In one of the biggest regular-season games in recent memory for this core, the Toronto Maple Leafs won a tight 4-3 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning. 

Looking to rebound after a dreadful effort last night against the Florida Panthers, the Leafs‘ top line came out hot and notched two early goals. Tampa battled back, with some help from the referees in the third, but the Leafs were able to claim victory in the extra session on a hat-trick goal by the incandescent Matthew Knies. The victory puts the Leafs three points ahead of the Lightning for first in the Atlantic with four games to go before the playoffs.

Your game in 10:

1.   The first five minutes of this game were a welcome development for Leafs fans who wanted a motivated response from their team after a listless performance last night in Florida. The tired situation didn’t favour the Leafs, but against a Tampa team coming off a long-ish road trip, there might’ve been an opportunity to jump on the Lightning early and build a lead. That’s exactly what the Leafs did.

Brandon Hagel attempted to chip a puck up towards Gage Goncalves to exit the defensive zone, but Auston Matthews read it well and intercepted it. Matthews quickly spun and sent the puck to Mitch Marner in the slot, where Marner made a quick side-step move to open up a shooting angle around Ryan McDonagh and ripped it far side in one smooth motion — one of the nicer goals of Marner’s now-25 this season, in a big game to boot.

Just 1:13 into the game, the Maple Leafs were off and running, courtesy of a couple of offensive leaders who needed a response effort. Dream start.

2.    The Leafs didn’t rest on their laurels and kept attacking. A strong fourth-line shift continued the momentum for the Leafs. Not long after, the Leafs’ third line got a 2v1 sprung by a chip out of the zone from Nick Robertson. Max Domi sped down ice, waited to deke the sliding defender, and slid the puck over to Bobby McMann in tight, but Vasilveskiy stood his ground with a stellar save to keep it a one-goal game.

The Leafs kept asking questions of a Lightning team that was sloppy with the puck in the early portion of the game. The second goal was eerily similar to the first one — the same set of players on the ice, created under the same circumstances. Again, the Lightning turned the puck over to the Toronto top line at the defensive blue line when attempting to exit the zone, but this time, Marner intercepted the clear and found Matthews.

There was a 2v1 down low for the Leafs after the turnover, and although Vasilevskiy stopped Matthews’s initial effort, Matthew Knies was sure-handed at the back post to pounce on the rebound for a 2-0 lead. Matthews placed his spot intelligently, shooting low pad with Knies on hand to collect the second opportunity.

The top line, wretched last night against the Panthers, made an emphatic early statement with two big goals.

3.    It was a dream start for the Leafs, but their ability to protect the lead was soon tested, as John Tavares was called for a tripping penalty against Anthony Cirelli. Toronto was able to kill this one off thanks in large part due to the iron frame around their net, as the Lightning hit the post or crossbar three separate times on the power play(!) — Victor Hedman hit it twice, both on slap shot bombs from the point, and Cirelli rang the iron on a wrist shot of his own. The Leafs dodged those bullets, but it was an ominous sign of things to come for the PK.

Fitting the theme of a wide-open first period, Tavares got a breakaway coming out of the penalty box after the puck hopped by Darren Raddysh, but the red-hot #91 could not cash in this time.

When the play returned to five-aside, Brayden Point hit the iron for the fourth time in the first period, which was followed by Scott Laughton hitting Pontus Holmberg with a deft pass to set Holmberg up with a look all alone on Vasilevskiy; Holmberg bobbled the pass slightly, didn’t get a great shot off, and the goalie stood his ground. Max Domi went on a rush chance himself, thanks to a poor Emil Lilleberg shot into bodies, but Domi flipped the backhand high and over the top of Vasilevskiy.

The first period featured wide-open hockey, with both teams able to rip through the neutral zone with relative ease. In my estimation, the Leafs got the better of the chances, as the Bolts were quite sloppy with their puck management across all 200 feet, creating a steady stream of rush chances for Toronto. Vasilevskiy, despite allowing two goals in the period, made enough saves to keep Tampa in it, including a couple more on Laughton — who played a strong first period at the 4C position — and William Nylander before the 20 minutes were up.

4.    Those saves from Vasilevskiy were crucial in allowing Tampa the opportunity to gain momentum heading into intermission after a late goal that cut the lead back down to one.

It was a bit of a nothing play; Anthony Cirelli came down the wing and took a shot right into the body of Morgan Rielly. The puck kicked right back to him, so Cirelli turned around to tee up Nick Perbix, who was walking in from the point. Calle Jarnkrok was a touch slow to close on his pointman and didn’t get in the lane fully as Perbix fired a shot that went through three bodies and past Anthony Stolarz, who didn’t get a fair view of the puck.

Giving up a late goal is almost always pretty deflating, and it certainly was in that circumstance for the Leafs, who had played a strong first period at five-on-five, if a little chancier than they would’ve preferred with the lead.

5.     The second period began with tough injury news for Tampa Bay, as fourth-line center Luke Glendening did not leave the locker room and was ruled out for the rest of the game. With Jake Guentzel scratched pre-game for personal reasons, the Lightning were already skating 11/7, and now, without Glendening, they were down to 10/7, perhaps somewhat balancing the scales on the rest deficit the Leafs were facing.

Nevertheless, the Lightning generally dominated Toronto in the middle frame. The third line with Domi and Robertson was caved in for the second time in the game early on in the period, nearly leading to a Goncalves tying goal and setting a tone for the middle 20 minutes. This reassembled McMann-Domi-Robertson third line threatened off the rush a few times but largely got filled in to the tune of a 14-3 deficit in the shot attempts.

It wouldn’t be fair to suggest that the Lightning annihilated the Maple Leafs in the second period, but they certainly tilted the ice. As we have seen a little too often this season, the Leafs were content to sit back and concede the territorial battle, blocking shots and limiting A+ chances against but rarely sustaining time in the offensive zone. Shot attempts were 37-15 at five-on-five in the second period in favour of the Lightning, even if actual shots were only 10-9. The Leafs deserve some praise for how they defend and block so many shots in these kinds of circumstances, but the possession time can’t be this lopsided for it to be a sustainable winning formula against top playoff opponents.

There were a couple of looks for the Leafs the other way, including a Tavares end-to-end rush that nearly got through all five Bolts. At the other end, Tampa got Kucherov in tight all alone after a flubbed pass by Chris Tanev and then a mad scramble after a loose puck trickled off the stick of Laughton right out in front, a sequence that ended with Tavares taking a penalty after Stolarz made a couple of big stops. The Leafs killed off half of the ensuing TBL power play, but there was carryover time in the third period.

6.     The carryover PP time to begin the third period resulted in a Tampa goal, finished off by the handiwork of the half-wall magician himself, Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov had a bit of an odd night, with a ton of shooting opportunities that missed the net outright, but this time, he was up to his usual tricks on the PP.

From the Leafs’ perspective, the goal itself was fairly telegraphed; we know Kucherov either one-times that puck on net or into the bumper for the one-time play to the right-handed shot there (Point or Bjorkstrand in this case), and yet the Leafs left it wide open.

The Leafs’ PK continues to show glaring signs that it isn’t synced up as it needs to be at this time of the year. Steven Lorentz was a beat slow in recognizing he needed to return to the middle and take away the play into Bjorkstrand. When the Leafs’ PK attempts to dial up their pressure, it often comes at the expense of their reads/coordination, leaving seams agape and resulting in simple breakdowns in coverage.

The Maple Leafs have now surrendered a power-play goal in every single game against the Lightning this year, in addition to their overall recent slump. Lane Lambert and the coaching staff need to find a way to get the PK on the same page without a ton of schedule or practice time remaining before the playoffs.

7.    The good news for the Maple Leafs was that less than 30 seconds after the tying goal, Lilleberg took a terribly sloppy high-sticking double-minor penalty that gave Toronto its first power play of the night.

Knies got the first chance of the extended PP, set up by a terrific pass from Nylander, which ended in Knies hitting the iron. Not long after, Tavares cleanly won an offensive zone face-off to the point man Marner, who fired a shot through traffic and onto Vasilevskiy. Knies was in a great position in front, winning prime positioning on the mammoth Victor Hedman, tipping a puck down, and finishing off the rebound strongly.

Credit goes to Tavares for winning the draw so cleanly — especially after his faceoff faux pas cost them a goal vs. Florida the night prior — and initially tipping the Marner point shot, and also to Knies for continuing to be beastly and undeniable around the net front.

After a 30 second stint for PP2 (one decent look for Robertson), the Leafs’ top unit had another good two-minute session, this time with Matthews as the focal point, pounding one shot into Vasilevskiy’s glove and another off the iron (those posts/bars got quite the work out tonight). The Leafs easily could’ve come away with two on this double minor as the PP stepped up in a big moment and executed with ruthless efficiency.

Later in the power play, Knies was handed an off-setting roughing minor after going at it with Erik Cernak (who Knies mocked on the way to the box/in the box), which meant that Max Domi came on in his place to finish the PP. Domi took a debatable offensive-zone tripping penalty to negate the rest of the power play.

8.    After about a half-minute of 4v4, the Lightning went to a ~90 second power play, this one killed off by the Leafs without too much trouble. Simon Benoit made a really nice read that stood out on the PK amid a strong night (and generally a solid run of play) for the third-pair defender, including a couple of key blocks on Kucherov. The Leafs coaching staff mixed Benoit in with Brandon Carlo a fair bit for defensive situations as Philippe Myers barely touched the ice surface (seven minutes and change), and Benoit finished with 21 minutes TOI.

The play returned to five aside after the first seven or so minutes of the third period was played at some game state other than five-on-five due to the avalanche of penalties. One player who stood out during this stretch as having a few good moments was Nick Robertson, chasing a puck down ice and stripping a Tampa defender in front of his own net, which drew the ire of the Lightning fans when no penalty was called.

The zebras did Tampa Bay a big favour with a mystifying call that saw Bobby McMann pick up an extra cross-checking penalty before a fight with Brayden Point around the midway point of the third period. The referee back in the neutral zone could be seen arbitrarily picking out one of McMann’s cross-checks when the two combatants had engaged in a mutual shoving/cross-checking match down by the net.

9.       A terrible call led to a big moment in the game. The Leafs went to yet another kill, and it was largely going pretty well. They salted away the first 75 seconds or so without too much trouble, but then a sequence of unfortunate events unfolded.

Matthews blocked a shot that stung him badly, and the puck rolled up near the point. Mitch Marner decided to dive at the loose puck and came up empty, allowing Victor Hedman to walk in and fire a shot that beat Stolarz through traffic to tie the game at 3-3. It looked like Marner could’ve stayed on his feet, taken one more hard stride, and made a play on the puck to clear it, but he chose to dive and took himself out of the play when he whiffed; he rightfully owned the mistake after the game, admitting he needed to stay on his feet.

The remainder of the third period (some ~nine minutes) was played at five-on-five, and Toronto made some credible pushes, even stringing together consecutive offensive-zone shifts at one point, which had been sorely missing through much of the previous five periods of hockey. Encouragingly, after a very lopsided second period in Tampa’s favour, the shot attempts were 14-6 for the Leafs with the game on the line in the third.

The Nylander line had a good forechecking shift that dug a puck out and led to a Calle Järnkrok chance all alone in front, but Järnkrok sent the shot high and wide. At the other end, Brandon Hagel got a look set up by a Goncalves pass, but Stolarz made a big-time save, something he’d do again on Mitchell Chaffee, who was set up by Nick Paul. The Lightning effectively used the deep drive off the wing + cross-seam pass to a backside winger to create looks, but Stolarz stood his ground.

10.    This overtime was one for the ages. The Leafs strangely began with Tavares and Nylander on the ice (Matthews was out there but left for Nylander after Tavares won the opening draw), something that nearly ended with a Lightning goal after Morgan Rielly was too easily stripped of the puck by Brayden Point to create a breakaway. Stolarz stood tall, and the Leafs counted their lucky stars after Nikita Kucherov missed yet another chance moments following the Point breakaway.

Nylander then sprung OEL in behind the Tampa defense, with Vasilevskiy answering the bell this time. Back the other way, Point fed Kucherov, but again, he missed the net.

The rush back the other way led to the Leafs’ game-winning goal. It started with a 2v1 that saw Knies attempt a wicked between-the-legs feed for a rushing Rielly, stopped by Vasilveskiy. Rielly got back on the puck and tipped it to Matthews, who was fresh off the bench, walked around Point, and hit Knies all alone at the backpost for an easy tap-in hat-trick goal, as Hedman completely took himself out of the play, hoping for a break the other way.

Anyway you want to slice it, this was a huge win for the Leafs and a big-time response from their top players, which includes Knies, who called out his own team for some “soft” play in Florida and backed up the talk by walking the walk, to say the least.

The magic number (points gained by the Leafs or dropped by Tampa) to clinch the Atlantic is now six. They’ll play Montreal, Buffalo, and Detroit as well as Carolina (while tired in a back-to-back); even collecting just two wins/four points out of those Montreal, Buffalo, and Detroit games is probably enough to clinch it now, as the Lightning could only drop one point in their remaining four games to catch the Leafs in such a case. Winning three of four to leave no doubt feels quite doable.

Meanwhile, Florida is now six points back and more or less out of it. Moneypuck gives the Leafs an 83.9% chance to win the Atlantic, which feels right, and Florida only a 5.5% chance to drop to a wild-card spot. A playoff Battle of Ontario becomes more likely by the day.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/ Joe Bowen & Jim Ralph

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