Happy draft week to all who celebrate!
The Maple Leafs head into the 2025 draft with six picks — one shy of a pick per round — but they don’t own a first-round pick, and they own two fifths instead of a fourth. One of those fifths originally belonged to Pittsburgh and was acquired in the Connor Dewar and Conor Timmins cap dump. It’s the ninth pick in the round, so we’re splitting hairs between a late fourth and an early fifth (it’s a 16-pick difference from the Leafs‘ own fourth, moved for Dewar a year earlier).
It’s a near-full draft class in terms of volume, but it lacks quality picks. We will see if Brad Treliving can add additional picks to this crop, potentially by shedding contracts like David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, or possibly Nick Robertson, and whether Mark Leach, the Leafs‘ new Director of Amateur Scouting, can unearth some value as he did in Dallas.
There should be enough volume for the Leafs to add to their prospect pool, but the cupboards are already nearly empty in 2026, where they own just a third, a fifth, and a sixth. That’s noteworthy, as last season the Leafs traded down multiple times and added a 2025 second-rounder from Florida due to a lack of picks. They later traded Timothy Liljegren for a third as well. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them add 2026 picks at some point over the weekend; arguably, this is something they should be actively pursuing.
If the Leafs plan on buying at the 2026 trade deadline, they will need assets, or else it will be Easton Cowan and/or Ben Danford dangled in trades.
That brings us to the trade market.
We’ve already gone through UFAs, and I received a ton of messages about how middling the overall crop is in general. I responded to a few of those comments, but it’s worth noting in this space that this was done on purpose. I wanted to demonstrate that this UFA group is not great, and with the cap rising, you’re likely going to overspend more than usual on players who aren’t exactly needle movers, or you’ll overpay aging ones with question marks.
Last summer, there were clear holes on the Leafs’ defense amid one of the best UFA defense markets in recent memory. It was a straightforward situation, and the Leafs signed two solid veteran defensemen and hit on their goalie addition. This summer, I don’t think they can adequately complete their shopping through only the UFA market, and as we sifted through the options last week, this became abundantly clear.
While the Leafs don’t own a ton of assets to throw around in trades, they are armed with cap space, which should make them competitive in the trade market; teams around the league are always looking to shed money. We just saw Mason Marchment traded for very little, relatively speaking, costing Seattle just a third and fourth-round pick. It’s a pretty safe bet that Marchment won’t be the only player moving for a relatively low cost. Arguably, Monday’s trade — Trevor Zegras to Philly for Ryan Poehling, a second, and a fourth — is relatively low acquisition cost given the upside, too.
The draft/summer is generally a great time to make trades at much lower costs. We see it happen in the league pretty regularly. Last offseason, the Ottawa Senators traded Nick Jensen and a third-round pick for Jakob Chychrun, who was 26 years old at the time and followed up the trade with a 20-goal season and a long-term contract extension in Washington.
Plus, there is the potential benefit of trading for players already signed to contracts negotiated before the salary cap increased. The alternative is diving into a free agent market where players are positioning for new contracts based on the most notable cap jump in seven years.
Tack on the relatively weak UFA crop in general, and it’s a no-brainer for the Leafs to dive into the trade market and weaponize their cap space. Truthfully, I’d be disappointed if Treliving made zero trades of note this summer.
With all of that said, let’s get into some options on the trade market. Before we do, a few notes on players who didn’t make this list:
- William Karlsson’s name has popped up at points, but it’s widely reported now that he’s not available. If he were, he would be my number one target by a wide margin as an excellent two-way center with proper playoff pedigree.
- I originally included Mika Zibanejad on the list, too, but it now seems unlikely that the Rangers will move him. If they did, it would make sense only if the Leafs could send back some salary.
- The Rangers are a strange team in general to get a handle on. Alexis Lafreniere’s name is thrown around at times, and the Rangers seem ready and willing to listen to anything at this point, but it’s hard to see them actually pulling the plug on that type of move. He would be another player on this list were he available.
- Mason Marchment and Mavrik Bourque would have made this list but were already moved.
- Charlie Coyle did not qualify for me because he’s aging and expensive for a 3C — which is what he really should be on a contender — and he struggles to drive play (he generally always has). I like that he’s big and right-handed with real playoff experience, but I’d rather sign Pius Suter for nothing but cash at this point; Suter is younger and is a decent bet as a better matchup 3C than Coyle from this point forward.
In general, I tried to identify players who will come at a reasonable cost given the Leafs’ asset situation. They aren’t flush with the picks to engage in bidding wars. For example, I’d be interested in Martin Necas or Bryan Rust to varying degrees, but I think both will cost a lot, and the Leafs simply don’t have the pieces to get involved in those negotiations.
Lawson Crouse
- Age: 28
- Height and Weight: 6’4, 214
- Contract: two more years, $4.3 million
- Season stats: 12 goals, 18 points, 81 games, 13:44 per game, 53.32 CF%, 55.38 xGF%
Why he might be available
Crouse appeared to fall out of favour last season in Utah. He averaged his lowest time on ice per game in five seasons, was healthy scratched once, and produced his lowest points-per-game output since his rookie campaign. Utah doesn’t have to shed salary — they have over $20 million in cap space with 11 forwards, six defensemen, and two goalies already signed — but they might want to dedicate the lineup spot to someone else. Even with cap space, they — or Crouse — probably won’t happily accept a fourth-line role.
Things to Like
Crouse just turned 28; he’s still quite young. Before this season, he scored 20+ goals three years in a row. Ironically, this is the first time between those seasons where he hasn’t been used in more of a checking-type role with higher defensive-zone usage.
Crouse is a good penalty killer, and he’s been a decent checker who will take the body and bring some jam. I think he’s purely a middle-six forward at this point and would shade toward viewing him as more of a checker who could play alongside Scott Laughton, but with the potential to add more offense than what we saw from Laughton’s unit last season.
With Knies and Bobby McMann, Crouse would add a third big body to the left side of the Leafs’ lineup who can crash and bang, which fits how they want to play stylistically. You could make the case for at least trying Crouse on any of the Leafs’ top three lines and seeing what sticks. At his salary, as long as he works on any of the three, it’s a great addition.
Before struggling to produce this season, Crouse has been over a .5 points per game scorer the past three seasons, so if he returns to form, it’s a solid contract. The production, size, and penalty killing are an easy fit if he performs as he’s shown he can.
Cause for Concern
For starters, I’m not sure how available Crouse really is. Craig Morgan speculated Utah wants to keep him. I kept him on this list anyway because when the ice time goes down, the player is signed at a healthy salary, and the player experiences a down season, I generally think a conversation can be had.
The question concerns the price and how tricky it would be to get Crouse out of Utah. They are set in net and on defense with veterans and quality, so the Leafs wouldn’t be able to woo them there. Utah isn’t selling off players for draft picks — not that the Leafs own many picks anyway — and they have no real reason to shed salary. They’d have to really like a player off the Leafs roster, or a young player/prospect, so it could be difficult to line up the pieces to make this work both ways.
It should also be noted that Crouse is not a slam-dunk player, either. He tallied 18 points last season. Pontus Holmberg and Steven Lorentz outproduced him. Crouse has some finish, but he’s not much of a passer to complement skilled linemates, and he traditionally hasn’t been an effective play driver. He’s been more of an opportunistic scorer who has been decent in a checking role.
Dawson Mercer
- Age: 23, turning 24 in October
- Height and Weight: 6’0, 180
- Contract: two more years at $4 million per season
- Season stats: 19 goals, 36 points in 82 games, 17:53 per game, 49.95 CF%, 51.11 xGF%
Why he might be available
Mercer was included on Nick Kypreos’ trade board at the start of June. After scoring 27 goals, he signed an extension and has followed it up with 33 and 36-point seasons. The Devils have over $15 million in effective cap space, and their only notable RFA is Luke Hughes; Mercer’s contract isn’t currently prohibitive for the team, but they appear to be disappointed with his development.
Things to Like
Mercer is one of the most intriguing players on this list. He doesn’t have the playoff pedigree or overall experience of most of the other players listed, but he represents real upside and is still 23 years old. He’s one year older than Matthew Knies, and the Leafs have Easton Cowan coming at some point. I also believe there’s a reasonable chance the Leafs found something in Luke Haymes, and while there are no franchise players in that bunch, it would represent a good layer of young forwards to help offset their aging roster turnover in the years to come, especially on a Leafs team lacking in draft picks.
Mercer is a good skater and a right-handed shot, which the Leafs lack. He has played some center and bounced all around the Devils’ four forward lines while trying to find his place in the league. He’s established himself as a solid penalty killer with his speed, and he’s been used to close out games for the Devils defensively at times as well. While he hasn’t replicated his 27-goal season, he has 19 and 20 goals in his past two seasons, so it’s not like he fell off a cliff. He can clearly put the puck in the net.
I hate constantly comparing everything to Florida — and I’m not screaming from the mountaintops that Mercer will turn into a stud — but the Panthers successfully took a bunch of shots on players in their mid-20s via trade. Mercer would be the Leafs’ attempt to find one of their own. He’s already a career .5 points per game player and has played to a 21-goal 82-game pace for his career.
Again, he’s played some center. I’d be curious to see the Leafs stick him at center for half a season alongside William Nylander and evaluate his progress. Mercer could keep up with Nylander, and he could put the puck in the net when given the opportunity, but could those two cut it together defensively?
Young players who can skate and put the puck in the net are enticing any way you slice it. Mercer is still young enough to believe there’s a bit more to unearth. In general, I like the idea of adding more youth to the Leafs’ top nine.
Cause for Concern
It’s hard to picture what the Leafs could offer the Devils in return, especially with Sheldon Keefe as the coach in NJ. Is Keefe going to speak highly of acquiring the cheaper, younger Nick Robertson in return, for example? Keefe did like Pontus Holmberg, and the Devils have seemingly needed goalie depth since Martin Brodeur retired, so maybe one of the Leafs’ younger goalies entices them, but it’s truthfully hard to envision a path to a deal.
What if the Leafs needed to take on Ondrej Palat’s contract to convince the Devils to do it? It could turn into quite the rabbit hole. Palat is making $6 million per season for two more years, but if the Devils would take some salary back (David Kampf, Matt Benning, etc.) and it lowers the cost for Mercer overall as a result, I’d at least weigh out those pros and cons.
Mercer also shades to the smaller side. He’s listed at 6’0 and 180 pounds. He hasn’t surpassed 36 points in the past two seasons, and he’s played all 82 games in both campaigns. Mercer has already played over 300 games in the league, so it’s fair to wonder if he is what he is at this point: not quite a top six forward, and a smaller winger who is not really a high end checker, either, but one who can skate, PK, and chip in some goals.
The $4 million price tag is a fine enough deal to take a swing at. If he is only a middle-six forward who can chip in some goals at that number, it’s fine. Plus, Mercer is still an RFA after his deal expires in two seasons. The concern is more about the acquisition cost.
Ross Colton
- Age: 28, turning 29 in September
- Height and Weight: 6’0, 194
- Contract: two more years at $4 million per season
- Season stats: 16 goals, 29 points, 61 games, 14:25 per game, 53.36 CF%, 54.27 xGF%
Why he might be available
The Avalanche have $1.2 million in cap space with 12 forwards, five defensemen, and two goalies under contract. They can barely afford a league-minimum lineup, although they will seemingly dip into LTIR relief to start the season while Logan O’Connor ($2.5 million) recovers from surgery. It is a tight cap situation, regardless, and it’s easy to see why they would look to free up some room.
Colton has been effective in Colorado since they acquired him, but he hasn’t exactly turned into the top-six forward they probably hoped he’d become when they traded for him. He’s making $4 million and is slated to play on a third line that already has a $5 million Charlie Coyle on it. Are the Avs really going to run a league-minimum roster that’s maxed out cap-wise?
Things to Like
Colton has been a favourite of mine for a few years now, so regular readers will not be surprised to see him on this list. He has speed to burn and is an effective forechecker as a result. He’s outshot opponents at five-on-five in every season of his career across varying roles (matchup/checking, offensive, top six, bottom six, etc.). While he’s never produced a big offensive season, Colton is the only player in the league to have registered 15 goals in each of the last four seasons while averaging fewer than 15 minutes per game.
The fit is obvious: Colton is a solid secondary scorer, he can handle defensive responsibility, he can play some center, and he can bounce around the top nine effectively. Plus, he’s turning 29 in September, so he’s still at a good age.
It’s easy to picture Colton next to Scott Laughton on a two-way line, or his speed alongside William Nylander at times. He could move over to center as needed as well — similar to how the Leafs moved Domi around last season, except Colton is not a defensive liability and will score more than eight regular-season goals.
Colton has been to two Cup finals with Tampa, winning one, although he hasn’t produced much in the playoffs with just 23 points in 64 games. This spring, he got hurt in Game 1 and didn’t play in the rest of the playoffs, hurting Colorado’s cause. Colton is an effective player who can push the play and the pace, and the Avalanche felt his absence.
Cause for Concern
The concerns likely center around the acquisition cost. The Leafs don’t have a ton of picks to throw around, and I’m not entirely sure if any of the Leafs’ available players truly interest the Avs. Would Colorado take a player at a quarter of the cost plus a pick, for example? They don’t have to trade Colton and don’t appear to be actively shopping him, so it would have to be enticing.
Colton is also a tweener — not quite good enough to be a top-six forward, and not quite a third-line checker. While I don’t really have a problem with that — Colton would be far and away the best linemate the Leafs have provided Scott Laughton since acquiring him — they may want more of a checker to deploy in a matchup role to free up the Matthews line. The Leafs also may want to spend this kind of money on a player who can more comfortably produce and stick in the top six on a line with Nylander.
I shade more toward Colton as a solid “plus player” and top-nine forward, but it’s possible the Leafs don’t think he’s defined enough in terms of his role to part with their precious few assets in return.
Programming Note: Look out for Part 2 of the Trade Targets series on Tuesday, June 24.
