Four wins from glory.
The Toronto Marlies face just one more hurdle in their quest for a first ever Calder Cup championship. The disappointment of the loss in the 2012 final will be a footnote in Marlies history should they overcome the Texas Stars this June.
Toronto and Texas have fairly recent playoff history in what proved a heartbreaking seven-game Western Conference Final for the Marlies in 2014. The Marlies led 2-0 late in the second period of Game 7 before collapsing and surrendering six goals, and the Stars went on to claim the Calder Cup after defeating St. John‘s in the final.
Better Know the Enemy: The Texas Stars
This season the Stars finished second in the Pacific Division with a 38-24-14 record — good for 90 points through 76 games.
The staggering part of their regular season campaign was the amount of games decided in overtime or the shootout (28 in total). The Stars led the league with 11 OT victories, lost six of nine shootouts, and were one of three teams to make the post-season despite posting a negative goal differential (223-231).
The Stars have lost just four games en route to the final — defeating the Ontario Reign (3-1), Tucson Roadrunners (4-1), and Rockford IceHogs (4-2) — and much like the regular season, overtime has played a central role in their postseason run.
Of their 15 games, nine have been decided in overtime, with a perfect 5-0 record on home ice and a 2-2 split on the road. It’s of no surprise, then, that Texas owns a strong 7-1 playoff home record compared to 4-3 on their travels.
A long-standing member of the Texas organization, left winger Curtis McKenzie has once more led the charge in the playoff after recording 48 points in 51 regular season games.
He’s the Stars leading post-season producer with 14 points, including four game-winners (two in OT), three power play markers, and four power play assists.
Like McKenzie, Travis Morin was a part of the 2014 team that tasted Calder Cup success. The veteran centerman was the Stars’ leading scorer through the regular season (61 points in 75 games) but has found offense a little harder to come by in the playoffs — of his eight points, five have been accrued on the power play (2-3).
Texas is strong down the middle of the ice and their four centers have all produced during the post-season. Justin Dowling (2-7-9) and Jason Dickinson (2-6-8) have been well complemented by rookie Sheldon Dries. The latter is a name to keep an eye on, as Dries has found the net seven times this playoff (tied for the AHL lead). A graduate of Western Michigan University, he’s an older rookie at 24 and he isn’t short on confidence, putting a league-high 44 shots on net in 15 games.
Brian Flynn is certainly a higher profile name, having been in the NHL the past few seasons with Montreal and Buffalo, respectively. Third in team scoring through the most recent regular season campaign, the right winger has added a further six goals and as many helpers in the playoffs.
A late addition to the Texas roster is 19-year-old winger Nicholas Caamano. A part of the Hamilton Bulldogs team that had a very successful season, the fifth round selection in the 2016 draft recorded three assists in six AHL games during his first taste of professional hockey last year.
Roope Hintz is another rookie making an impact with 11 points and sits tied for first among rookies with seven assists through the playoffs. The Finnish left-winger, drafted 49th overall in 2015, produced at .500ppg through the regular season and has stepped his game up a notch in the playoffs.
Brent Regner and Gavin Bayreuther — another Stars rookie procured from the NCAA — have provided offense from the blue line with eight and six points, respectively. The former has recorded four power play assists and his eight points are good for eighth overall in defense scoring.
A familiar goaltending foe stands in the way of Toronto clinching a Calder Cup: The highly experienced Mike McKenna was in net for Syracuse last season when the Crunch disposed of the Marlies en route to the 2017 final. He becomes the first goaltender to reach back-to-back Calder Cup Finals with two different teams since Olaf Kolzig did it with Rochester (1993) and Portland (1994). The 35-year-old leads all goaltenders in minutes played (975:33), saves (497), and owns a very impressive .940 save percentage.
Keys to Victory
The Marlies are undoubtedly the huge favourites entering the Final, having won nine straight games and swept a pair of 100-point teams. They have yet to lose on home ice, making use of that advantage to see off Utica Comets in a five-game opening round.
The Marlies biggest strength through the regular season was excellent defense and goaltending, but in the playoffs, it’s also been the balanced scoring through four lines that’s come to the fore. Six Marlie forwards have 10 or more points, while nine on the roster have found the net on three or more occasions.
The only disappointment is that there hasn’t been more offense from the blue line, with defenseman combining for just three goals, two of which were power play markers. Martin Marincin has led the way in points scoring off the blue line with six points (all assists).
In net, Garret Sparks has carried his form right through the year into the playoffs, recording 10 wins and a .926%.
Thanks to their winning streak, the Marlies are a well-rested team and are currently carrying just one injury, with Andreas Borgman the only absence of note. They proved rust wasn’t an issue with a Game 1 victory against Lehigh Valley Phantoms after an extended break and should have used the extra time to their advantage in preparing for this final.
Strong start
When they score first, the Marlies are 9-0 and Texas 8-0. The Marlies have yet to give up a lead when holding the advantage through the first or second period, and they’re 3-0 when tied through 20 minutes. The Stars have almost been as dominant after getting their nose in front, but they have proven themselves a tough team to put away with a .500 record when trailing after the first (2-2) and second (3-3) periods.
The team that wins Game 1 of the Calder Cup Final has gone on to hoist the Calder Cup 76.5% of the time.
Special Teams
Special teams have been key for both teams in post-season play, with each owning a power play clicking at over 22%, but the Marlies have found the net on 15 occasions compared to 11 for Texas. That’s because the Marlies have drawn more PP opportunities than any other playoff team, with 64 drawn to date.
The Stars own the edge on the PK, but the Marlies’ penalty kill has been much improved since Game 5 of the Utica series and should be more of a weapon than the current 81% mark would suggest.
Goaltending battle
Texas will ultimately be heavily reliant on Mike McKenna, with rookie Landon Bow getting the yank during his lone playoff appearance. It’s unlikely with his wealth of experience, but if the Marlies are able to rattle the veteran netminder or light him up early in the series, it would provide a headache or two for Texas. The Marlies, of course, have the luxury of turning to Calvin Pickard should they want to give Garret Sparks a rest, but with only one back-to-back throughout the series, it seems unlikely Sheldon Keefe will turn to his 1B, barring something unforeseen performance or injury wise.
Offense led by Line #1
Toronto’s hottest player is Andreas Johnsson, who is riding a six-game point streak (5-6-11). Along with Miro Aaltonen and Carl Grundstrom, the Marlies’ top line is unrivalled in this playoff as a potent offensive force (a combined 35 playoff points), and their success or otherwise will be a huge factor in the series.
Coaching
With the two teams not having faced each other through the regular season, the coaches, including the video staff, will be vital in making key adjustments from the opening puck drop. The lack of familiarity certainly didn’t faze Toronto in the last round, as they quickly came to grips with Lehigh en route to the sweep. Their extended backroom staff should give the Marlies an edge in that regard, especially with the first two games on home ice.
Home Ice Advantage
The Marlies are a perfect 7-0 on home ice and have won four straight on their travels, which puts a little pressure on a Texas team that is 4-3 on the road, having recently lost two straight in Rockford. The Stars are 7-1 at the HEB Center at Cedar Park, where they’ve found a way to win five one-goal games. If the Marlies were to hold serve this weekend, it would obviously go a long way toward securing the franchise’s first ever championship.
Toronto Marlies vs. Texas Stars – Calder Cup Final Schedule
Toronto Marlies vs Texas Stars Playoff Schedule
| Date | Home Team | Puck Drop | TV Network |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, June 2 | Toronto | 4 p.m. EST | LNN/TSN 2 |
| Sunday, June 3 | Toronto | 4 p.m. EST | LNN/TSN 2 |
| Tuesday, June 5 | Texas | 8 p.m. EST | LNN/TSN 2 |
| Thursday, June 7 | Texas | 8 p.m. EST | LNN/TSN 2 |
| Saturday, June 9* | Texas | 8 p.m. EST | LNN/TSN 2 |
| Tuesday, June 12* | Toronto | 7 p.m. EST | LNN/TSN 2 |
| Thursday, June 14* | Toronto | 7 p.m. EST | LNN/TSN 2 |
