Wow, what a 4 Nations tournament so far.
I thought it would be fun, but I didn’t expect this. The teams are playing for keeps and defending hard. It has been physical and feisty, with genuine animosity on display. The big Canada-USA game was a physical, tight-checking, defensive battle.
As the Four Nations break officially winds down for NHL teams and players report back by Tuesday at 2 p.m., our thoughts naturally transitioned back to the Leafs as we weave this tournament into what we’ve seen from the Leafs during the NHL schedule while also looking ahead to the trade deadline.
The tournament has been similar to playoff-calibre hockey, which made me think of a Brad Treliving quote when he was first hired:
“As much as our game changes and speed and skill are paramount in our game, at this time of year, I feel the two most important areas — and it has been for a long time — are the front of both nets. At the end of the day, you are trying to get to mine. How am I going to keep you from it? I am trying to get to yours. How can you keep me from it?
“Those are things that we have to find. We have to look for ways we can augment our team. Sometimes, that is not necessarily airlifting people in. It is getting people to adjust how they play. It is getting people to make sure we are getting inside. It is making sure that our puck battles are an area that is of the highest priority.”
Even with the elite of the elite competing at the highest levels, we see the exact same principles apply to best-on-best international hockey. A star-studded Canada team was effectively shut down by a stout defensive effort from the Americans, as Canada scored all of one goal in a regulation loss. They couldn’t get inside nearly enough and couldn’t generate enough offensively as a result.
There’s no time or space on the ice, and every player checks with a high level of detail. The Americans led the round-robin in shots per game with 29.3 through three games, which would rank ninth in the NHL right now. Shots in the Canada-USA game specifically were 26-23.
High-stakes games generally go this way. The Panthers won the Cup with a 2-1 Game 7 victory. They also won the Eastern Conference Finals in Game 6 by a 2-1 score. The Oilers won Game 6 by a 2-1 score. The Leafs, of course, lost Game 7 to the Bruins by a score of 2-1. Even when Toronto finally eliminated Tampa Bay in Game 6 in 2023, it was a 2-1 scoreline.
Thinking back to the Treliving quote about getting to the front of the net and defending it at the other end, what has changed since those playoff battles?
The Leafs defend the inside better, helped by the additions of Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe’s ascension, as well as their bigger-bodied depth defensemen in Simon Benoit, Philippe Myers, and Conor Timmins. Even last season, if nothing else, they added size to the defense at the deadline and generally defended the net-front area well in the playoffs (even if the defense was otherwise limited). Is it perfect? No, but they have improved in front of their net, and the goaltending has benefited from the stronger defensive play.
At the other end of the ice, the Leafs‘ defense still struggles to get pucks through with any level of consistency. The Leafs’ blue line is amongst the worst units in the league offensively. There are four defensemen in the league who have scored more goals individually than the Leafs’ entire defense core.
When Leafs do get pucks to the front of the net, who grinds in those areas? Matthew Knies comes to mind as an emerging power forward, for which he is full marks. John Tavares will go to the tough areas as well. Bobby McMann isn’t shy about going to the net, but his shot off the rush generally drives his offense. Similarly, William Nylander will drive the net hard off the rush but is usually the player with the puck on the perimeter rather than the one battling for rebounds in front. Max Pacioretty will go to the front, in theory, but at 35 and with multiple significant injuries under his belt, he struggles to do it with any level of consistency or impact.
The Leafs have never had McMann in the playoff lineup before, while Knies has taken a big step forward since last season. There is potential for internal improvement, but it’s not enough. They’ll likely add at the forward position before the trade deadline, but how much can Treliving realistically add – a forward or two tops?
Also relevant to the offensive question mark: Can the power play heat up and prove a difference maker when it matters, as it was in the one playoff series win under this core?
Regarding Brad Treliving’s original quote when he took over, he also mentioned players changing how they play. Last summer, after the Leafs were eliminated, the Leafs GM emphasized the players doing the unsexy things required to win.
Even when we watch the 4 Nations hockey, it’s pretty clear where the game is won and lost. Can you get pucks to the net and win battles at both net fronts? It’s not sexy, but it’s difficult, and the teams that do it well give themselves the best chance to win.
The Leafs’ stars have made it clear by now that they aren’t going to blow the doors off a series offensively. As talented as they are, they aren’t flying down the ice like a Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon and torching defenders one-on-one – at least, definitely not with the regularity those two can.
Ultimately, the Leafs have to change their approach. Many are hoping to see signs of progress in this area from the Leafs’ stars participating in the 4 Nations, but they aren’t proving anything in the tournament either way. The hope is they will learn from this eye-opening experience about the fundamentals of what is required to win at the highest level. They can’t always be the high player looking to shoot from the offensive blue line. Sometimes, they simply have to go to the net and win a battle.
As Treliving said nearly two years ago, “It is getting people to adjust how they play. It is getting people to make sure we are getting inside. It is making sure that our puck battles are an area that is of the highest priority.”
Notes
– The Leafs’ top-six forwards have been really good this season; they could have four 30+ goal scorers this year, including William Nylander, who is second in the league in goals, and Auston Matthews, who leads the league in goals since he entered the league. What about the rest of the forward group, though?
I quickly looked at the other seven Eastern Conference teams’ forward groups to see how much their 7th-12th highest goal scorers at forward have scored by comparison. It’s not pretty. For the Leafs, those six forwards are Nick Robertson, Max Pacioretty, Steven Lorentz, Max Domi, David Kampf, and Pontus Holmberg.
| Team | Goals by forwards 7-12 |
|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes* | 47 |
| Florida Panthers | 47 |
| Washington Capitals | 46 |
| New Jersey Devils | 40 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 37 |
| Ottawa Senators | 36 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 27 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 26 |
*Doesn’t include Mikko Rantanen’s goals with Colorado
I don’t think it’s a coincidence the Leafs have had Tampa’s numbers all year—it’s basically a top-six battle, and Jon Cooper was pretty quick to point out after the last game, mentioning the Leafs’ top guys have been better than theirs (in those Leafs vs. Lightning games specifically). The Leafs’ top six have been full marks, but the drop-off is significant after that.
– Furthermore, the gap is significant between the Leafs and the top teams they have had trouble with this season. They had one win against Washington, and it was a massive comeback. They haven’t beaten Carolina since a few seasons ago. Florida needs no introduction. You can see, at least from a goal-scoring perspective, how a few players can push the Leafs into these teams’ territory.
– Calle Jarnkrok is a legitimate double-digit goal scorer, and if the Leafs were to add another legitimate NHLer plus Jarnkrok, it’s a decent swing over what they’ve run out in their bottom six to this point in the season. If adding Jarnkrok plus a mystery forward can squeeze out a little more offense from an existing player (i.e., Max Domi), it roughly bridges the gap, at least from a goals perspective.
– In the month of November, Conor Timmins peaked in ice time, averaging 17:45 for the month. Since then? December: 16:53 January: 15:01 February: 14:15.
Simon Benoit has been similar the past few months, except he peaked in December with 17:23, followed by 16:04 in January, and then 14:45 in February. They’ve only played four games each in February, and Philippe Myers, who has played two, also averaged 14:45 in those games.
All three defensemen have put together strong stretches in the first half of the season but have trailed off of late while seeing their minutes managed accordingly. It’s fine if only one was playing nightly, but the Leafs need two to play each night as things stand. Hopefully, the break helps reset them.
Quotes
“I like our team. I like where we’re at right now. I do. I think Anthony Stolarz had just a great start to the season. He was on the shelf for a couple of months, he came back, he was in Seattle, he got a game in before the break, and Joe Woll has really been really good for us all year. The goaltending has been really good for us. There are not many nights where we could say we had the second-best goalie tonight. I think our defense has improved. Now we want to tweak ourselves a little bit upfront.”
– Brad Treliving on the 100% Hockey podcast
The Leafs’ plan seems pretty clear, although I still think they need another experienced NHL defenseman.
“Are you saying it is a confidence-building goal? Well, that kid oozes confidence. I thought it was a big-time player making a big-time play at a big-time moment. That is why guys like him are on this team. It was fabulous.”
– Jon Cooper on Mitch Marner’s overtime winner
This is a fair answer from Cooper based on the question he was asked. But I don’t think the question is about his confidence so much as it is the willingness and ability to go to the toughest areas of the ice and be successful there. That doesn’t just go for Mitch Marner; the whole core continually comes up short offensively in the playoffs year after year.
How did Calle Jarnkrok look in his return to practice?
Berube: He looked fine. He is really coming along. It is great to have him out there today. He needs time to practice and work to see where he is at and make sure he is feeling good. But it was great that he was out there today.
Is Jarnkrok past the worst of it? Could he help you at some point down the road?
Berube: Yeah, that is the hope. He is a good player. He is a very intelligent player who is positionally sound and touches a lot of areas of the game.
Unlike Jani Hakanpaa, it seems like Calle Jarnkrok‘s return is more a matter of when than if. That is good news, as he’s a quality NHLer who can reasonably play all three forward positions and chip in on both special team units. He will help. But it would be ideal to get him back sooner rather than later to get a feel for his play and ability to ramp up ahead of the trade deadline.
Tweets of the Week
The Maple Leafs have recalled F Alex Steeves from the Toronto Marlies (AHL).
— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) February 18, 2025
It’s very difficult for players, even ones having strong seasons, to go from the AHL to the NHL, so I don’t view Alex Steeves as some sort of saviour waiting in the wings or anything along those lines. That said, he is confident and tearing up the AHL, leading the entire league in scoring. There’s no denying how productive he has been, and on the flip side, there’s no denying how little the Leafs’ bottom six has produced. Steeves has earned a look just as much as the players ahead of him haven’t held onto their spots.
📆🤩 THROWBACK: On this day last year, Bobby McMann was projected to be a scratch in the morning, then was later elevated to play, and then proceeded to score his first career hat trick against the Blues.#leafsforever pic.twitter.com/07dPqRNbJ3
— Leafslatest (@Leafslatest) February 13, 2025
It’s amazing how much can change in a year.
Connor Dewar skated on his own in a separate rink before Maple Leafs practice and isn’t participating in the main skate.
He’s been out since Jan. 20 with an upper-body injury.
— Nick Barden (@nickbarden) February 18, 2025
This is becoming a bit of a story to track. Is Connor Dewar coming back, and if so, when? He can fill a role as an energy player who is good defensively and can kill penalties. If he’s out long-term, it’s additional LTIR space for the team to use ahead of the deadline.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. As we approach the trade deadline, I think a question for the Leafs to sort through is which of their RFAs they would like to retain. They have a few more than usual, including five “regulars:” Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson, Conor Timmins, Connor Dewar, and Pontus Holmberg. We can remove Knies from the list right now; he will be retained.
Beyond Knies? Robertson requested a trade in the summer, eventually signed, and has had an underwhelming season to date. Will they play this song and dance all over again in the summer?
Dewar has largely been hurt — he came into camp injured, missed the preseason and the start of the regular season, took time to get up to speed as a result, and then got hurt again. Is he someone they still value, or has he fallen out of favour?
They clearly like Holmberg, whose versatility is valuable, even if he has just eight points in 43 games. Considering he makes just 800K this season, he will likely be cheap and versatile enough to retain on a cheap contract.
Timmins is a bit more expensive ($1.15 million) but is a right-handed defenseman who has stayed healthy for the first time in his career and has posted decent results (up 22-18 in goals). But the Leafs also have their six defensemen under contract already for next season, plus Marshall Rifai and Matt Benning. Timmins wouldn’t necessarily be the player I’d give up on among that group, but eventually, a player or two should shake free.
2. At a minimum, I think there is some opportunity to recoup draft stock for a team with a second, third, fifth, sixth, and seventh in this draft. It’s not their ultimate priority to restock the draft pick cupboard this deadline, but anything would help at this rate.
As they did with Timothy Liljegren earlier this season, if a few players aren’t roster locks for next season, the next few weeks are a good time to make these types of moves to add picks and clear roster spots (plus salary, if injured players are returning). They currently have 23 with the Steeves call-up, while Dewar is on IR, and Jarnkrok and Hakanpaa are still on LTIR.
3. I think if the Leafs’ deadline plan is to focus on the forward position, they really need to see Jani Hakanpaa get healthy and play some games ahead of the trade deadline. Short of that happening, they really do need to add another defenseman as well.
4. I think, as Craig Berube noted after the first practice following the break, Alex Steeves needs some opportunity if they are going to give him a look again. At the very least, it can’t be on a line with David Kampf and Steven Lorentz.
Steeves has a great shot and is a finisher; he has to play with players who will help tee him up. At the very least, a passer like Max Domi — even if he is struggling this season — is a true playmaker. Steeves is tracking to be a group-6 UFA, so the Leafs might as well give him a real look before that happens, given his AHL production this season.
5. Go Canada Go! Enjoy the 4 Nations Final, everyone.
