Toronto Maple Leafs (11-11-5, 25th in NHL) vs. San Jose Sharks (16-11-1, 15th in NHL)
Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. EST
Arena: Air Canada Centre
Watch: TSN4
Game Day Notes
– The defending Western Conference champion San Jose Sharks appear to be working their way out of a Stanley Cup Final hangover, entering the game winners of seven of their last ten after starting the season 9-8-1. After a sluggish start offensively, the Sharks have improved to 2.7 goals per game in their last 10. If their 5v5 shooting percentage continues to rebound (currently 6.7%, 22nd in the NHL), the Sharks should ascend up the league table. They’re giving up just 2.18 goals per game (5th in the NHL) and 26.3 shots per game (2nd), and have conceded just 19 goals in their last 10 games.
– With the addition of Mikkel Boedker up front and David Schlemko on the backend, the Sharks feel they’re a deeper and faster team than they were last season. They will pose a significant challenge for the Leafs as far as their zone exits. An interesting data dump by SportsLogIQ revealed that the Leafs have struggled to move the puck out of their zone with possession — their 20.7% dump-out rate is the sixth highest in the league. The Sharks are eighth in possession (52.1 CF%) with one of the league’s best shot differentials and thrive on a heavy forecheck. “[The Sharks] play a simple, direct, straight-ahead forecheck, grind-type game,” said Babcock today after the morning skate. “We’re going to have to keep them off our D.”
“We’re a hard team to play against because we have a combination of skill, speed and being hard and heavy,” said Sharks head coach Pete DeBoer.
– One of the areas holding the Sharks back offensively is their powerplay away from home, which is clicking at just 8.3% (28th in the NHL). That contrasts markedly with their man-advantage success at home (25.5%, third in the league).
– After back-to-back six-goal games in mid-November, the Leafs have experienced a bit of a return to Earth offensively on home ice in the past three weeks; they’ve scored eight goals over their last four games at the ACC. That said, the Leafs are coming off a game in which threw everything but the kitchen sink at Colorado’s Semyon Varlamov, dominating in shots, shot attempts and scoring chances despite a 3-1 loss. Toronto set an NHL season-high for shot attempts in a game (99) to go along with 52 shots on goal (a team season-high) against the Avalanche.
– The trio of Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski will pose a significant matchup challenge for the line of Leo Komarov – Nazem Kadri – Connor Brown; the Sharks’ top line has owned 59.29% of shot attempts and 67% of goals in 145 even strength minutes together. Pavelski’s recorded 11 points in his last 12, while Joe Thornton has five points in his last four after a bit of a slow start offensively (13 points in 24 games).
– No lineup changes are expected for the Leafs from their Sunday night loss versus Colorado. Mike Babcock confirmed that Martin Marincin will not be available for the next little while after sustaining an injury versus Boston.
Matchup Stats
Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com
| Overall Stats | SJ | Tor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 33 | 27 |
| Record % | 0.589 | 0.5 |
| Home Winning % | 0.714 | 0.615 |
| Away Winning % | 0.464 | 0.393 |
| Shootout Winning % | 0 | 0 |
| Goal Differential Per Game | 0.25 | -0.07 |
| Shot Differential Per Game | 4.32 | 1 |
| Hits Per Game | 20.2 | 25.8 |
| PIM Per Game | 7.3 | 10.9 |
| Opponent PIM Per Game | 7.9 | 12.3 |
| Goals Per Game | 2.43 | 2.93 |
| Even Strength Goals Per Game | 1.82 | 2.33 |
| Power Play Goals Per Game | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| Shots Per Game | 30.6 | 33 |
| Shots Per Goal | 12.6 | 11.3 |
| Team Shooting % | 0.079 | 0.089 |
| Power Play % | 0.183 | |
| Goals Against Per Game | 2.18 | 3 |
| ES Goals Against Per Game | 1.64 | 2.41 |
| PP Goals Against Per Game | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| Shots Against Per Game | 26.29 | 32 |
| Shots Against Per Goal | 12.07 | 10.67 |
| Opp. Team Shooting % | 0.083 | 0.094 |
| Penalty Kill % | 0.814 | 0.84 |
| Save % | 0.917 | 0.906 |
| Goals Against Average | 2.17 | 2.97 |
| Shutouts | 2 | 0 |
| Opponent Save % | 0.921 | 0.911 |
| Opponent Goals Against Average | 2.42 | 2.89 |
| Opponent Shutouts | 3 | 2 |
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
Leo Komarov – Nazem Kadri – Connor Brown
van Riemsdyk – Tyler Bozak – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Matt Martin – Ben Smith – Nikita Soshnikov
Defencemen
Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Matt Hunwick – Roman Polak
Scratched: Josh Leivo, Frank Corrado
Injured: Martin Marincin
Goaltenders
Starter: Frederik Andersen (Confirmed)
Backup: Antoine Bibeau
San Jose Sharks Projected Lines
Forwards
Patrick Marleau – Joe Thornton – Joe Pavelski
Joonas Donskoi – Logan Couture – Joel Ward
Kevin Labanc – Chris Tierney – Mikkel Boedker
Matthew Nieto – Tommy Wingels – Melker Karlsson
Defencemen
Paul Martin – Brent Burns
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – Justin Braun
Brenden Dillon – David Schlemko
Starter: Martin Jones (Confirmed)
Backup: Aaron Dell
Morning Skate: Mike Babcock’s Media Address
]Transcription] Mike Babcock on Andersen's workload, Kadri's progress, Marner learning the pros + more https://t.co/Th7PN12wQj
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) December 13, 2016
