, we’ve been good at. What we’ve struggled with, we’ve probably struggled a little more with.
We are not as strong defensively from our net to our forwards as I would like us to be. Our numbers were pretty good by the end of the year as we worked towards that.
We are probably scoring a little more than I thought we might. I am not getting too particularly excited about that because it ebbs and flows.
Favourite word in coaching is potential. We have the potential to get better.
Maurice on the Maple Leafs under Craig Berube:
I don’t watch them play enough. I know it is heresy up there, but if they are not involved in one of our prescouts…
Depending on the schedule we have or the weight of the game, I’ll go back and watch their last game or two, or I’ll go back and pick a team that plays like us from a systems point of view. We have a really good pre-scout guy, and he is going to give me about 80 clips of the Leafs. I am going to sit through them. What we’ll learn will be tonight on the ice.
Every coach has an affinity for a certain style of game and systems. While the Maple Leafs look slightly different than the St. Louis Blues, that is more personnel-based. The structure of what they’re trying to do and how they are going to play the game is very, very similar.
Craig Berube on his stated goal of “initiating” against the Panthers tonight:
We play our game. We just go out and focus on playing our game: get our forecheck going and be physical. We want to initiate as much as possible tonight.
Berube on his level of respect for the Panthers’ recent accomplishments:
For a team to win a Stanley Cup, you have to get some bounces to go your way. There is a little luck involved, but you make your own luck by playing your game. I think Florida does that extremely well. They have an identity, and they play to it. That didn’t change throughout the playoffs. They played a certain way night in and night out. It is a hard, heavy game. You have to respect that.
Steven Lorentz’s tips for scoring on friend Sergei Bobrovsky:
Don’t shoot at his chest. Don’t shoot anywhere, really. Great goalie. Better human being.
I got to know him last year and would warm him up. It was just a little thing, but when I was in the lineup, with that little part I could contribute, he made me feel like I was the world to him. It is a little bond that you can’t duplicate. It is something that we formed over time.
Going right to the Finals, there were little tricks and tips he would show me. I am not going to share those. Hopefully, I can use them against him. Maybe he was low-key telling me, knowing I was going to one day shoot against him, and he was going to flash the leather or something.
He is a great guy and a great goalie. It is going to be a good test. We are going to have get a lot of pucks to the net, and we are going to have to get some bounces.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson on receiving his Cup ring:
Great feeling. A lot of emotions, to be honest with you, coming into the room, seeing the guys, and going through your head what you went through last year with the battles with the group. A lot of emotions, but also, a lot of fun.
Head-to-Head Stats: Maple Leafs vs. Panthers
In the 2024-25 regular season statistics, Florida holds the advantage in three out of five offensive categories and three out of five defensive categories.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#74 Bobby McMann — #91 John Tavares — #16 Mitch Marner
#89 Nick Robertson — #29 Pontus Holmberg — #88 William Nylander
#71 Nikita Grebenkin — #39 Fraser Minten — #92 Alex Nylander
#46 Alex Steeves — #24 Connor Dewar — #18 Steven Lorentz
Defensemen
#22 Jake McCabe — #8 Chris Tanev
#44 Morgan Rielly — #95 Oliver Ekman-Larsson
#2 Simon Benoit — #25 Conor Timmins
Goaltenders
Starter: #41 Anthony Stolarz
#60 Joseph Woll
Extras: Jani Hakanpää, Philippe Myers
Suspended: Ryan Reaves (three games remaining)
Injured (IR): Auston Matthews, Max Domi, Matthew Knies
Injured (LTIR): Calle Jarnkrok, Dakota Mermis, Max Pacioretty, David Kampf
Florida Panthers Projected Lines
Forwards
#17 Evan Rodrigues — #16 Aleksander Barkov — #13 Sam Reinhart
#23 Carter Verhaeghe — #9 Sam Bennett — #19 Matthew Tkachuk
#27 Eetu Luostarinen — #15 Anton Lundell — #25 Mackie Samoskevich
#10 AJ Greer — #92 Tomas Nosek — #70 Jesper Boqvist
Defensemen
#42 Gustav Forsling — #5 Aaron Ekblad
#77 Niko Mikkola — #7 Dmitry Kulikov
#88 Nate Schmidt — #26 Uvis Balinskis
Goaltenders
Starter: #72 Sergei Bobrovsky
Spencer Knight
