Leafs Notebook: Auston Matthews’ crowd noise call-out, the Leafs’ chronic injury issues, Morgan Rielly’s production, and why isn’t Alex Steeves up?

As the Maple Leafs geared up to play the Lightning last week, Jon Cooper noted the shift in the Atlantic Division’s competitive landscape. 

Cooper: “There used to be a top four and another four. That is how it was for a long time. That is clearly not the case anymore. In playing the teams in our division, the gap has closed.

“Whether Toronto or Florida are the class of the division right now, they are not a class above everybody else in this division, whereas in years past, I think that used to be the case.

“It is a coin flip right now.”

For nearly half a decade, the top four teams in the Atlantic Division were largely decided by this point in the season. Since the COVID bubble season, the same four teams have made the playoffs yearly. 

It could very well turn out the same by the time this regular season is over, but there’s no denying Ottawa and Montreal’s steps forward this season. On any given night, it’s more difficult to pick up points in the Atlantic, which is why referencing last season’s point totals doesn’t make much sense anymore. 

We’ve seen mixed results and unexpected developments. Take January, for example, where the Leafs have generally been middling yet haven’t ceded any ground to their closest competitors. In fact, they have gained ground this month at the top of the Atlantic.

It’s a tightly packed group now, with everyone except Buffalo still very much in the playoff race. 

The biggest gain for the Leafs so far is they actually have the best record of any team within the Atlantic against their division, sporting an 11-5-1 record to date. Last season, they were tied for the second-worst record against the Atlantic among their division rivals.

It’s a deep, competitive division this year, and it’s only going to get more difficult to hold off the chasing pack as we enter the final stretch of the season.

Notes

–  It feels like the Leafs are losing a player to injury nearly every game, and so far this season, they are sixth in man games lost (the same as last season, and they were ninth the season before). We have brought this up several times over the years, so pardon the repetition, but at what point is it systemic within the Leafs organization? They employ a sports science department that seemingly doesn’t keep players healthy. They regularly sit players for apparent minor inconveniences, and several injuries this season have stemmed from either non-contact or routine plays.

This is anecdotal, but early this season, when Craig Berube said a few players were day-to-day only for them to miss weeks on end, there appeared to be a disconnect as to when a player could return. During the last playoffs, their injury situation was an absolute circus and was one of the biggest reasons they lost. After the team was eliminated, only one player required surgery, and it wasn’t even the player we would have expected (Connor Dewar).

It’s an annual issue at this point, and it’s not to suggest they should rush players back or force them to play injured, but something is amiss when the team is perennially among the league leaders in games lost to injury.

–  It’s a shame that Matthew Knies got hurt because he was in the midst of the best month of his career with seven goals (a career-high in a month) and 12 points in just 11 games (including the game he left injured). 

–  The Leafs have been outscored 44-40 in the first period this season. They still really struggle to start games fast and set any sort of tone in their favour. At one point early in the season, it looked like they were taking strides in this direction, but this month, there are maybe two games where I would argue they came out with real pace (against Tampa and Columbus – the final result aside – in back-to-back showings).

Sometimes, it’s challenging to sort through all the injuries and separate fact from fiction, but this particular point isn’t muddled, knowing we have watched this core for years. They start playoff games slowly, and they start regular season games slowly, getting better as the game goes along but generally dipping a toe in the water to begin the game. It’s not a good recipe for playoff success. 

–  The Leafs dominated against Columbus, and it was a classic “one of those nights,” which happen over an 82-game season. If there was one takeaway, it was how Columbus packed the house defensively and left the points wide open. The Leafs’ defense really struggled to get shots through traffic, which is a movie we have seen before. There were several plays where the Leafs had multiple forwards at the net, but the defensemen couldn’t even beat the first layer (the defending wingers) with their shots.

In the Columbus game, Morgan Rielly recorded zero shots on net, while Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe had one each. Conor Timmins led their defense in shots on goal with two, but he only played 13:56. It wasn’t for a lack of chances; they need to do a better job in this department.

Quotes

“I think we are doing a good job of slashing and pushing out on things through the neutral zone to create some offense that way. Willy has had the breakaways and opportunities.

Everybody plays so tight on you now that you have to push out on people and be strong with your battles in the neutral zone. You have to be underneath people who are coming. We are starting to do a better job in that department and getting pucks out of the zone. It doesn’t always have to be on the tape, but we are hitting the “slash” guy a lot, and it creates a lot of opportunities with people coming underneath.

Offensively, in the offensive zone, there is a lot more movement. Our D are more active. Morgan Rielly was up in the play quite a bit last night and had some opportunities. We have to keep stressing that.

In the offensive zone, it is all about work and compete — you have to be heavy and win your battles — but we are shooting a lot more pucks from the top with traffic at the net and creating things that way.

Our 1-3-1 setups and our cycles look like they are coming around. We are working on them more, too, which helps.”

–  Craig Berube, on the team scoring in different ways

This was a good glimpse into some of the tweaks the Leafs have been integrating into their offensive attack as the season has progressed.

Early in preseason, we discussed the far-side winger slashing diagonally through the neutral zone to chase pucks chipped off the boards rather than providing a far-side stretch pass outlet (which is basically never available against good teams). As an example, Nick Robertson and Bobby McMann connected for a good one against Columbus that led to a 2v1 in the first period. 

There is more cohesive motion than early in the season when they are in the offensive zone. Marner and Nylander, in particular, like to pull up high in the offensive zone to the blue line, where they look to sift shots through traffic. They are doing a better job of getting two guys to the net when this happens (instead of one), and their defense is more active in pushing down/making themselves proper outlets. 

It’s still a work in progress – it’s only midseason still! – but they are making positive gains offensively. 

“[Reaves’ fight] was great. It is still a big part of the game, and he is still a big part of this team. You love to see that.

“I would’ve liked a little more energy from the crowd after that. It was a little quiet tonight, especially when two guys like that go at it. It was a great moment for him and gave us some energy on the bench.”

–  Auston Matthews reflecting on the Ryan Reaves fight after the Leafs lost 5-1 to Columbus at home

I try not to get involved in too many of these side stories throughout the season, but this one stood out because the quote naturally led to a conversation about the Leafs’ crowd, corporate ticket holders, and the perceived negative impact on the team. 

A few days later, the Leafs played in Ottawa, where the crowd makeup was somewhere between 75-85 percent Leafs fans. Think about that for a second. How many teams in the NHL receive that kind of support to the point where their fans take over another club’s arena? This isn’t the only arena where it happens, either. Maybe one other team in the NHL sees that level of road-rink takeover with any sort of regularity (the Habs)? 

So, what was the excuse in Ottawa? The fanbase is always ready to blow the top off the building, but it was relatively quiet throughout the night. The Leafs scored early, but they otherwise came out flat. Ottawa tied the game, owned over 65 percent of the shot attempts in the opening period, and spent the majority of it in the Leafs’ end.

Auston Matthews, in particular, was shut down by Shane Pinto, of all players, throughout the game. He registered one shot on goal, and it came in the third period. His team scored once on the night, and Matthews was a relative non-factor in a game where they really needed him to step up due to their injuries.

It’s a particularly tough comment to make when the team has won exactly zero things in his era and has regularly come up empty in big games (plus, it’s January).

The aspect they can control, as always, is their own performance. Everything else is just noise.

“A little bit of a weight off my shoulders, to be honest … felt like that was probably my best game of the year.”

– Ryan Reaves after his first fight of the season

Last season, Ryan Reaves got off to a slow start, was scratched several times, and was eventually reinserted into the lineup at the end of January against the Winnipeg Jets. He was an effective fourth-liner for the Leafs the rest of the way, bringing energy and jam down the stretch with several big hits and fights.

Tweets of the Week

The past three Leafs games have been really encouraging, particularly from an offensive perspective. Early in season, I worried their new style and sawed off their biggest strength, but nope. Now inside top-10 in goals-per-game. From the Sportlogiq stats I get I belieeeeve…

— Justin Bourne (@jtbourne) January 21, 2025

Despite a run of injuries lately, the Leafs are tied for seventh in goals per game in January and have been trending up offensively roughly since Matthews returned (which is not exactly a surprise). They were strong defensively at the beginning of the season, but now it has kind of flipped, and they need to find a happy medium as the next step.

Nylander starting to separate himself from the pack. Scored his league leading 13th goal off-the-rush last night. https://t.co/MHWBhbhFXY pic.twitter.com/PWn9krCmoG

— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) January 21, 2025

William Nylander sits tied for third in the NHL in goals and is the best goal scorer off the rush in the league by a considerable margin. Even more impressive is that he has done it all with a revolving cast of linemates.

Five of the seven teammates Nylander has shared the ice with the most this season are defensemen. The other two are Tavares and Knies, and nobody would suggest Knies is his linemate.

The Leafs don’t ask Nylander to play defense head-to-head the way they deploy Matthews and Marner, but they do ask him to produce with sub-optimal linemates regularly, and he has delivered so far.

might be a hot take, but i generally think the rielly conversation is overblown

his play driving/overall impact (two charts to the right) is in line with recent years

concern for me is his drop-off points-wise, but i think his struggles can be attributed to the change in system pic.twitter.com/9wVA38PTcm

— Willyston Riellander (@nylanderthews) January 24, 2025

Some of the stats around Morgan Rielly have been overblown, such as his -16 plus/minus when he’s at 33 goals for and 36 goals against at five-on-five, but at the end of the day, he’s here to provide offense. It’s difficult to look past the fact that he is playing to a 36-point pace and has been pushed off the underperforming top power-play unit.

OEL has one fewer point (in one fewer game) so far this season while making less than half what Rielly makes on the lowest-producing defense unit in the NHL. We’re over halfway through the season, and Berube has pointed out a few times that Rielly is taking time to adjust.

Last season, Gustav Forsling led the Cup-winning Panthers’ defense in scoring with just 13 points in 24 playoff games. The season before, Shea Theodore led the Golden Knights in scoring by a defenseman with 13 in 21. You don’t need a high-producing defenseman to win it all, but there is more pressure on the forwards when there is minimal production from the backend.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

1.    I think I don’t understand the Leafs’ line combinations right now. They are missing nearly half of their starting forward group when healthy but insist on keeping Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner together while also giving them the best available left winger in the lineup every single night.

Sure, they scored in Ottawa, but it hurt William Nylander on the second line to move Bobby McMann off his line, and the Matthews line was ultimately 1-1 at five-on-five, even if the goal against was off a bad bounce. The McMann and Nylander combination should clearly be a lock right now; they are up 10-4 in 5v5 goals and complement each other extremely well. This should be viewed as a no-brainer and a core line-building combination.

On the flip side, with several key injuries, if Matthews and Marner are going to be attached to the hip, they have to take a lesser player and elevate their games. They did neither against Ottawa. Can’t have your cake and eat it, too.

2.    I don’t understand why Alex Steeves isn’t up with the Leafs right now. He’s leading the entire AHL in goals and has played fewer games than the next 19 highest goal scorers in the league. He played four games with the Leafs and went pointless, but he took credible shifts and did not look anywhere near out of place as he averaged 11:01 per game.

While they might lose Steeves to waivers later on, he’s also set to be a group-6 UFA this summer, so really, does it matter? I am sure they are mindful of keeping the Marlies competitive, and he would be a massive loss for them, but the organization as a whole is at a point where the Leafs are the priority.

If multiple players are about to return for the next game, it’s a bit more understandable, but Steeves lighting it up while Jacob Quillan looks out of his depth playing 5:21 and Fraser Minten plays 5:43 is not helping anyone involved. Steeves has shown he can take a regular NHL shift, and he is buzz-sawing through the AHL.

Even if just one player returns for the Leafs, Steeves should come back up, and all the kids – including Nikita Grebenkin – should go back down to play top minutes and work on their games in the right environment.

3.    Provided at least one of Matthew Knies or Max Pacioretty is back by the time the Leafs play again on Wednesday, I’d work with the established pairings within the group. That means Matthews-Marner, McMann-Nylander, Domi-Robertson, and Lorentz-Kampf.

I’d fill it out with either Knies/Pacioretty on the top line, Holmberg centering the second unit as he has been lately, give Steeves a look with some skilled players in Domi and Robertson, and run their usual fourth line with Reaves on the right wing but with Nylander and Marner grabbing extra shifts there.

4.  If nobody returns next game, I think I’d keep the two proposed middle lines the same, put Steven Lorentz back on the top line to start the game, and place Grebenkin on the fourth line with Kampf and Reaves to see if he can provide a spark for a night.

If Berube keeps the top guys together, they have to carry someone, and putting Robertson with checkers was pointless. They have to at least attempt to create three lines capable of putting the puck in the net.

5.   I think the early returns on the Leafs shaking up their defensive pairings haven’t been particularly promising, but I understand giving it some time. The two pairings (Morgan Rielly–Jake McCabe / OEL–Chris Tanev) have been reasonable enough, but I am unsure if either has been particularly good. I wouldn’t really look to either pairing to match up in a shutdown role or to drive offense, but in a few games, neither has been egregiously bad, either, and the Leafs have rarely run two solid top-four pairings this season.

I’d understand if the coaching staff keeps running it, but their third pairing has really struggled, and it’s not a high-end enough top four to write off the third pairing. I think their best overall unit so far is still McCabe-Tanev, Rielly-Myers, and OEL-Timmins.