MLHS’ Anthony Petrielli joined The Fan Morning Show to discuss Brad Treliving’s reported interest in John Klingberg, Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s ice time, Morgan Rielly’s season to date, and whether the 2024-25 Maple Leafs are better than the 2023-24 Maple Leafs.
Petrielli on the team’s power-play woes:
If it is not the top reason they haven’t won more than one playoff series in this era, it has to be in the top two or three. It has been bad.
On the first opportunity against Dallas, it was great. They hit the post three times. They generated some good looks. They were in control. As you go along, though, they got the second opportunity, and it was more in line with what we typically see on the power play.
At one point, they called the timeout in the middle of it, won the faceoff, and the shot taken off of it was a Marner one-timer from the blue line. What was the plan? Did they write that on the board — to set up a Marner one-timer from the blue line? They won the faceoff, so there was no scramble. It was a clean play.
It is a small example, but that is what it has been like for the last little bit. What are they trying to do? No one knows, and not in a good way, as though we are on the edge of our seats. I don’t understand what they are trying to do.
They are very content to spend a lot of time in the far areas of the ice. It is probably going to be worth a deeper dive in the coming weeks as the struggles mount, but if we look at when they were really successful — and they did have a top-ranked PP with the exact same guys a number of times during the regular season — they were getting pucks to the inside.
The handedness is there, and you will see a guy going downhill once in a while. They are still talented enough to be reasonable percentage-wise in their last 10 games. Matthews has a great shot. If he lets a couple rip on the power play per game, chances are, they are going to find the net at a reasonable clip. But there are no set plays in terms of getting pucks to the front of the net that is anything other than a shot from distance. There is nothing in terms of getting a bumper-type of play.
If we check back a few years ago, you guys probably remember that they used to have a play where Marner was in the down-low corner, would take a pass from the half-wall, and immediately bump it to Tavares in the slot for a one-timer. They don’t do any of that type of stuff anymore. It is just Marner up at the point or the guys at the half-wall touching the boards. Everything is so far drawn out.
The handedness all makes sense, and everyone, in theory, is in the right spot. But the plan once they get the puck is just way off.
Petrielli on the Leafs‘ reported interest in bringing John Klingberg back:
If it is a flyer, it wouldn’t bother me, as long as it is on a fully-buriable contract, should he not be right or things go south. They could just move on without any sort of penalty.
At this point, the power play is what it is. OEL has given them essentially nothing on the power play — he has one power-play point, and it was against the Islanders on the Bobby McMann goal with three minutes left where he shot wide, which may or may not have been on purpose, and McMann finished the rebound off the boards. That is his one power-play point. And Morgan Rielly has struggled on it.
The one thing Klingberg is generally good at is producing offense from the point. He has a great shot. He has almost as many goals as Rielly in around 200 fewer games. He owns a bomb, and he is good at walking the line. He has some deception in his game where he is able to pull PKers and move things around.
Rielly isn’t causing other teams issues or troubling anyone with his shot. As much as Marner can bring more deception and move guys around, you’ll run into the same shooting situation with him if he continues to play there.
The Leafs‘ doctors are going to have to go through it, but if they say he is healthy and good to go, and it is buriable, I don’t see any harm in it. But I am not going to sit here, cross my fingers, and pray he is the saviour.
Petrielli on Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s 21:04 time-on-ice average this season:
It is a huge concern.
In the first few months of the season, almost a game didn’t go by where he didn’t line someone up and was very engaged physically. He almost had pest-like qualities to him, which was kind of pleasantly surprising to see. If you think back to the last month or so, where has it been? A large part of that is that he is playing too much.
We saw the recipe for what OEL is at this point in his career on a Cup contender. He was the fifth defenseman in Florida at the end of the day. He contributes a little bit of everything. He hopped onto their power play at one point, including moving onto the top unit in the Stanley Cup Finals, and he was very good there. He will chime in as a penalty killer — probably not as a top-two units guy, but more if one of those guys is hurt or took a penalty, and you need someone to fill the minutes. With a little bit of sheltering, offensively, you try to get some puck movement and a little production.
That is what he is. He is not a 21-minute top-four defenseman at this point in his career. I don’t think they’ve really paid him to be one. $3.5 million isn’t 21 minutes, top-four money. It is really good fifth defenseman money, which is what I think he is.
He is clearly playing too much and is a little over his head in those minutes. He is not really making an impact at this point.
Petrielli on the play of Morgan Rielly this season:
At this time last year, I would’ve [been less concerned] given he had been so good in the playoffs. But last spring was arguably his worst playoff performance as a Leaf, in part because he set such a high bar by being so good and so consistent in the playoffs for the Leafs. He has been one of the only guys who shows up and steps up in big games. It is not saying much for this era of Leafs team in the playoffs, but generally speaking, he has been one of the only guys who delivers until this past playoff.
He wasn’t particularly good after the suspension last season. He didn’t score a goal afterward, and his minutes started dropping. You could tell it was a little bit awkward for him when he came back into the lineup. The team was on a huge winning streak when he came back, and he was saying he didn’t watch to mess with it. He came back on a third pairing with William Lagesson. It was an awkward transition back, and he never really got his game back.
I’d argue nothing has changed this season. He has just kind of carried it forward. He hasn’t really been back at any point this year. There are legitimate reasons for concern.
He is 30 now and on the wrong side of it in terms of age, and his play hasn’t shown many signs of life. He is generally just not involved in the game. He is not really making any pushes to make a difference, and they are paying him money that says, “You should be making a difference.”
Petrielli on whether the 2024-25 Maple Leafs are better than the 2023-24 Maple Leafs:
I still want to say yes because their goaltending is better, and they’re better defensively. We are watching them without Jake McCabe right now, which really hurts. I don’t know if Jake McCabe should be as important to the team as he seems to be, but the fact is, when he is out, the defense is really out of whack right now.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson is playing way too high up the lineup. They have three journeymen-type defensemen in their lineup right now. Philippe Myers is playing well, but it is still three journeymen-type defensemen who are all mid to late 20s in the lineup at the exact same time. Their defense is taking a real hit on a night-to-night basis in McCabe’s absence.
It is concerning how bad they are offensively, which is kind of the weirdest thing to say about the team. But I think there is a bit more of a recipe for playoff success. I know it is hard to envision right now with the way they are playing, but generally speaking, you want to be better in net, where they are a lot better, and you want to be better defensively, which I still think they are.
It is maybe marginally a better recipe, but there are some legitimate struggles that are concerning.
Petrielli on the role of Matthews’ quieter season in the team’s overall offensive slowdown:
It is a big chunk of it.
Who did they really lose over the offseason? Tyler Bertuzzi, who scored 21 goals, and no one else of note. Matthew Knies has already surpassed last season’s goal total, and Bobby McMann is tracking for an increase in goals to hedge some of what Bertuzzi brought. Nylander is still in the middle of a slump, but he is still technically tracking for more goals than last season. There are some margins there that are making up for the 21 goals they have lost with Bertuzzi that they didn’t really replace. Even Max Pacioretty is technically scoring a little bit.
The big difference is that they had a 69-goal scorer last year. Is he going to hit 50 this year? It’s crazy to say, “Oh man, is he even going to score 50!?” If he scores 40, it is still a very good season, but the reality is when you score 69 and then you score 40, it is a huge difference in goals. You’ve lost basically 30 goals.
They haven’t really made it up. They haven’t had any substantial gains where it would be more than just hedging Bertuzzi, and they would also be making up for the near 70-goal season they had from Matthews.
