On the eve of the 2025 trade deadline, MLHS’ Anthony Petrielli joined the JD Bunkis Podcast to discuss the team’s biggest needs in need of addressing before the clock strikes 3 p.m. EST on Friday.
On the team’s deadline priorities ahead of tomorrow at 3 p.m. EST:
I don’t know how defense wouldn’t be their number-one priority. When they are fully healthy, they are running a pair of Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins, or Philippe Myers is in the lineup. You can’t have two of those three guys in the lineup every other night in the playoffs. It is just not serious if you are looking at the other teams and what they are running. That third pairing has been a really big problem for months now. They’ve been actively outplayed.
I don’t want to dig in too hard on them, but there is nothing that they do well. They are not particularly good defensively. They’re not good offensively. They just kind of take shifts. Benoit is having a really poor year compared to last season. Timmins gets overwhelmed as the guy who has to carry the puck movement for a pairing. He hasn’t played a lot of hockey, and he is just not good enough. Maybe he will be, but he isn’t right now to the point where you say, “Why don’t you lead the charge for this pairing breaking pucks out?” He is clearly in over his head when asked to do it on a nightly basis while playing with a guy who struggles to move the puck in general.
If you look at the major hole, it is the defense. I think the Rielly-OEL pairing has been really good for about two months — they weren’t good last night, but nobody was — but you still feel good about that pairing in a seven-game series against Florida or Tampa? Let’s say their other top-six line now is Hagel – Cirelli – Bjorkstrand or Tkachuk – Bennett – Rodrigues. Do you feel good about that pairing in that matchup? I don’t.
On Simon Benoit’s struggles:
I think he is just really struggling confidence-wise. This is not hyperbole; I don’t know if he has made a proper tape-to-tape breakout pass since the 4 Nations break lifted. He is not moving the puck at all. It is a complete dead-end right now. Usually, when that happens and you’re struggling to move the puck with any sort of crispness, there is this domino effect. Now, you are fighting it, and you are in your own head.
This time last year, coming out of the All-Star break, they played the Islanders right away. He took a massive run at Mat Barzal, and it changed the game a little bit. He fought Bo Horvat on that play. It was a big sequence. He destroyed Cam York against Philly — he knocked him out of the game — and then fought Nicolas Deslauriers. He was targeting guys, so you could live with some gaffes. He was changing games with his physicality or swinging momentum; he was doing something to compensate for it.
Right now, the only guy we can say that about was somehow Philippe Myers against San Jose when he ran Goodrow. He didn’t fare as well as we thought he might in a fight against Mario Ferraro, but kudos to him for the overall sequence.
With Benoit, you almost look at it and think about the guys who were previously off the table — Brian Dumoulin, Alec Martinez, etc. — and say, “At least those guys have won a Cup and will be respectable.” Right now, the third pairing is not respectable. It’s not even close.
On the case for Connor Murphy as the top target:
On the one hand, Chicago doesn’t have a retention spot left, but on the other hand, he might not cost as much if you are not paying for retention. It is just about how you’re going to figure out a way to fit him in.
What happens today on waivers? Tampa had no issue placing a few veterans who weren’t cutting it on waivers to clear cap space. The Leafs need to add both at forward and defense, so how do you do that?
If you look at the rest of the defense market, I like Rasmus Ristolainen. If they got him, I wouldn’t be upset; he is significantly better than Timmins, Myers, and Benoit. It’s not even comparable. Acquiring a player of that quality and pushing OEL down the lineup is a significant domino effect. It would make them a much better hockey team.
Ristolainen is more expensive and even less established than Connor Murphy, in my eyes. Murphy is not the be-all and end-all, but he is a solid top-four defenseman. He has a palatable contract as is. With Ristolainen, you are squinting if you take on the full deal or have to take on retention.
Murphy’s $4.4 million is a fair number for what he is, and the fit is very obvious. He is a penalty killer. You would hope that he is a Luke Schenn on steroids or an Ilya Lybushkin on steroids, where he hangs back and Rielly activates more offensively so that we get the Rielly that we want.
If you look at a game last night, OEL really struggled in the game. I know everyone struggled, but he really struggled. He was at the bottom of the list for me.
Rielly takes a backseat a little bit. They need to activate him and get offense from him. What is the best way to get there?
I don’t know about the whole Luke Schenn-in-Pittsburgh situation, but he also makes a fair bit. The idea of paying for attention on Schenn when you could’ve signed him in the first place is not exactly appealing; I would get it if they bring Schenn back, but it wouldn’t be my first choice.
It is a good market but not a great market. It is probably between Ristolainen, Murphy, and, to a lesser extent, Schenn.
On the team’s forward situation, where they need to add up front, and the ability to create three lines:
I think they need a center. You could see it in the game against a quality opponent. It is not rocket science. But it is not like it brings the forward unit together as a whole. It is not like you can add a center, sit back, dust your hands, and say, “Great forward group.” It is still a bit awkward.
Ultimately, part of the question for me — if they are really going to get there as a team — is are they going to break up the top line? They haven’t been good. They were on for two five-on-five goals against in Vegas, and their goal differential this year as a line is 25-21. It is not even remotely worth it; those are two of the highest-paid players in the league, and they are four goals above even on March 6th. They need to be worth it to keep the line together.
I agree they should add a center. Again, I don’t think Max Domi can do it night in and night out, but I look at it and think, “Are you going to split up Matthews and Marner? Are you going to put Max Domi up on the top line?” It isn’t good, but it will work. Are you going to look at Matthews and say, “Hey, you should drive a line because you’re the highest-paid player in the league this year, and you haven’t been particularly good.”
In the third period, they changed up the lines, and it was a nothing period I am not going to put a ton of stock into, but Marner went down and played with Tavares and McMann. He was unreal. He scored. On the next shift, he danced through their entire team. That line spent pretty much every shift in the Vegas end. I know Vegas shut it down — I am not naive about that — but we do see this story with him all the time where he is way more assertive when he is not playing with Matthews.
I am not saying it is a bad combo. Matthews and Marner are both good defensively. You can trust them in a head-to-head. It’s a natural passer and a natural goal-scorer. There are a million positives that are very obvious.
At the end of the day, though, when you look at what Tampa or Florida are going to be, with Anton Lundell on the Panthers’ third line, Lundell was third or fourth on their team in scoring when they won the Cup. Tampa now has Yanni Gourde and Nick Paul, who eats the Leafs alive every time they play him. Are you going to get Scott Laughton or Ryan Donato and put him on a line with Max Domi and Bobby McMann?
The top line hasn’t dominated all year, and they’ve basically never done it in the playoffs. They should be looking and saying, “We should be shaking up the lines.” They need to add a quality forward, even if it is a winger and they keep Domi at center. You can say to Mitch, “You are going to play with Max and make it not terrible.” That is what really needs to happen.
They need to create three lines that are viable threats. Any level of a quality top-nine forward allows them to do it.
Petrielli on the fits of Brock Nelson as a high-end target and Scott Laughton as a mid-range target:
Brock Nelson is probably not getting enough play. I don’t think anyone ever knows what Lou Lamoriello is doing, but Brock Nelson is a good player. They could actually have him drive his own line and still keep Matthews and Marner together. They could put McMann up with them, and put Knies with Nelson and Domi. Suddenly, the third line is really good if they really wanted to keep the pairings of Matthews-Marner / Tavares-Nylander. It could work really well.
Nelson is a great fit, but he makes a ton of money. Are the Islanders going to trade him, and are they going to trade him to the Leafs? Can the Leafs make it work financially?
There are many variables that make it seem questionable compared to Scott Laughton, where it’s a case of, “Do they want to trade Fraser Minten for him?” I like Laughton, and I think he would help the Leafs. He is a .5 ppg player. He is good on the penalty kill, where they need help. He has bite. He also isn’t slow. Adding some extra speed would be ideal; speed skills at all times. He is good on the wing and reasonable at center. He gives you options. He would help them.
You still have to sit here and say, “Who is getting broken up to make that work?” If we look back to the Boston game a week ago, when they were down, they moved McMann to the top line and pushed Knies down to play with Domi and Robertson. I thought the third line was way better because Knies is a game-changer who changed the complexion of the line. McMann is good, but Knies is obviously better than McMann. The domino effect on the line was significant, and I don’t know if the top line was all that changed because I don’t know if they have been lights-out good.
That is ultimately the way to view it. To the point about their ice time, the team probably needs a little bit of a reality check on that end of things. Marner’s minutes have been way too high. Matthews’ has been way too high. They don’t look gassed yet, but should Matthews be playing 27 minutes against San Jose?
I can’t say the same about the Leafs’ guys’ minutes as I can about McDavid or MacKinnon in the playoffs. Their biggest advantage is that they have three really good players who can each drive their own line, in theory, and it creates a matchup nightmare. Somebody should be eating. I don’t know who it will be on a given night, but someone should be eating, matchup-wise, every night.
These guys have established that you can’t just pair Matthews and Marner together and think, “These guys are animals. They are going to seek and destroy as a duo and light the other team up/bend their will the way McDavid-Draisaitl do or MacKinnon-Rantanen used to.”
