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From Tuesday’s TSN Drive segment, Bob McKenzie talks about the Leafs GM and coaching searches as well as the final day of Babcock Watch.

On where the Maple Leafs stand in their search for a coach and GM, Mike Babcock and other coaching candidates, and Sheldon Keefe:
Brendan Shanahan is operating in a pretty strong veil of secrecy right now. I wouldn’t presume to say that this guy was their number one choice and he’s gone; obviously, if they could get Babcock they would. It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. If they really, really wanted Todd McLellan, they could’ve done what the Edmonton Oilers did and just said, “let’s forget about Babcock for a minute, let’s go after McLellan,” but they didn’t do that. So that tells me that they wanted Babcock, McLellan seemed to be a consideration but not the kind of “we got to have that guy.” I’m not sure there was another guy beyond Babcock who they went, “we’ve got to have that guy.” I don’t think Brendan Shanahan and the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to sit there wringing their hands going, “oh my god we just Jeff Blashill as a candidate” if Babcock goes to Buffalo and Blashill comes up to Detroit, but I think Blashill is a candidate. I think that Guy Boucher, a name we’ve talked about before, is a candidate for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and I’m sure there are probably some others that we haven’t stumbled upon just yet.

I don’t know that they have to save face, honestly. I think what they’ve recognized is they need a general manager and a head coach; the general manager situation isn’t as front burner right now. In theory, in the conventional hockey model, you’re supposed to hire the GM first, who hires the coach. This is not a conventional set up in Toronto, and the nature of the beast is right now the coaching market is hot. You need to get into the coaches market, both feet firmly in that. The General Manager thing – they’ve talked to George McPhee, they’ve talked to Mike Futa. They are interested in talking to Jeff Gorton from the New York Rangers, maybe Julien BriseBois from Tampa. Those guys are still playing, they’re not available to be spoken to. They can kind of put the GM search on the back burner for now, and focus on the coach, and we’ll see where it goes from here. Do they call Paul McLean back up? I mentioned Guy Boucher as a possibility. Across the board, the coach will likely come first, and now they just cleaned house at the AHL level with the Marlies and everyone presumes Sheldon Keefe is going to be the next head coach of the Marlies. That is a distinct possibility, although for now Sheldon Keefe is leaving Sault Ste. Marie tomorrow morning to go back to his offseason home in Arizona with his wife and family. He’s talked to Kyle Dubas once and he will talk to the organization at large later. He would appear to be the frontrunner for that position.

I think he recognizes there are other teams besides the Leafs that are interested in Keefe for an AHL coaching job. In a perfect world, he might have wanted another year or two in junior hockey, but I also think that when opportunity knocks and you’re a hot commodity, sometimes you’ve got to answer the door. Especially when you’re still in your apprentice mode. It’s not like Sheldon Keefe is being interviewed or asked to be a head coach of an NHL team, where he says to himself, “you know, I might not be ready for that yet.” Taking that next step to the AHL is probably one that Sheldon Keefe can handle and most likely will. The relationship between him and Kyle Dubas is very strong, but we will have to see if any other teams get into the mix and how things go when Keefe talks to Brendan Shanahan and the rest of the Leafs organization.

On Mike Babcock’s final decision:
I can answer that two ways. I won’t be surprised if he chooses to go be the next coach of the Buffalo Sabres, but again, this notion – and I saw the AP report that they are in negotiations – technically he’s been in negotiations for more than a week. Terry Pegula laid a big fat contract offer on him before he went to the World Championships with Kenny Holland, and effectively this entire process, the entire open window thing, is nothing but a negotiation; not just with the Buffalo Sabres, but with the Detroit Red Wings as well. So, I know if I were Mike Babcock and I had this splendid offer from the Buffalo Sabres on the table, and I can continue to try to up the ante on that, I would go back to the Detroit Red Wings and say, “Okay, Kenny, here’s where I am at,” and “What’s the final offer going to be?” I don’t know if either side has presented their absolute best offer. I suspect, we’re at 5 o’clock the day before so I I’m guessing it’s happened by now, my guess is he’s going to take the best and final offers from those two teams in particular. I don’t think anybody thinks or feels the Toronto Maple Leafs or St. Louis Blues or the San Jose Sharks are in this ball game right now. It’s a two-team race. I know everybody thinks they know which way Mike Babcock is going to go; I’m not sure Mike Babcock entirely knows which way he is going to go. Even if he does, I’m not sure it’s in his best interest to tell anyone that until he’s further down the line.

The Red Wings are prepared to pay him but only to a point. The numbers we’ve heard thrown around – people are saying Detroit has offered him 3.25 million, I think it’s probably a little more than that. I don’t know how much more, but I’m going to guess it’s in the ballpark of 3.5 million, and that they may be prepared to go higher in the final, final offer. Or maybe not; that’s one the Illitch’s and Jimmy Devellano and Ken Holland would have to sort out amongst themselves. Let’s assume for a moment the Detroit universe of money is between $3.5 and 4 million a year, which is a huge increase over what he’s making right now. I think it’s safe to say the Buffalo offer would be, at the low end, $5 million a year and obviously the term would be five, six years. If Babcock is going to go to Buffalo he knows there might be a lean year or two on the front end but some rewards on the back end, so let’s make sure the deal is for a good long time. It could be a difference of more than a million dollars a year on a potentially six-year deal. So you’re talking six million dollars, which for coaches money – I mean, I know the average NFL or MLB player could sniff at six million when you’re making 15-20 – but the NHL universe is different especially for coaches. That’s a lot of money.

But I’ve known Mike Babcock for a long time and Mike Babcock is not just going to take a job he doesn’t want because of the money. You’ve got an owner like Terry Pegula, who anybody says to meet him is to want to work for him, he’s a very nice man, I think he makes people feel comfortable, there’s a reason why he’s got the bills. It’s not just the money — obviously when you’re backed by that much money, a lot of things become easy, but I mean, Rex Ryan, he got Pat Lafontaine to come out of semi retirement on the hockey front to run the Sabres briefly. Pegula’s a strong factor. The fact that he knows the general manager in Tim Murray from their days in Anaheim. The fact that they’ve got some pieces – they’ve got Jack Eichel, you saw Tyler Ennis play at the World Championships — this may be an underrated player — you’ve got Evander Kane, you’ve got some defencemen in Ristolainen and Zadorov and McCabe and some others. There’s some pieces there. They’re not nearly where they need to be right now and Babcock would know going in eyes wide open that there’s a year or two or three of rebuilding to be done, but if you’ve got a six or a seven year deal… It also represents a huge challenge. In addition to the money, there are reasons why it would be attractive for him, but he’s also go to way all of that against the known quantity. The known quantity is the Illitch’s, Ken Holland, the hockey team he coaches, the staff he’s got and he works with, and knowing what the difference in money is.

There’s no question there is conventional thinking and there is out of the box thinking. At some point in time, because the Detroit Red Wings – hey listen, if they didn’t want Mike Babcock back, they wouldn’t have allowed the organization to be submitted to this process, which has become circus like and it can’t help. That’s not a criticism of Babcock or anybody else. The moment that the Ken Holland and the Detroit Red Wings embarked on this process, they had to know it was going to be a bit of a circus. And Detroit is the least circus like organization in the NHL. The reason they did it was either because, a) they really want Babcock back, or b) they wanted to set up a foolproof way to make sure they would get a third round pick in compensation. I think it’s more the former than the latter, but if Babcock decides to walk, they’ve got a really good hockey coach in Jeff Blashill. I don’t think they’ll bat an eyelash if Mike Babcock walks out the door, a third round pick comes in, Blashill comes up from Grand Rapids, and away we go.

The Red Wings are offering him a million more than they were paying him, but they aren’t going to get into the $5 million-plus range that Terry Pegula would do at the drop of a hat. I get the feeling – and I could be wrong, I’m not going to speak for Mr. Pegula – I get the feeling that if someone said, “if you just bump it up to six, it’s guaranteed it’s going to happen,” [he’d say], “let’s do it! I’m not getting beat for a million bucks on this one, so let’s do it.” It’s going to be fascinating to see the dynamic at work. As I say, everyone has an opinion – the money will win out, he’s got to stay in Detroit, that’s his home… I think Mike Babcock has a few hours of decision making that will be really, really difficult. Maybe he has made up his mind, maybe I’m naïve to think that he hasn’t, but I also know if I was him, I might let a lot of people think I’ve that made up my mind in order to see what really shakes from the trees between now and when I really have to make up my mind.

UPDATE (1:35pm):

Update: 2pm

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