Toronto Maple Leafs (23-16-9, 16th in NHL) vs. St. Louis Blues (24-21-5, 20th in NHL)
Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. EST
Arena: Scottrade Center
Watch: TSN4
Game Day Notes
– The Maple Leafs will have the honour of partaking in the debut of the Mike Yeo era in St. Louis tonight, which has Leafs fans concerned about the possible “dead cat bounce” effect of a mid-season coaching change. Between the results Mike Sullivan and to a lesser extent John Torchetti produced in Pittsburgh and Minnesota respectively last season — and Dave Cameron in Ottawa the season previous — there are a few recent examples of the positive impact a well-timed coaching change can make on an underachieving team.
As far as the Leafs are concerned tonight, the most pressing question is what effect does a new coach tend to have on his team in his very first game behind the bench?
Last February, new Blues head coach Mike Yeo was on the opposite side of his current situation after getting fired by the Minnesota Wild and replaced by interim coach John Torchetti. Torchetti won his first three games as the HC (and went 15-11-1 down the stretch to sneak into the playoffs).
Earlier this season, Tom Rowe’s Panthers lost a 2-1 shootout decision to the Blackhawks in Rowe’s first game, while the Islanders won their first game — a 3-0 shutout win over Dallas — in Doug Weight’s first game behind the bench a few weeks ago.
Other in-season coaching changes last season included Mike Sullivan and John Tortorella taking over in Pittsburgh and Columbus, respectively. Sullivan’s results speak for themselves (33-16-5 in the regular season followed by a Stanley Cup championship), but the Penguins actually lost their first three games under their new coach in December, 2015. While he couldn’t get the Blue Jackets’ season back on the rails, John Tortorella won his first game as head coach in Columbus last season in late October.
This season and last, therefore, teams are 3-1-1 in their first game following an in-season coaching change. Go back another two seasons to 2013-14, however, and the record for teams in the first game following an in-season coaching swap stands at 6-5-2.
– We won’t know for sure until game time, but Kristen Shilton is reporting that yesterday’s practice lines could be what Mike Babcock starts the game with tonight after the Leafs lost two games in a row on either side of the All-Star break — consecutive losses that included one of the team’s worst third periods of the season in Philadelphia followed by unequivocally their worst first period of the season (or of the last eight years) in Dallas.
Morning Skate Lines:
van Riemsdyk – Nazem Kadri – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Leo Komarov – Tyler Bozak – Connor Brown
Matt Martin – Ben Smith – Nikita Soshnikov
Mike Babcock says the practice lines may not survive warm-up:
Babcock on line changes: "I don’t if they’re even making the warmup tonight but looked all right today." #Leafs
— Terry Koshan (@koshtorontosun) February 2, 2017
We haven’t seen Nazem Kadri and Mitch Marner together much at even strength (about 60 minutes total), but they have combined for two even-strength goals this season — one in the last game in Dallas, another very early in the season against Florida — as well as four goals on the powerplay (all Kadri goals assisted by Marner). Hyman – Matthews – Nylander is a line we saw a lot of earlier in the season, particularly at home; the Matthews – Nylander duo produced offensive numbers that saw Nylander win rookie-of-the-month honours in October and the line was one of the better possession trios in the league at the time.
– Ben Smith is expected to make his return to the fourth line tonight, with Frederik Gauthier headed back down to the Marlies. “Freddie is going to get an opportunity to go down to the Marlies and be important and play more,” said Babcock. “We think that’s important. Freddie’s got lots of good skills. He’s got to get quicker and more assertive, and he’s got to take the physicality he played with up here to the Marlies and start taking over down there.”
Gauthier averaged 9:39 in TOI per game (1:08 shorthanded) in his 18 games with the Leafs, notching two goals and an assist while averaging 51.2% on the faceoff dot.
– Frederik Andersen will return to the pipes after his second pull of the season in Dallas, having conceded three goals in the opening 11 minutes. The last time Andersen was pulled from a game it was against Los Angeles in mid November after conceding four on 26 shots (in just 33 minutes). He rebounded with a win against Philadelphia in his next start.
Jake Allen will start for St. Louis after missing the team’s recent road trip in order to recharge his batteries and work with a sports psychologist. Allen’s .895 save percentage ranks 40th among the 42 goaltenders with more than 20 games played this season.
Matchup Stats
Statistics courtesy of SportingCharts.com
| Stat | Tor | StL |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55 | 53 |
| Record % | 0.573 | 0.53 |
| Home Winning % | 0.587 | 0.63 |
| Away Winning % | 0.542 | 0.386 |
| Shootout Winning % | 0.143 | 0.5 |
| Goal Differential Per Game | 0.29 | -0.32 |
| Shot Differential Per Game | 0.48 | 0.06 |
| Hits Per Game | 24.2 | 20.6 |
| PIM Per Game | 10.7 | 9.8 |
| Opponent PIM Per Game | 11 | 9.5 |
| Goals Per Game | 3.06 | 2.8 |
| Even Strength Goals Per Game | 2.25 | 2.12 |
| Power Play Goals Per Game | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| Shots Per Game | 32.6 | 27.7 |
| Shots Per Goal | 10.6 | 9.9 |
| Team Shooting % | 0.094 | 0.101 |
| Power Play % | 0.237 | 0.221 |
| Goals Against Per Game | 2.77 | 3.12 |
| ES Goals Against Per Game | 2.19 | 2.44 |
| PP Goals Against Per Game | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Shots Against Per Game | 32.1 | 27.6 |
| Shots Against Per Goal | 11.59 | 8.85 |
| Opp. Team Shooting % | 0.086 | 0.113 |
| Penalty Kill % | 0.849 | 0.828 |
| Save % | 0.914 | 0.887 |
| Goals Against Average | 2.73 | 3.09 |
| Shutouts | 3 | 3 |
| Opponent Save % | 0.906 | 0.899 |
| Opponent Goals Against Average | 3.01 | 2.77 |
| Opponent Shutouts | 2 | 2 |
Who’s Hot
- James van Riemsdyk: 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) in last 12 games
- Mitch Marner: 12 points (two goals and 10 assists) in last 12 games
- Nazem Kadri: seven points (two goals, five assists) during current five-game points streak and 15 points (seven goals, eight assists) in last 12 games
- Alex Pietrangelo: four points (one goal, three assists) the last three games
- Jaden Schwartz: seven points (one goal, six assists) in last five games
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
van Riemsdyk – Nazem Kadri – Mitch Marner
Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – William Nylander
Leo Komarov – Tyler Bozak – Connor Brown
Matt Martin – Ben Smith – Nikita Soshnikov
Defencemen
Morgan Rielly – Nikita Zaitsev
Jake Gardiner – Connor Carrick
Martin Marincin – Roman Polak
Goaltenders
Starter: Frederik Andersen (Confirmed)
Backup: Curtis McElhinney
Scratched: Matt Hunwick, Josh Leivo, Frank Corrado
St. Louis Blues Projected Lines
Forwards
Alexander Steen – Paul Stastny – David Perron
Jaden Schwartz – Jori Lehtera – Vladimir Tarasenko
Robby Fabbri – Patrik Berglund – Nail Yakupov
Scottie Upshall – Ivan Barbashev – Ryan Reaves
Defencemen
Jay Bouwmeester – Alex Pietrangelo
Carl Gunnarsson – Kevin Shattenkirk
Joel Edmundson – Colton Parayko
Goaltenders
Starter: Jake Allen (Confirmed)
Backup: Carter Hutton
Scratched: Robert Bortuzzo, Dmitrij Jaskin
Injured: Kyle Brodziak (foot)
Morning Skate: Mike Babcock
It appears as if Ben Smith is ready to come back into the lineup?
Mike Babcock: We’ll know after the trainers call me and tell me, after they look at it and see. Same with Rielly.
Is it a difficult decision with Ben and [Frederik Gauthier] with the way Freddie has been playing?
Babcock: He’s been really good, but we’re about Freddie’s development and Freddie’s opportunity. Freddie is going to get an opportunity to go down to the Marlies and be important and play more. We think that’s important. Freddie’s got lots of good skills. He’s got to get quicker and more assertive, and he’s got to take the physicality he played with up here to the Marlies and start taking over down there.
Any word on Rielly?
Babcock: I didn’t ask him. I’m assuming if he wants to play he’ll tell me, right?
The JVR – Kadri – Marner trio – what do you like about what they could bring to the table tonight?
Babcock: I didn’t like what was going on with the other group. It wasn’t about what I like. It’s about what I didn’t like. What I tried to do is try to look at the groups and see how we can be effective. That’s what we’re trying to do. I don’t know if they’ll even make it to warm-up tonight, but it looked alright today.
It’s important not to chase the game, I guess, Mike… it’s a tough league to do that.
Babcock: You’ve got to start on time. You’ve got to get prepared. You’ve got to play the structure and throw some competition level into that. You do those things, you have an opportunity.
Mike Yeo was talking about consistency and how your young guys seem so good at it. It’s kind of a rare feat for them. What is it about your guys that they’ve bounced back so well?
Babcock: I just think it’s the level of maturity of the guys. A lot of our young guys are really professional and really driven, so they bring it every night. A lot of our young guys are pushing our hockey club, let’s be honest. That’s a key for us. Last game, we weren’t ready and we didn’t play with any structure. You can’t win in the NHL like that. Ideally we get that back on track here and play right.
What allows Marner to be a guy who drives a line, despite being a rookie?
Babcock: That’s a great question. I always thought wingers couldn’t, and then I watched Kane and he can do it. There are a few guys in the NHL that can drive a line as a winger. They usually possess the puck more than other people. He’s one of those guys. His work ethic and his pace and his confidence give him an opportunity to do that.
At one point, this organization spoke about Marner and Nylander as potential centers. Do you see them as potential centers?
Babcock: I see Willy as a center for sure.
