We’re now into February, and the stretch drive of the regular season is officially underway.

It’s shaping up to be one of the tighter finishes in recent memory, as all but roughly three teams in the Eastern Conference can claim a path to making the playoffs. That has not been the norm for almost a decade, and the Atlantic Division, in particular, is no longer a four-team powerhouse. The gap is starting to close.

Even with increased competition and many injuries, the Leafs find themselves in a comfortable playoff spot with a real chance to win the Atlantic for the first time in the Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner-William Nylander era. 

We all know they are going to buy at the deadline. It would be managerial malpractice if they didn’t. But the aggressiveness of their buying appears up in the air, and the Leafs face a critical stretch ahead in this regard.

The Four Nations tournament puts the NHL season on pause in the middle of the month, but the Leafs are staring down a February in which they play a total of one game at home. On either side of the tournament, they will take lengthy road trips through Western Canada followed by a tough northeastern trip.

To start March, they play four of five on the road. In fact, only 11 of the team’s remaining 30 games are at home, where the Leafs have a 19-11-0 record. On the road, they are currently 12-8-2. 

The road-heavy schedule leads up to the March 8 trade deadline, a great test that should set the table for how aggressively the Leafs should approach adding to their roster. 

The team is getting healthy, and the impact on their offense was immediately obvious as they scored four goals on the road against a good Oilers team, with both power-play units contributing. They also gave up 48(!) shots on the net, and Joseph Woll had to stand on his head. Goalies are part of the team — they are allowed to win the team games — but it’s hardly a convincing win, and for much of this season, the Leafs have been lacking those. 

52 games into the 2024-25 season, the Leafs’ chart speaks for itself. You can argue that the team is better than its numbers; Anthony Stolarz has been hurt since the middle of December, Auston Matthews missed notable time, they are again in the top 10 overall in man games lost to injury, and so on. But that’s also sort of the point here. They are healthy now, and this is a really tough stretch of the schedule ahead.

You can also argue that the East is wide open, so why not try to push yourself ahead of the group? Florida and Carolina are the teams to beat, and some opponents below the Leafs (Ottawa) are quickly closing the gap. The players need to earn the faith of management if Brad Treliving is going to sacrifice some of their few remaining assets in the system.

The team’s needs are clear: They need a quality top-four defenseman and a quality top-nine center. Recently, they tried out an awkward Rielly-McCabe/OEL-Tanev top four that brought out the best in exactly nobody. When they desperately needed to stop a losing slide against the Oilers, they reunited McCabe and Tanev, and they were both incredibly gutsy after OEL left the game early. After those two, though, they don’t have any possible combination that stands up as a proper top-four pairing. 

The obvious center need dates back to last season. Max Domi has been their 3C for months now and has three goals this season. You can live with the defensive warts if he’s bringing above-average offense in a sheltered role, but he’s not even producing anymore.

Bobby McMann has had an excellent season and should be in the top six for this team, but the thought of a Pacioretty – Domi – Robertson third line is so unpalatable that McMann is taking the brunt of it by getting pushed down the lineup in an attempt to make the third unit respectable.

The Leafs are neck and neck with Tampa Bay for the highest percentage of goals scored by their top six players. It’s nowhere near good enough. A proper third-line center settles players into a sensible pecking order.

While the two holes are well known, the solutions are less clear. Again, it’s a tired topic that we’ve already discussed, but the Leafs have very little to dangle in a trade. Florida’s second-round pick is the Leafs’ highest draft selection in 2025. They don’t own a fourth, either, which isn’t nothing. Next year, the Leafs already lack a second-rounder.

Almost every team in the playoff hunt will want to add a center. How can the Leafs outbid them? Are they going to trade one of their few legitimate prospects for a few months of Brock Nelson? The team better advance to at least the final four if so. Even with the past playoff failures aside, I’m not sure this group has earned that level of move so far.

If they are acquiring a player with term left on their deal, it is a different story. As we can see with the Jake McCabe deal, it can be a significant addition with long-term benefits. But there are very few players rumoured to be available with term, to say nothing of their quality. Moving any prospect for a quality player with term is well worth exploring for the Leafs, but buying a short-term rental is the proposition in question.

It sets up a very interesting month ahead. The Leafs have a tough schedule in February, and their one home game is against a Carolina team that they haven’t beaten in years. Any level of faltering to “not home ice in the first round territory,” and I’m not sure how Treliving can justify trading anything significant to improve the roster. They can always make a few additions to help the team (like a proper NHL depth defenseman and hopefully a healthy Calle Jarnkrok returning) and see if the stars can finally break through. For a more substantial addition, the players still need to earn it. 

Notes


Joseph Woll, Maple Leafs
James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

–  Since Anthony Stolarz went down mid-game on December 12 — and including Joseph Woll playing for 40 minutes in that game — Woll has played 18 games. That’s tied for second in the league amongst all goalies, with only Connor Hellebuyck and Mackenzie Blackwood playing more (they are tied with 19).

Woll needed to step up after the Stolarz injury, followed by the subsequent play of Matt Murray and Dennis Hildeby. While there was a lot of trepidation given his Woll’s own injury history, they paid him to do exactly this, and he generally held up his end of the bargain.

Woll played a true starter’s workload and got through it. His .905 save percentage doesn’t really do him justice. He’s stolen them a few games in that time — the games against Dallas and Edmonton spring to mind. Since December 12, Woll leads the entire league in high-danger shots against, too. It has been about as heavy a workload as possible, and Woll has battled. 

–  To build on the point of Woll leading the league in high-danger shots against, the Leafs team defense has really trended down. In January, they were 23rd in goals against per game, and their penalty kill also clicked at 75.8 percent, which was 17th in the league. On the bright side, they were tied for 10th in shot attempt share at five-on-five, so they did control the puck more, even if they were ultimately outscored 25-27 at five-on-five in the month. Some of it is due to injury, but their defense struggles are real, as they can’t find two quality pairings, and they spent time breaking up their one successful pairing to try to compensate for the struggles elsewhere. 

–  Some of those defensive struggles come down to playing smarter and harder.

Against Minnesota, Morgan Rielly lost a basic battle behind the net that directly led to an easy goal. Against Edmonton, the fourth line was out with the team up 4-1, and both Steven Lorentz and Pontus Holmberg forechecked below the goal line on a dump-in and didn’t disrupt the breakout at all. Edmonton was off to the races flying through the neutral zone. Simon Benoit got beat badly on the goal, too, but how is their fourth line giving up that much time and space in a 4-1 game on the road against an elite team? The Leafs often run a 1-2-2 forecheck at the best of times. Something like that can’t happen.

In the same game, Nick Robertson and Max Domi got crossed up at the top of the blue line, leading to Evan Bouchard cleanly walking in for a slapshot that he will bury more often than not.

There are too many self-inflicted wounds, and those examples only encompass the past two games. 

–  As we saw the Leafs dress a nearly fully healthy lineup (if Calle Jarnkrok and Jani Hakanpaa are ever healthy, they will rightly be among their top 18 skaters), the offense returned against the Oilers. The caveat is that the Oilers are the exact type of team the Leafs generally score against. They put up four against them earlier this season without Auston Matthews in the lineup, too.

The Oilers are similar to Tampa Bay, who the Leafs also score against with regularity, in that they are talented enough to engage in traded chances against the Leafs. When the Leafs have issues scoring, it’s often because the opposition sits back and clogs the slot up — teams like Columbus and Minnesota. The Leafs don’t score any greasy goals to fight through it.

When did the Lefas last score a “dirty” one in front of the net at five-on-five? I’d argue it was Matthew Knies tipping home a game-winner against the Flyers off a faceoff, which was 10 games ago. They do it on the power play, but they need to get to the net more at five-on-five.

Quotes


Max Pacioretty, Maple Leafs
Photo: Dan Hamilton/USA TODAY Sports

“Maybe being a little bit grittier around the net. It is no surprise or secret that we have been trying to play a little bit differently than they were last year — a little bit more of a north-south style. Sometimes, it takes a little bit of grit to get to the inside with extra effort and battles in front of the net to get a second or third chance or beat your defenseman to the net off the wall.

It sounds simple, and we are trying to play a bit more of a simple game, but it comes with a bit of an attitude that you are going to win your check. Ultimately, that can help you score goals.

It has come in waves. There have been times when we have felt very good about our game, and there have been times when it’s not so much. That is the same for any team in any season. You want to peak at the right time.

It hasn’t been perfect, and we have had a bit of adversity with injuries, but the good thing is that we know what we need to do to be successful. It is not like we are questioning how we have to play. We know what it takes for our group to be successful and to play that north-south style. It is up to us to execute.”

–  Max Pacioretty on how the team can score more goals

Max Pacioretty went to the net against the Oilers, and while he didn’t register a point, he helped create two goals (Nylander’s at five-on-five and McMann’s on the power play) by screening the goalie and occupying a defender. They need more of it, especially down the lineup.

The Leafs’ bottom two lines can create some zone time, but none of those players are either a) driving the net hard with regularity or b) screening the goalie and causing havoc right above the crease. 

“We got the lead, and I thought we could’ve made a harder push. We let them come at us too much. They are a very good team; we know that, and they have great players.

We did a lot of good things, but I think we could’ve been more aggressive with the lead. We got the 4-1 lead right away. I am not critiquing wins — wins are wins, and they’re good — but we could’ve pushed a little bit more on them.”

– Craig Berube, on the Leafs-Oilers game

Admittedly, it’s tough when you jump out a 3-0 lead so early and lose OEL early in the game. The Oilers will have a response, and they threw the kitchen sink at the Leafs. Still, it was nice to hear Berube calling it truthfully. They need more pushback in those situations; they can’t just sit back and get tilted as they did. 

“I feel good despite the numbers. It’s a battle now, trying to compete and play the best I can, we all are”.

–  Morgan Rielly on his play this season

We’ve beaten this topic to death at this point, but one thing I noticed while at the arena for Leafs vs. Wild is how stagnant Morgan Rielly has become on the blue line with the puck.

There are far too many sequences where Rielly takes a pass on the point and looks to make something happen without moving his feet at all. He needs to create with his legs; that is his strength. His best odds of helping offensively come from moving either across the blue line with the puck or pushing down with it, but so far this season, he looks stuck in quicksand. When he gets the puck, he is hoping something opens up in front of his face instead of moving to create space and openings.

 

Tweets of the Week


Gary Bettman, Morgan Rielly suspension
Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

This is a really important announcement for the Leafs, not just for the Mitch Marner negotiations but for any salary they may take on with term at the deadline.

For Marner in particular, I think the question is pretty simple at this point, as we discussed when Mikko Rantanen was traded: Is he willing to take less than Matthews to stay? For the Leafs, the same question applies, and do they even care given the cap’s huge rise?

If Marner signed for, say, $13 million per season — which is a slight cap percentage increase over his current contract — all of him, Matthews, and Nylander would technically take up a lower percentage of the cap than Matthews, Tavares, and Marner did in 2023. With their goaltending locked in at a cheap value, they’d still have a ton of space to upgrade the other areas of the roster, while their three best players would be locked into deals with a cap set to rise exponentially year-over-year. It’s fairly straightforward in that scenario. Fans probably won’t view it as a discount, but it would be one.

Now, if he wants his full market value or if there is debate about the Matthews high-water mark on either end, that is where things get tricky.

To recap this situation:

  • On day one of free agency, it was reported that the Leafs signed Jani Hakanpaa to a two-year deal worth $3 million.
  • Steve Simmons came out afterward with the report that many in the league believe Hakanpaa’s career is already over due to a knee issue.
  • The Leafs did not announce the signing as they did for other players signed on the same day, and everyone went radio silent on this move for the rest of the summer. Eventually, in September, the Leafs agreed to a reduced one-year deal worth $1.47 million.
  • Hakanpaa has played two games since, and the Leafs, with their already limited asset base, are now rumoured to be interested in trading for a depth defenseman.

This is a really bad look for Leafs management so far; there’s no other way to put it. Following a year when they signed a damaged John Klingberg, they followed up with this Hakanpaa situation.

While it’s still possible Hakanpaa does eventually play, he’ll need to not only play but get up to speed and bring enough value to be worth this entire ordeal. Otherwise, when a sports journalist who doesn’t exclusively cover hockey can out-scoop the team on a player’s health, something is wrong internally.

This is more timely than ever right now, as all three are slated to be in the Leafs lineup with OEL injured. It shows part of the impact of Hakanpaa not panning out when the D looks like this after one injury to a top-four defenseman.

Five Things I Think I’d Do


Max Domi, Maple Leafs vs. Stars
Photo: John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports

1.   If Mitch Marner is going to miss a game (or more), it makes sense for the Leafs to move up Max Domi on the right wing and see if it can spark his game. Domi simply hasn’t been good enough so far this season — truthfully, he doesn’t deserve the promotion on the merits of his play — but Matthews and Domi had success together last season, and maybe a reunion will do the trick.


2.   Similarly, I’d put Morgan Rielly back on the point of the top power-play unit and see if it gets him going. It wouldn’t be the first time he got yanked off the top unit (for Tyson Barrie, Klingberg), then eventually returned and heated up.

As much as I like the five-forward unit, they give up a lot the other way. Carolina scored against them. Edmonton missed a breakaway. Ultimately, I think the unit is worth deploying, but they will need a bit of a safer fallback option anyway, especially in the playoffs when you are looking at penalty-killing opposition like Aleksander Barkov capable of burning them the other way.


3.    I think the Leafs are in a tough spot with their second and third lines, but I understand their approach. Bobby McMann is the best option to play alongside John Tavares and William Nylander. Even though the Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander line scored, they got out-attempted 5-19 against Edmonton. The issue is that the third line has really struggled without McMann, and the Leafs are trying to generate secondary scoring.

I get the approach — I’d do the same thing — but they need to be mindful of McMann’s minutes. He can’t get lost in the shuffle and end up with 11:23 of ice time in a game where Pacioretty plays 17:43, especially against a really fast opponent like Edmonton.


4.   I think if Oliver Ekman-Larsson is going to miss a few games, I’d like to see some of the other Leafs defensemen get into action, meaning at least one — if not more — of Dakota MermisMarshall Rifai, and Matt Benning. Two of those are veterans with some decent NHL time under their belts, and another is a mid-20s professional who has put the time in and showed well last season with the Leafs.

While all of Simon Benoit, Philippe Myers, and Conor Timmins have had their moments, I don’t think any of them have done anything to suggest they are roster locks who can be trusted on a night-to-night basis. There are other options, and I’d try to give them a look.


5.   With three games remaining before the Four Nations, I think I’d only start Joseph Woll for a maximum of two of them. I know they are playing every other night and a long break is coming, but Woll has played a lot of hockey and held up his end. Hopefully, Anthony Stolarz is healthy enough to get his feet wet ahead of the break.