How is the Maple Leafs vs. Senators matchup battle playing out through four games?

While the Toronto Maple Leafs are up 3-1 in their series with the Ottawa Senators, the three overtime games show that the Battle of Ontario has been played on thin margins.

To some degree, that’s by design. The 2024-25 Maple Leafs under Craig Berube are more risk-averse than previous iterations, and they are content to defend leads rather than make any defensive compromises in an effort to expand them. This team has had plenty of success in one-goal games, and part of that comes from its inclination to avoid trading chances with its opposition.

At the same time, the last three games didn’t go to overtime because that was part of Berube’s master plan. Outside of Game 1, the Maple Leafs and Senators have found themselves in a hard-fought battle.

One front of that tightly contested fight is the matchup game, where the Maple Leafs will have the upper hand as they return home on Wednesday and regain the luxury of last change. Understanding what Berube and Travis Green are trying to do in this phase of the Battle of Ontario gives us a better understanding of what’s happened so far, what we’re likely to see on Tuesday, and what Green might get up to if the series returns to Ottawa.

The matchups the Maple Leafs are looking for

Berube has not been as insistent on hard-line matches as his counterpart in this series, as he’s often put a premium on giving certain players specific zone starts.

For instance, three Maple Leafs (the line of Scott Laughton, Steven Lorentz, and Calle Järnkrok) have a lower offensive-zone start rate than any Senator, and Toronto has eight players getting at least 65 percent offensive-zone starts, while Ottawa has just two.

That said, there are still some matchups that appeal to Berube, which we can expect to see plenty of on Tuesday night in Game 5.

First Line vs. First Line

For much of the season, Berube has wanted the Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner line going best-on-best with the opposition. That was the case in Game 1 and Game 2 when he was dictating the matchups. 

Below are the Matthews minutes in those contests and how often he was going against Tim Stützle:

This matchup has tilted towards Stützle on a possession basis in the series. Ottawa has outshot Toronto 20-7 when these two share the ice, with a 69.13 percent expected goal rate. 

Toronto has a 1-0 edge on goals, and Green wanted no part of this battle in Games 3 and 4 when Stützle played a combined 5:11 against Matthews. 

It will be interesting to see how Berube handles this situation on Tuesday, now that Stützle is arguably on the team’s second line away from Brady Tkachuk and Claude Giroux. The Maple Leafs will consistently deploy Matthews against the biggest threat, but which line fits that description is up for debate.

Shutdown Pair vs. First Line

Defense pairs aren’t as easy to match against specific lines because sometimes there is only one fresh group to go out, but Berube wants Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev playing against Ottawa’s best as much as possible.

In this series, the shutdown pair has done an admirable job getting buried in the defensive zone against top lines consistently and defending well under pressure. Understandably, neither has sterling possession metrics under those circumstances, but at the end of the day, each has played more than 70 five-on-five minutes, conceding just one goal in that time. 

The chart below shows how much of Tanev’s ice time came against Tkachuk when Toronto had last change to get a sense of how often this pair faces Ottawa’s top unit.

Like the Stützle-Matthews situation, Ottawa has strong possession numbers in this matchup but minimal results. In the Tkachuk-Tanev minutes, Ottawa has outshot Toronto 17-7, but has a 2-1 goal disadvantage.

Green tried to steer Tkachuk away from the shutdown pair on home ice as he played far less against Tanev in the two games in Ottawa (11:17). 

With Tkachuk on the left and Tanev on the right, these two are in direct competition all the time, and the Maple Leafs are comfortable with the unflappable veteran going to work against the rambunctious winger.

Second Line vs. Third Line

This matchup is less significant than the previous two and may not be specifically sought out by Berube. It’s unlikely that he thinks that John Tavares and William Nylander need to face the Shane Pinto line in order to feast.

Instead, Berube likes his second unit to soak up offensive-zone faceoffs, and when Ottawa doesn’t have last change, it makes sense for the team to use its best defensive line in the d-zone regardless of who it will be facing.

Similar to Matthews vs. Stützle, Berube locked in this matchup a lot in Game 1 and eased off in Game 2 (minutes are Nylander vs. Pinto):

Once again, this will arise circumstantially in Game 5, but may not be crucial to Berube’s plan. The coach would probably be happy to throw some bottom-six lines at Pinto and get his big boys shifts against more defensively vulnerable units.

For what it’s worth, the Nylander-Pinto minutes have resulted in a sizeable shot advantage for Toronto (10-5), but no goals. Green didn’t seek this out at home because he had other ideas for Pinto.

The matchups the Senators are looking for

If Toronto takes care of business on Tuesday, these won’t be a concern, but they could factor into a potential Game 6 — and also provide insight into how other teams may try to line-match the Maple Leafs.

Pinto vs. Matthews

This is probably the most strategically important matchup in the series, as the Senators committed to gluing Pinto to Matthews for the games in Ottawa.

On a conceptual level, throwing a standout checking line against Matthews and his line makes a great deal of sense. Not only do you have a chance of shutting down the Maple Leafs’ top unit, you also neuter the defensive capabilities of Matthews and Marner by making sure your most dangerous lines see other matchups.

The theory is solid, but it only works if your line is capable of keeping its head above water against some of the NHL’s most talented players. If Pinto’s minutes vs. Matthews are any indication, Green believed his group could do it:

Matthews and his linemates have succeeded enough against Pinto’s line that Green may have to rethink his matchup structure — if he gets another chance. In the five-on-five minutes these two centers share the ice, the Maple Leafs have outshot Ottawa 14-8 and outscored them 3-0.

In Game 3, the Maple Leafs got two of their three goals from this battle, including the OT winner.

Sanderson Pair vs. First Line

Similar to the Tanev situation, there’s only so much a defense pair can play against a single line, but Green wants Sanderson out there when Matthews and Marner come over the boards. 

Even though Sanderson is playing monster minutes (27:35 per night), it’s notable that he still played more than half of his five-on-five time against the top line in Games 3 and 4 (the chart shows Sanderson vs. Marner):

The Sanderson vs. Marner minutes have tilted to the Senators on attempts (51-22) and shots (15-11), but the all-important goal tally says 3-0 Maple Leafs.

Sanderson is a difficult player to handle and one of the best things the Senators have going for them in the series, and his play-driving can make it difficult to spend time in the offensive end. Even when you get there, he’s no slouch, and his partner, Artem Zub, is a stout defender.

He’s far from unbeatable, though, and Berube probably won’t invest much effort in specifically trying to have his top line avoid Sanderson. Even if he wanted to, the young American plays so much that it may not be feasible.

First Line vs. Second Line

While there is some room for interpretation on what Ottawa’s first line is, it seems reasonable to define it as wherever Tkachuk is.

Green would undoubtedly love to deploy that group against the Max Domi line as much as possible, but because Berube plays that unit sparingly, he has to search for another primary matchup. In Games 3 and 4, that’s meant sending it out against Toronto’s second line (minutes are Tkachuk vs. Nylander):

Targeting Toronto’s second line has not been a fruitful venture for Green, though. In five-on-five minutes with Nylander and Tkachuk, the Maple Leafs have outshot Ottawa 10-9 and outscored them 2-0. 

Both of those goals came in Game 4, keeping Toronto in the game. Once again, if Green gets a Game 6, he may have some re-evaluating to do.