Sheldon Keefe once quipped about Jake McCabe: “He arrives at the puck in a bad mood.”
McCabe wasn’t a standout physical presence in the first stretch of games this season — after finishing second on the defense in hits last season (behind Simon Benoit), he was credited with only 10 hits in his first seven games — but he certainly put his stamp on this game late in the first period tonight.
The Leafs had lost three straight games, were down 1-0 in the first period, and shots were 11-4 Buffalo when McCabe levelled Bowen Byram as Byram wound up to shoot. McCabe then dropped Alex Tuch in the aftermath with a fist to Tuch’s chin, also drawing a Toronto power play due to the Tuch instigator, for good measure.
In the shifts following the power play (which had a few looks), OEL threw two hard hits — one to finish his man along the end wall, and one in open ice in the neutral zone. Before the period was through, the Leafs scored a cycle goal (a rarity this early season) stemming from hard work down low by Auston Matthews and Easton Cowan to set up Nick Robertson in the slot.
Also before the first intermission, Simon Benoit stung Tage Thompson with a cross-check in front of the Leaf net (OEL was penalized earlier in the period for a cross-check on Peyton Krebs in front).
This game was largely a 50-50 contest at five-on-five, with shots, shot attempts, and scoring chances pretty much even throughout. It was far from perfect from the Leafs’ perspective, and there are some ongoing concerns with the team’s overall play. But after they were down 1-0, outshot 11-4 (partially due to the BUF power plays), and facing the prospect of their first four-game losing streak under Craig Berube, they did at least show some form of the pulse we’ve all been dying to see from this team of late.
Post-Game Notes
– The Leafs took the lead early in the second period courtesy of John Tavares’ line, as Tavares, in particular, continues to roll to start the season. After his beautiful finish on the OT winner, he’s now up to five multi-point efforts in nine games (five goals/12 points in nine games overall). Coming off two straight penalty kills and with the momentum against the Leafs in the first period, Tavares dug in on the forecheck and created a chance. On the 2-1 goal in the early second, he did a good job of driving into the middle of the slot and getting a puck to the net, where Matias Maccelli finished it off.
The Knies-Tavares-Maccelli line did a good job of getting to the interior of the offensive zone in this game, generating four high-danger chances on a night when the Leafs were only credited with six total at five-on-five (per NST), as well as drawing a power play with a direct play to the net+center-lane drive by Knies. This was the only Leaf line to break even in five-on-five shots/chances/scoring chances.
– The 1-0 Buffalo goal was another example of a poor sort-out by the Leafs’ forwards tracking back into their own zone off the rush, creating wide open seams for goals against — a significant issue for the team of late. Despite both Domi and Myers signalling to pick up Thompson, Thompson ended up with the time and space to load up and rip one by Cayden Primeau. Too easy.
– The 2-2 Buffalo goal was a tough one for Primeau due to the double screen in front, completely un-sighting him. The Leafs did a great job last season of boxing out in general, and when they lost their box-out opportunity on the attacking forward, they were good at fronting in the shooting lanes and getting blocks for their goalies; they were a top-five team in blocked shots in 2024-25. The Leafs need to get back to consistently excelling at that part of their identity under Berube if they’re going to work their way back to their 2024-25 status as an upper-echelon defensive team (which they’re a far cry from right now).
The Leafs are currently a top-10 offense despite a 13% power play (29th), thanks to a third-best 3.62 goals/60 at even strength. Despite all the concerns about the big loss up front over the offseason, their five-on-five scoring is slightly up over last season. So much of their .500 record is down to these kinds of details on the defensive side of the puck, as they currently rank 27th in goals against per game. They did at least notably reduce the odd-man rushes against in this game by not losing their numbers above the puck as frequently.
– The Max Domi-centered fourth line conceded two goals in two games this weekend and was out-attempted 7-3 tonight with an xGF% of 2.3%. Domi was also on the ice for the 1-0 Buffalo goal and has now been out-scored 8-1 at five-on-five this season, which is a shocking stat through nine games.
Domi is no stranger to slow starts, but this is as bad as it’s been in terms of him dwindling away as a misfit piece inside Berube’s lineup. He was awful on Matthews’ RW vs. New Jersey, but it was probably unfair to Domi not to give him a fair run in that spot to start the year, while the likes of Cowan, Maccelli, and now Robertson have rotated through Matthews’ right side. It’s now anyone’s guess as to how they’ll find a suitable lineup spot for Domi to hopefully contribute some offense without getting filled in defensively/providing a net negative at five-on-five. Again, 8-1 at five-on-five is beyond unacceptable. He played just 10:29 tonight.
-Speaking of unacceptable five-on-five goal shares, Philippe Myers is already at five goals against at five-on-five in two games/28 minutes of ice time. It’s definitely not all on him, and he was on the sidelines for a while, but it is worth noting that Matt Benning (RHD) was pretty good in preseason and has nearly 500 games of NHL experience.
– As October goals go, the Dakota Joshua one to tie it up 3-3 with seven minutes left in the third felt like a pretty big one. The Leafs have yet to lose four in a row under Craig Berube and were on the verge of handing all four points to the Sabres a few weeks after handing all four to the Red Wings — both intradivisonal back-to-backs the Leafs should be banking points from. The Sabres collecting three of four still isn’t great, but the Leafs potentially falling to 3-5-1 amid a soft, home-heavy stretch of their schedule would’ve been a very tough look. Now, with a win over the struggling Flames on Tuesday, they could at least match last season’s opening 10-game record of 5-4-1.
– Assuming Joseph Woll won’t be ready for the upcoming back-to-back this week in Columbus but hopefully will be by the next b2b on Nov. 8-9, the Leafs are guaranteed to finish with at least two wins in the three scheduled Cayden Primeau starts. You’ll take that.
– Interesting to see Nic Roy receive the opportunity with Matthews at the start of three-on-three with William Nylander absent. Knowing they wanted to run Knies-Tavares second up (who combined for the GWG), it’s surprising it wasn’t McMann (who has played with him at five-on-five of late) or Maccelli.
– The scratch and score tradition continued with the 1-1 goal for Nick Robertson. We’ve criticized Berube plenty in this space of late, so credit where it’s due: injecting Robertson’s fresh legs in a meaningful role alongside Matthews in search of a spark/extra energy in a back-to-back scenario was a good call that paid off.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Game Highlights: Maple Leafs 4 vs. Sabres 3 (OT)
