This was an ugly weekend of hockey for the Maple Leafs.
Process-wise, this 5-4 loss to Carolina was more akin to an 8-3 blowout than it was a one-goal hockey game in which Matthew Knies and William Nylander both had empty-net looks in the third period that, if converted, would’ve salvaged a point for the Leafs, if not two.
While they’re banged up on the backend, the Hurricanes could be fairly labeled the best opponent the Leafs have faced this season, given they’re currently 11-4-0 and a Conference finalist from last season. The persistent Carolina forecheck and high-volume shooting approach made for a good litmus test for the Leafs on account of the team’s struggles this season to a) break out cleanly against a respectable forecheck, b) inability to keep the front of their net tidy for their goaltenders. The Leafs didn’t come remotely close to passing the test.
After what Craig Berube called the best four consecutive periods of hockey this season — the third period of the Pittsburgh game through to the 60 minutes against Utah — the Leafs were an abject mess in the structure and detail elements of their game.
The reason Mike Babcock once said “the good teams own the second period” is that the middle frame can be so revealing of a team’s attention and commitment to the details of its game, from its structure with and without the puck to its shift lengths to its puck management. The Leafs gave up four breakaways in the second period alone. Calle Jarnkrok didn’t get it deep, so Morgan Rielly got caught scrambling for a change, leading to a breakaway. William Nylander turned it over twice in bad spots in the neutral zone, once leading to a penalty and another leading to a breakaway. Nick Robertson turned it over high in the offensive zone for another breakaway. Rielly senselessly jumped in with numbers already committed, leading to yet another Hurricane breakaway. The examples go on and on, and scoring chances off turnovers sat 12-2 in favour of Carolina after 40 minutes.
The Leafs, tied or trailing for most of the third period, were outshot 22-2 in the final frame and didn’t record a shot on goal after falling behind 5-4. Shot attempts finished at 68-25 Carolina at five-on-five for a Leafs’ share of 26.8%; 498 NHL games have been played this regular season as of the time of writing, and that single-game shot attempt percentage ranks 497th. The Leafs have broken 50% in five-on-five shot attempts just four times in 16 games.
In addition to serious scrutiny of the coaching of this team at five-on-five — this didn’t look like a remotely organized team anywhere but on special teams this weekend — you always have to start with the leadership group on the ice when games go as sideways as this one. Seth Jarvis’ 2-1 goal doesn’t happen if Auston Matthews gets on his horse and doesn’t let the Canes turn a 3-on-3 rush into a 4-on-3. On the PK, he was also out of position on the 1-0 Sebastian Aho power-play goal. William Nylander scored two, but he did not take care of the puck well enough throughout. Morgan Rielly’s decision-making and rush defense were a shambles this weekend. If you’re Craig Berube, you have to recognize that it doesn’t make any real impact to make an example out of benching Nick Robertson for a few shifts when all of this is going on at the top of the lineup.
The team’s top line — which features the team’s best center, best right winger, and best left winger — was outscored 3-2 at five-on-five and outshot 12-5 in this game. Against a quality four-line team, the Leafs are almost always toast with that kind of five-on-five performance from their loaded-up first unit.
Loading up a top line and sinking or swimming on its back is not what the start of this 2025-26 season was supposed to be about for the Maple Leafs. It was supposed to be about building on the defensive progress made in 2024-25 while evolving into more of a four-line team up front that could control games better at five on five. John Tavares is playing so well that he is making a line with Nick Roberston and Bobby McMann sort of work right now, but none of this is sustainable; none of it makes sense as a long-term model for success.
Beyond singling out individuals in the leadership group, it’s fair to state at this point that the lack of overall structure and detail to the Leafs’ game at five-on-five is dragging on almost every player on the team to some degree, save for the offensive producers having their moments offensively. Some of the decisions on the fringes of the roster are missing the mark as well; Philippe Myers and Simon Benoit both playing in this game after the Boston loss was coaching malpractice. We all echoed the desperation heard in Rielly’s shout to Myers to “HARD!” rim the puck, only for Myers to fan on it a second time as the Leafs were pinned down prior to the 4-4 tying goal (not to excuse Nylander/Knies on that play).
Adversity has come early for the Maple Leafs, and we’ve seen them weather first-quarter storms before. The good news is that an 8-7-1 record doesn’t leave the Leafs in a deep hole to climb out of, but Craig Berube will need to find some answers over the next couple of weeks; I would argue that we’d have to go back to 2019-20 to find an example of the team looking this lost well into November, and we all know how that month ended.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
