Home Analysis Dion Phaneuf Re-Signs for 7 years, $49milllion

Dion_Phaneuf_The_Lads — Fat stacks for D Photo: Getty Images

Dion Phaneuf Re-Signs for 7 years, $49milllion

Dec 31, 2013

As reported by TSN’s Darren Dreger, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Dion Phaneuf have come to terms on a 7-year contract extension valued at $49-million ($7-million AAV). This keeps the 28 year old Phaneuf in the fold until the end of the 2020-21 season. Bob McKenzie is reporting that there is some form of NMC/NTC, which is a typical addendum to UFA-year contracts. The deal is the second-most expensive contract ever signed by the Maple Leafs (Kessel’s 8-year, $64-million dollar deal signed earlier this season is #1).

The Only Man for the Job

The money should come as no surprise. Back in October, I wrote that the Leafs would likely spend between 47 and 56 million on a 7-8 year deal for the Captain (between 6.7-7 AAV). Very simply, the Leafs defense is among the most porous in the league, and Phaneuf is one of the few defenders that can play 25+ minutes a night in three zones. There’s no one else in the system that can provide what Phaneuf does, and this is the going rate for a defenseman of his pedigree.

Due respect to Morgan Rielly, but even if he is a No. 1 defenseman, it won’t be for at least a few seasons. The prize UFA defender on the horizon is Dan Girardi, though his availability next summer remains uncertain. Phaneuf was going to get paid by some team, and Leafs GM Dave Nonis chose to deal with the devil he knew instead of trolling the free agent market for unknowns.

Terms and Conditions

Detractors will point to his meagre and falling point totals since coming to Toronto – he has just 15 points through 39 games this season – as reason for concern. However, as Elliot Saccucci pointed out the other day, in the world of a rising cap Phaneuf’s dollar figure won’t admit much impediment to building a winner.

His cap number will come in at about 10% of the total cap next season. That sounds high, but will fall as HRR continues to skyrocket and increase the annual salary cap figures league-wide. The more legitimate concern should be: just how prudent is it to pay a guy $7-million until he’s 36 years old.

Neon Dion

Phaneuf, selected ninth overall in 2003, has played 261 games for Toronto, recording 35 goals and 92 assists for 126 points over the last 5 NHL seasons. For his career, he’s tallied 110 goals, 245 assists for 355 points in 639 games. Since entering the league in 2005-06, Phaneuf ranks sixth in points and third in goals by a defenseman. Phaneuf has been a finalist for both rookie of the year (2006) and the Norris trophy (2008).

Top Point Producing NHL Defenceman Since 2005-2006

Click on column headings to organize or use the search bar.

Rk	Player	From	To	Tm	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	S
1	Nicklas Lidstrom	2006	2012	DET	548	91	325	416	173	238	41	50	0	1352
2	Dan Boyle	2006	2014	TOT	585	101	291	392	-15	444	52	48	1	1447
3	Brian Campbell	2006	2014	TOT	627	61	306	367	41	145	32	29	0	921
4	Zdeno Chara	2006	2014	TOT	634	112	251	363	136	802	41	68	3	1776
5	Sergei Gonchar	2006	2014	TOT	543	69	293	362	-23	424	22	46	1	1136
6	Dion Phaneuf	2006	2014	TOT	638	109	245	354	11	849	47	61	1	1785
7	Lubomir Visnovsky	2006	2014	TOT	546	94	260	354	26	253	55	39	0	1025
8	Kimmo Timonen	2006	2014	TOT	638	58	293	351	59	408	23	30	5	1059
9	Duncan Keith	2006	2014	CHI	647	62	283	345	119	423	42	15	5	1320
10	Tomas Kaberle	2006	2013	TOT	541	46	293	339	-40	150	25	21	0	925
11	Shea Weber	2006	2014	NSH	563	117	195	312	31	439	57	56	4	1509
12	Brian Rafalski	2006	2011	TOT	456	49	259	308	82	172	22	26	1	830
13	Andrei Markov	2006	2014	MTL	455	64	243	307	26	305	19	42	3	794
14	Mark Streit	2006	2014	TOT	528	68	236	304	-55	270	29	37	2	941
15	Chris Pronger	2006	2012	TOT	445	63	235	298	58	492	24	39	0	1009
16	Jay Bouwmeester	2006	2014	TOT	657	69	227	296	2	433	47	22	0	1235
17	Mike Green	2006	2014	WSH	468	97	199	296	51	364	46	50	1	1127
18	Ryan Suter	2006	2014	TOT	630	42	250	292	41	438	27	14	1	986
19	Marek Zidlicky	2006	2014	TOT	574	57	233	290	-41	502	17	40	0	894
20	Dennis Wideman	2006	2014	TOT	605	75	210	285	-54	397	29	44	2	1244
21	Christian Ehrhoff	2006	2014	TOT	609	64	217	281	68	423	36	28	0	1253
22	John-Michael Liles	2006	2014	TOT	548	67	212	279	-40	214	32	35	0	1008
23	Brent Seabrook	2006	2014	CHI	639	59	214	273	107	477	38	20	1	1099
24	Joe Corvo	2006	2014	TOT	582	79	193	272	19	187	39	38	2	1306
25	Niklas Kronwall	2006	2014	DET	532	57	209	266	50	352	31	26	0	825
26	Scott Niedermayer*	2006	2010	TOT	371	60	204	264	-5	306	21	39	0	786
27	Ryan Whitney	2006	2014	TOT	480	50	209	259	-30	381	25	24	1	705
28	Bryan McCabe	2006	2011	TOT	427	69	189	258	-3	470	26	43	0	965
29	Joni Pitkanen	2006	2013	TOT	464	49	206	255	-23	440	35	13	1	904

The Scientific Method

For those who look for more than just box cars, some advanced metrics are unearthing a lode of information on Dion Phaneuf’s two-way contrbutions to the Maple Leafs. One such, THoR (Total Hockey Rating, created by Michael Shuckers and Jim Curro) puts Phaneuf in the top ten among NHL defenders over the last two seasons. It goes on to suggest that Phaneuf’s contributions over a season add up to almost 4 more wins compared to a league-average player.

More on THoR from http://statsportsconsulting.com: THoR is a two-way player rating that accounts for the all of the on-ice action events when a players is on the ice as well as their linemates, their opponents and where their shift starts. Each event is assessed a value according to the chance that it leads to a goal. THoR uses a statistical model to determine the value of each player’s contribution to the overall outcomes that occur while they are on the ice. The values for THoR in the columns of the files below are given in wins over an average player for an 82 game season. Count/Number in the files below is the number of plays that a given players was on the ice.

If that doesn’t float your boat, then there are some more traditional fancy stats to consider. According to Behind the Net, among defenders with at least 20 games played, Phaneuf faces the hardest Relative Corsi quality of competition, the lowest quality of teammates score, while being twice as likely to start a shift in the defensive zone.

Phaneuf is Phaneuf

What we see every night, Phaneuf shouldering the load against increasingly difficult odds, is confirmed in the above numbers. And it’s no small part as to why he’s been paid $49-million over the next seven years. His ability to handle those tough and plentiful minutes as time goes by, while also providing above average offense, will determine whether this deal is a great success or failure. But the money is market value for 2013, and it’s nowhere near the worst deal Nonis has signed a player to in the last 362 days.