“They all count the same in the win column,” the Toronto Maple Leafs must be telling themselves after a nervy 4-3 shootout win over the Utah Hockey Club that included a blown three-goal lead. 

Tonight’s contest was really two games in one. For 28 minutes, the Maple Leafs generally controlled play, held a wide edge in shots, and led 3-0. Then, over the span of four minutes, Utah seized complete control of the game, erasing the Maple Leaf lead entirely, and from that point forward, they were decidedly the better team.

The teams battled to a draw through the third period and OT, with the game winding up in a shootout. Toronto prevailed on a Mitch Marner shootout goal to finish a disappointing road trip with a win. Despite the two points, I’m not sure many in Leaf-land will be too satisfied with this 65+ minute performance on the whole.

Your game in 10:

1.    If you entered this game with an eye on Toronto’s trade deadline pickups, you probably didn’t like the first few minutes, as Brandon Carlo was called for a tripping penalty three minutes into the game. This was a pretty solid penalty kill for the Maple Leafs, who mostly kept the play to the outside. Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller, and Dylan Guenther moved the puck well between the wings and the point, but the best look they created was a teed-up one-timer that Joseph Woll could read from a mile away and calmly stop.

Of note on the Utah PP, the Leafs debuted a PK forward tandem of Calle Järnkrok and Scott Laughton, two newcomers to the Leafs lineup (Järnkrok from injury and Laughton via trade). I like this duo and think they could play an important role for Toronto, as cutting down on Auston Matthews/Mitch Marner PK time is probably optimal to keep them fresher at five-on-five, where their offense will be critical. Adding a new PK forward duo alongside oft-used Fs like David Kämpf, Steven Lorentz, and Matthew Knies should give Berube more avenues to limit Matthews’ involvement on the PK in particular, which should be a goal as we edge closer to the playoffs.

After the PP was killed off, Utah’s John Marino tossed a shot through traffic at the net that caught the iron, a lucky early break for the Leafs. Marner committed a woeful defensive-zone turnover, creating a look all alone for Kevin Stenlund, but Woll bailed Marner out. The first quality look for the Leafs offensively came from William Nylander setting up John Tavares, but through the first 10 minutes, the game was scoreless.

2.    Just over 11.5 minutes into the first period, Nylander intercepted a poor breakout pass from Sean Durzi while in the offensive zone and was hauled down by Josh Doan, whose father Shane was in the building on behalf of the Maple Leaf front office. The younger Doan skated to the penalty box and gave the Leafs their first power-play opportunity of the night, which they took advantage of.

Tavares got himself a couple of decent looks, all in tight on Karel Vejmelka, one of which came off a Marner point shot. In the end, it wouldn’t be Tavares who cashed it in but the man who drew the power play: Nylander. Marner fed Nylander up in the circle, and #88 ripped #36 of the season, beating Vejmelka to put the Leafs ahead 1-0.

It was his first goal in four contests and only his third since the hat trick in Calgary over a month ago, so the Leafs are hoping he starts to heat up again with an eye toward a big game on Thursday.

3.   The Leafs were now ahead 1-0 and maintained the lead for the next five minutes as nothing noteworthy occurred. Late in the first period, Utah veteran defenseman Ian Cole was called for a high stick on Bobby McMann while defending his own net front, sending Toronto back to the power play.

This PP had a bit more narrative than their first attempt of the game, as it featured a poor and short-lived stint by the top unit. They struggled to hold the zone early, and then things went south in the neutral zone, with Marner turning a puck over that created a dangerous chance going the other way. Nylander poked it off a Utah stick and, as a result, had a possible 4v2 forming in transition for Toronto. Nylander played it terribly, giving the puck back to the opposition before the Leafs could even gain the zone, despite their numerical advantage.

Craig Berube had seen enough at that point, not even halfway through the power play. Off went the first unit, and in the final minute of the period, on came the second unit. The second unit got set up, and stellar passing created a second goal of the first period. Morgan Rielly at the left point eyed Max Domi in the right corner, making a diagonal pass down to him. From there, Domi saw Calle Järnkrok camped in the slot, feeding him the puck past Olli Maatta, and Järnkrok ripped it home:

It’s Järnkrok’s first of the season, in his third game since returning from a season-long injury. Nice to see from a perfectly capable goalscorer who can definitely help in the secondary-scoring department as a five-time 15+ goal guy in the NHL. Scored with just 22 seconds left to play in the first, the Leafs led 2-0 at the intermission.

4.   Clayton Keller nearly got Utah on the board early in the second period with a fabulous solo rush through Rielly/Matthews after stealing the puck from Carlo, dangling Woll but hitting the side of the net. Liam O’Brien was called for a slash afterward, sending Toronto to their third PP of the game.

This was a pretty poor attempt. Marner committed his third inexplicable turnover of the game, handing the puck directly to the Utah forecheckers in the defensive zone, but again, the miscue didn’t result in a goal. The Leafs couldn’t gain the zone nor really get set up, and this time, the second unit wasn’t any better than the first.

Back at five-on-five, the third Maple Leaf goal arrived somewhat randomly. The fourth line came out for a shift after the expiration of the power play and established possession in the offensive zone. Pontus Holmberg passed it around the net to David Kämpf, who went low-to-high. At the point, Simon Benoit received the pass and took a shot through a multitude of bodies that changed directions and then fluttered by Vejmelka into the net.

Steven Lorentz was in the slot and celebrated as if the goal was his, which concerned the referees, who saw him holding a stick awfully high. An extended review didn’t show much of anything; the puck clearly deflected off something, but it didn’t appear to be Lorentz at all. The reviewers agreed, deeming it a good goal and later giving Benoit credit for his first goal since January 27, 2024. The Leafs led 3-0 and were in total control of the flow of the game.

5.    Immediately after the goal, Benoit and Michael Kesselring decided to drop the gloves for a fight that sort of seemed to fire up the Utah crowd, including a Superman punch attempt by Benoit. A few minutes of low-event hockey went by, and energy started to arrive in the legs of the Utah attackers. Michael Carcone’s speed showed up twice in the span of a minute, first by toasting a flat-footed Oliver Ekman-Larsson for a breakaway, stopped by Woll in one of his best saves of the night.

It was a bit of a warning sign. Later in the same shift, Carcone found the back of the net. It was a transition play for Utah through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone; Jack McBain zipped a pass across to Josh Doan, who released a deft chip pass to Carcone driving the net, where Carcone deflected it by Woll.

Laughton taking an unsuccessful swipe at the puck on the forecheck with two forwards already committed above the puck created a 3v2 in transition, and Rielly’s initial gap on McBain was a little loose, allowing McBain to get his head up and rip a pass cross ice. As Carcone freely ripped through the middle, Rielly couldn’t find the legs to stick with him and take his stick away after the pass went through Myers. It was a nice execution of a 3v2 rush in transition by Utah — and a slick finish by Carcone — but yet another case of the Leafs giving up costly rush opportunities to a fast team on this road trip.

6.   Utah getting on the board at 3-1 was not necessarily alarming, but the alarm was officially raised when they scored a second goal right after. There was actually a chance before they scored, mere seconds after the first goal, wherein a Toronto defensive-zone turnover led to a mad scramble and a loose puck in front of Woll. That one didn’t go in, but like the Carcone goal, the next one did. Also like the Carcone goal, it was another transition play for Utah.

Former Maple Leaf draft pick Sean Durzi snapped a sweet stretch pass from his own end that sprung star Clayton Keller in behind Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who was again caught on his heels against Utah’s speed in the NZ. Keller skated into the zone, stopped up, zipped an excellent pass to a cutting Olli Määttä walking all alone down the slot after Järnkrok was sucked in to Keller and couldn’t cut off the pass. Nylander was casual getting back to the zone, and it left the trailing defenseman wide open with a canyon of space in front of him.

Tavares and Carlo didn’t communicate or read off of each other well at the front of the net, as both picked up the same player, leaving Nick Schmaltz all alone on the other post. Määttä made the easy pass to Schmaltz, who tapped it in behind Woll, who had necessarily come out to challenge Määttä:

Multiple ugly breakdowns in the Leafs’ transition defense, combined with sharp offensive execution by Utah, gave Utah two goals in just 49 seconds, and it was suddenly a totally different hockey game.

7.    Craig Berube called a timeout to calm down his troops after that goal, but it didn’t seem to work. The Utahns were spurred on by a now-ecstatic crowd and continued to push for more, driving play in a way they hadn’t before the first goal.

The Dylan Guenther-led second line came out for the first shift after the second goal and held the zone for over a half-minute, only stopping once Tavares killed a play and cleared it. The Leafs survived that push but still struggled to find their footing before Benoit was called for a phantom tripping penalty on Jack McBain, who stopped up in the offensive zone and fell over, yet somehow drew a call.

Gifted a power play, Utah HC struck quickly. The Leafs lost the draw, and Utah worked the puck over to Mikhail Sergachev, who sifted a shot through a maze of bodies — a double screen of Carlo and McCabe as well as Barrett Hayton, who got a stick on the puck to deflect it by Woll and tie the game at 3-3. It was a bit of a shit happens-when-down-a-man goal, but to nitpick a little, you’d like to see Carlo get himself in the shooting lane a little more effectively there.

Utah needed just 16 seconds of PP time to find the net and, in total, they scored three goals in under four minutes to tie a game that was once a 3-0 Leafs lead. The game had been completely flipped on its head.

8.    The rest of the second period was tilted toward Utah. They went back on the PK after a Maple Leaf 3v2 turned into disaster when Logan Cooley tried to check Ekman-Larsson on the back-side (third man on the rush), bouncing off the sturdy defenseman but knocking OEL right into goalie Karel Vejmelka. Both players were slow to get up, with OEL leaving the ice (he would return in the third period), yet getting hit with an interference penalty (another iffy call).

The Leafs were short-handed, and it went from bad to worse when Laughton cross-checked Barrett Hayton in front of his goalie, putting the Leafs on a 5v3 against. They managed to kill this off (and the ensuing 5v4), protecting the slot and preventing the East/West past across very well, making life simpler for Woll, who did his job.

The Leafs escaped that PK fiasco with the game still tied, but they were reeling. Another defensive-zone turnover gave old friend Alex Kerfoot the puck and an opportunity to set up Liam O’Brien in tight, but Woll made a save again. Kerfoot gave the Leafs a gift when he fell over and high-sticked Rielly on his way down, putting Toronto on the PP in the final minute of the second period. The Leafs held the zone but generated little of note, so there would be a carry-over to the third period.

9.     The carry-over PP resulted in essentially nothing for the Leafs, so the two teams returned to five aside. Utah’s speed and skill continued to give Toronto some issues in the neutral zone, as the Leafs allowed controlled entries far too easily, and Utah continued to dictate play. Maybe the very road-heavy schedule over the past month gassed the Leafs to some extent, but the Leafs looked slow in these last three games compared to a high-pace set of opponents.

There was a long segment of 4v4 action after the Maple Leafs took a really sloppy too-many-men penalty, followed almost immediately by a high stick on Clayton Keller in the corner. Neither team scored with the extra ice, and the rest of the period was played at five-on-five. Five-on-five play was not kind to the Leafs in this period — attempts were a whopping 22-4 for Utah and shots were 9-2, per Natural Stat Trick.

Actual scoring chances/high-danger chances were more even, as the Leafs limited quality well but spent a lot of time in their own end. With an opportunity to recharge for a few days and get some overdue home cooking, the Leafs really need to get back to defending more actively/aggressively by winning more battles, halting cycles, and breaking pucks out with the legs to still make plays with the puck and drive it up ice versus just flipping pucks to center. They’ve defended passively and eaten too much zone time against, and the offensive-zone possession time over the last three games has been heavily tilted against the Leafs.

Tavares nearly set up a go-ahead goal with a spectacular spin-o-rama pass through the legs of Sergachev to a cutting Reilly, who was denied by a highlight-reel stick save by Vejmelka reaching back.

Auston Matthews went on one good rush to carve up Ian Cole and create a chance in tight, but overall, it was a very quiet game from AM34, amid a very quiet run of games from the captain. The Leafs will need him to get going and dictate play sooner rather than later; territorially and on the scoreboard, he didn’t win any of the matchups against MacKinnon, Eichel, Celebrini, or Cooley in the last four games.

Late in the period, Utah held the zone for nearly two full minutes, cycling and hemming in the Leafs, who were holding on for dear life.

10.     Before we talk about OT, I briefly want to shout out a line of players who wouldn’t see the ice in the extra session. That would be the fourth line of David Kämpf centering Steven Lorentz and Pontus Holmberg. They logged 6:51 at five-on-five, which isn’t much, but I consistently liked their shifts in this game. That line was on for a goal (the Benoit one) and none against, while shot attempts and shots were pretty even with them on the ice, on a night when the full-game numbers were heavily tilted in Utah’s favor. Holmberg was noticeable (in a good way) on the puck throughout, bringing energy and puck protection to the line, while Kämpf’s defensive positioning was solid. I’d like to see Berube keep that line together in the coming games to give it some more run.

As for the OT session, there were looks for both sides (as always in 3v3). Nylander and Domi had a 2v1 chance that nearly ended up in the net, turned aside by Vejmelka and resulting in a 2v1 led by Nick Schmaltz the other way. Schmaltz refused to pass or shoot and neutered the chance himself. Logan Cooley and Clayton Keller had several opportunities amid a very long offensive-zone possession, which included Keller hitting iron on one shot. Matthews fired a couple of shots off before the horn sounded, but the shootout was this game’s destiny.

The shootout saw Schmaltz, Nylander, and Cooley all stopped to start before Matthews fired off a neat change-up shot that solved Vejmelka. One save from the win, Woll couldn’t stick with a filthy dangle from Clayton Keller, who evened the shootout at 1-1. This gave Marner a chance to win it, something he’d accomplish with a slick dangle of his own, deking out Vejmelka and making sure to elevate the puck over the pad to end it.

The Maple Leafs thusly emerged as victors by a 4-3 score. You can’t be mad about two points after the Leafs let two points slip away twice in their last three games. However, this was still far from an ideal effort; they hung on by the skin of their teeth while getting decidedly outplayed for over 30 minutes of game time against a mediocre opponent.

This game ends a grueling stretch of schedule, one that saw Toronto play 11 of 13 games on the road. They’ve played just two home games since the start of February, but that will change with a four-game homestand beginning on Thursday. That Thursday game is against none other than the Florida Panthers, in a humongous game for divisional positioning, as the Leafs are now just two points back of Florida. The team is still searching for a crisp 60 minutes, and Thursday wouldn’t be a bad time to start.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

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