The Ottawa Senators were at home, their fans actually showed up, they took their first lead of the series, and they had a 4-2 power play advantage. In the end, none of it mattered.

It was a 3-2 Leafs final again, in overtime, just like the game before. 

While I’ll never write a team off until they are dead and buried, it felt like the Leafs took the Senators’ best shot tonight, in a game where things weren’t always in their favour, and they won anyway to take a commanding 3-0 series lead — their first 3-0 seriese lead since their sweep over the Senators in 2001.

Your game in 10:

1.   As expected, this game started with a ton of energy, with the Senators back at home and the arena featuring a good mix of Sens/Leafs fans, who were rowdy and ready to go from the drop of the puck.

The matchups changed, as expected, with a few wrinkles. We knew the Auston Matthews line would draw the Shane Pinto checking line. From there, Ottawa shifted it around. The Tim Stutzle line generally matched up against the John Tavares line, while the most surprising matchup was the Dylan Cozens line against the Max Domi line, leaving the Scott Laughton unit against the Adam Gaudette fourth line. The key matchup was the Domi line against the Cozens line — a matchup that the Senators hoped to tilt in their favour.

With the energy and pace high on the ice, the Leafs created the first noteworthy scoring chance of the game. Pontus Holmberg, for the second time this series, broke in all alone, and similar to the first time, he doesn’t own a good enough shot to shoot a puck by a goalie cleanly. He really needs to develop a deke of some kind.

Shortly afterward, the game took a turn. The officials seemed to be on high alert in the first period and were quick to call coincidental penalties on Brandon Carlo and David Perron, leading to four-on-four hockey. At four-on-four, Tavares took a hooking penalty on a scoring chance, giving Ottawa an early 4v3 to take the lead.

The Leafs often turn to Mitch Marner or David Kampf in these situations, but in this scenario, the coaching staff went with Laughton, who was excellent on the kill. He shot it forward on the faceoff to clear the zone and did well to pressure and block shooting lanes, before Marner came on towards the end of the kill and picked off a pass of his own. The Leafs’ huge early kill avoided an early deficit.

2.  While the Leafs got the kill, Ottawa took momentum from their power plays and tilted the ice afterward for roughly eight minutes. Fortunate for the Leafs, Anthony Stolarz was excellent. Most notably, he made a huge save on Stutzle, who came off the bench, flew down the ice, and took a pass in the high slot all alone. Ridly Greig also had a good chance in the high slot, but it was blocked in front.

By the time the period ended, shot attempts at five-on-five were 16-9 for the Senators and 22-12 overall, although the actual shots on net were just 8-7 for the Sens. Usually, after a big early kill like the Leafs’, some momentum is gained, but the zone time and touches seemingly went to the Sens legs. The Leafs simply couldn’t break the pressure.

3.   Under those circumstances, you’re hoping the top line can hop the boards and break the momentum, but it was the Tavares line that eventually turned the tide with about seven-and-a-half minutes left in the period.

After Nylander jarred a puck loose at the Sens’ blue line, Holmberg provided the support, and Tavares passed it to Nylander, who gained the zone and found Tavares high for a shot on net. That led to an offensive zone faceoff where the newly formed Domi line with Max Pacioretty came out and generated a great shift.

Domi drove the net down low and just lost the handle, before they had a chance off the rush where Domi hit Pacioretty with a crisp cross-ice pass. Pacioretty tried to go backdoor to McMann, but he handcuffed him with a pass he couldn’t possibly convert.

The new “third” line was good for the Leafs in this game. Surrounding Domi with two physical towers and starting them with offensive-zone draws was a positive experiment overall, one that is worth continuing into Game 4.

Late in the period, Holmberg also hit Nylander with a breakaway pass. Nylander settled for some sort of half-clapper shot from distance; truthfully, it was the most bizarre breakaway I can recall from Nylander.

The Leafs went to a power play towards the end of the period and did a great job moving it around, but they couldn’t close. Twice, Tavares collected the puck down low with space and options but chose wrong, including an instance where he walked out alone in front and tried to pass instead of shooting.

At the end of the period, with the puck pinned below the Sens’ goal line, Knies was digging for it and took a cross-check from behind by Chabot. Knies cross-checked Greig after, and only Knies was sent to the box, negating the rest of the Leafs’ power play.

4.    It turned into a critical penalty. Not only did the Leafs lose out on the rest of their power play, but at the end of four-on-four, Nylander took a really bad penalty after a good shift. He stuck his leg out for little reason in the offensive zone for a trip, sending the Senators to a 5v3 for 1:25.

While Laughton again started the kill and did a great job with McCabe and Tanev, it’s nearly impossible to kill a penalty for this long. The goal itself wasn’t particularly special, either, as Claude Giroux pulled high and essentially saucered a shot through traffic. With Tkachuk screening, Stolarz couldn’t see it, and Giroux appeared to catch him off guard with the quick release. For the first time in the series, the Ottawa Senators possessed a lead.

5.   The lead lasted all of seven minutes. Matthew Knies got the goal back on a Leafs power play.

The Toronto power play has been an infamous playoff liability for years, but it’s consistently delivering so far in this series. While the goal itself had some luck attached to it — Knies tried to find a backdoor pass, and it deflected off a skate and trickled in past a sprawling Ullmark — the puck movement that led to that sequence was excellent.

Nylander and Tavares cycled it to each other on the half-wall before Nylander sucked in some Senators penalty killers up high as Knies leaked out to the goal line for a pass. When Knies took the pass, he fired it diagonally through the Senators’ penalty kill to Marner on the point, where Marner one-touched it cross-ice back to Nylander. Nylander’s shot was blocked, but Knies grabbed the loose puck and tried a pass in tight that deflected in. The goal itself wasn’t pretty, but the process was excellent, and the Leafs were rewarded. 

After the goal, Tavares put together a couple of monster shifts to push for the lead, including a wraparound attempt and another look where he took a pass in the high slot and just missed the initial shot as well as his own rebound. His centering pass then deflected and almost went in. Tavares was excellent in this game.

6.   As we flagged in advance of Game 3, the Leafs’ top line was playing fine-to-good in the series, but at some point, they needed to elevate their play.

On the first shift of the third period of a 1-1 game, they went out and absolutely dominated the Senators. Marner and Matthews won multiple battles to retain possession in the offensive zone, leading to a Carlo slap shot that just went wide and bounced out to Rielly. Rielly made a nice read to rim it low to Marner, who was waiting for it and made an absolute beauty of a one-touch pass off the wall to Matthews, completely fooling Ullmark.  The Senators’ goaltender didn’t follow or process the play at all, and all Matthews needed to do was find a piece of net, which he did for his first goal of the series.

This was a monster shift from the top line and a huge goal in the game/series.

7.  Similar to Game 2, the Leafs played really well after taking the lead. Ottawa was accomplishing absolutely nothing in its push to tie the game. The pace was right where the Leafs wanted it to be, as they slowed the game right down. However, just like in Game 2, the Senators scored on their first shot of the period, and it came nearly 11 and a half minutes into the third frame.

There’s not much to break down on the goal. Tkachuk came in off the rush and shot it short-side high. I don’t think Stolarz has been beaten by a goal like this all season long, and I’d argue it was the worst goal given up by either goalie in this series. Stolarz has been excellent and gets a ton of leeway accordingly, but it is what it is. This was a weak goal.

8.   After the Senators tied it, once again, I thought the Leafs were the better team. Their one scary moment came shortly after the tying goal when Batherson drove the middle of the ice and took a pass on a mini 3v2 that turned into a wide-open look for him against Stolarz 1v1. After the poor goal against, Stolarz stood tall and made a massive save.

The Tavares line then generated two good shifts where they dominated inside the offensive zone but couldn’t get it over the line. On each shift, Tavares came out from behind the net and turned like he did for his series winner against Tampa, but he couldn’t quite link up with a teammate cleanly for a goal.

In the final five minutes, each Leafs line saw multiple shifts, speaking to their depth and the coaching staff’s trust in their 12 forwards.

With a minute and a half left, the top line generated a good shift, creating a turnover at the top of the Senators’ zone before Marner broke in with some space. Marner made a cut-in move that had shades of his goal a few weeks ago against the Lightning, but Sanderson took his legs out. This was maybe the easiest penalty call of the night and a completely botched missed call, but the composure from the Leafs afterward was a major positive.

The Leafs aren’t getting too emotional about the ebbs and flows of a playoff series and look really settled and calm, no matter what comes their way. On the flipside, the opposite reality is visible on the Senators’ bench.

9.   Just a minute and a half into overtime, Simon Benoit stepped on the Senators’ throat.

There are a few things I love about this game-winning goal. The first is that the Matthews line started the period, generated a reasonable shift, and barely rested afterward as Berube put them right back out for an offensive zone faceoff a minute later. That’s coaching to win, not to mess around.

I also liked what led to the faceoff; Domi went down the wing and threw a shot on net right on Ullmark’s chest from the wall. It was an absolutely nothing play, but it drew an offensive zone faceoff that ended up deciding the game. Domi could have tried to curl and make a play or create something out of nothing, but he put a puck on net, drew the faceoff, and allowed the top line to hop the boards for an offensive-zone draw.

From there, Matthews cleaned out the faceoff; the Leafs’ captain was 65% on the dot in this game and posted the best faceoff percentage of his career this season. Marner did well to trust his teammate and run a slight pick instead of attempting to make a play, and Benoit blasted a shot that nicked through traffic and into the net.

Benoit has steadily improved offensively this season over last, and this was another example of the confidence he’s built. He confidently ripped a clapper for a playoff OT game winner. His delayed celebration — probably in disbelief — was hilarious.

3-0 Leafs. See you Saturday.

10.   This was a really good team win for the Leafs.

Lorentz played a team-low 10:39 of ice time, and a big part of it was due to not only the six penalties between the two teams, but the four-on-four play stemming from other penalties. The Leafs rolled their lines fairly regularly, and every player played a clear role. The Lorentz line with Laughton and Jarnkrok took zero offensive-zone faceoffs and a team-high five defensive-zone faceoffs; shot attempts were 6-7 when they were on the ice.

The Matthews line scored both of the team’s five-on-five goals and did a bit of everything. The Domi line only took offensive-zone faceoffs, and while they were technically on the ice for the lone five-on-five goal against, they created real scoring chances. Pacioretty was physical and noticeable in his return. Both Pacioretty and McMann were credited with seven hits each, making contact with everything that moved.

The Tavares line could have easily notched a multi-goal night. They went on multiple breakaways, Tavares had a chance in the high slot (and his own rebound afterward), and there were also the above-mentioned shifts toward the end of the third.

On defense, OEL recorded the low TOI mark of 18:07, speaking to the strength and depth of the Leafs’ defense group. On any given night, OEL could be the one who plays the least (and it’s not like he struggled). McCabe led the Leafs’ defense with 21:48 TOI, which underscores the tight TOI distribution on the blue line. We already knew this, but McCabe is the top dog on the Leafs’ defense, clearly.

All in all, this was a great team win against a desperate opponent facing a must-win. 

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/ Joe Bowen & Jim Ralph

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