The Toronto Maple Leafs look to bounce back from their worst performance of the season against LA when they host the Philadelphia Flyers for a rare Friday night game at the ACC (7:00 p.m. EST, TSN4).
This game has the ingredients for an entertaining contest featuring a pair of teams playing high-event hockey early in the season. The 6-6-2 Flyers are scoring with ease through 14 games (3.36 gf/game, third in the NHL) but giving up even more (3.57 ga/game, 27th in the NHL). A 7-0 loss to the Kings dropped the Leafs to the bottom of the league in goals against and down to 11th in goals for (after sitting in and around the top five in goals for the first 12 games), but they’re generating more shot attempts than any other team in the league. They’re also allowing the fourth most. Both the Flyers and the Leafs have been undone by even-strength goaltending that is 30th and 29th in the league, respectively.
The Flyers have three players in the top 30 in NHL scoring in Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds, which trails only Chicago’s four. A top six of Read – Giroux – Simmonds and Konecny – Couturier – Voracek poses a tough matchup proposition; the Konecny – Couturier – Voracek has been the Flyers’ best and most consistent trio at even strength. Giroux is tied for the NHL lead in powerplay points with nine, leading a Flyers powerplay that sits second in the league with a 28.3% conversion rate. Staying out of the box in the first place will help the most, but staying aggressive on Giroux on the half wall — “the best in the league on the halfwall,” said Babcock today — will be key for the Leafs in penalty killing situations.
The Flyers’ blueline has also been highly productive through 13 games between the contributions of Mark Streit (10 points in 14 games), Shane Gostisbehere (9 points in 14 games), Brandon Manning (7 points) and Ivan Provorov (6 points). Radko Gudas has been a rock for the Flyers in the early going; he’s playing the most even strength minutes per game, has chipped in four points in eight games and the Flyers are controlling 56.33% of shot attempts with him on the ice.
The decision has been made to start Frederik Andersen against the Flyers rather than saving him for tomorrow versus the Penguins. In his notebook, Anthony Petrielli talked about saving Andersen for Pittsburgh to remove any excuses in the ultimate measure-up game. But the Flyers have been the more potent offense early in the season and giving the team the best chance to take two points in a rested situation versus a tired one seems to be the approach Mike Babcock is taking.
When the Leafs were blown out against Tampa Bay in late October, they bounced back with a 3-2 win over Florida two nights later. They’ll need a similar rebound effort coming off their worst loss of the season versus Los Angeles — a non-competitive effort in which they were outscored 7-0 and outshot 43-19. The Leafs have allowed 40+ shots in three of their last four games.
No lineup changes are expected despite the result of the most recent outing, with Mike Babcock suggesting that he doesn’t see a whole lot of options when it comes to switching up his forward lines. While he didn’t expand on the point, he seemed to be referring to a need for balance in terms of a puck retriever on each of his skilled units. He trusts the offensively slumping Leo Komarov on Nazem Kadri’s wing given the defensive responsibilities asked of that line, and he has been hesitant about dropping Zach Hyman (one point in 13 games) off of a line with Auston Matthews and William Nylander despite the line not scoring a goal in seven games. Ben Smith seems locked in as the fourth line center for the time being due to his positive draw differential (after a slow start in that regard) and 63% mark on the dot in shorthanded situations, even though he’s been underwhelming at even strength. Meanwhile, Seth Griffith was waived today to make space for Josh Leivo’s return from a conditioning stint with the Marlies.
As for the possibility of Frank Corrado getting into a game, Babcock pointed out that the Leafs are 3-1 in their last four and more patience will be required for the oft-scratched blueliner.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
Leo Komarov – Nazem Kadri – Connor Brown
van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Matt Martin – Ben Smith – Nikita Soshnikov
Defencemen
Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Roman Polak
Martin Marincin – Connor Carrick
Scratched: Frank Corrado, Peter Holland, Josh Leivo
Waivers: Seth Griffith
Injured: Matt Hunwick
Goaltenders
Starter: Frederik Andersen
Backup: Jhonas Enroth
Philadelphia Flyers Projected Lines
Forwards
Matt Read – Claude Giroux – Wayne Simmonds
Travis Konecny – Sean Couturier – Jakub Voracek
Michael Raffl – Brayden Schenn – Dale Weise
Scott Laughton – Pierre-Édouard Bellemare – Chris VandeVelde
Injured: Boyd Gordon
Defencemen
Michael Del Zotto – Shayne Gostisbehere
Ivan Provorov – Mark Streit
Brandon Manning – Radko Gudas
Goaltenders
Starter: Steve Mason (Probable)
Backup: Michal Neuvirth
