Winners of six straight, the rested Maple Leafs are in Calgary tonight to face a rolling Flames team playing its second game of a back-to-back (9 p.m. EST, TSN4 & Sportsnet West).
To the relief of Leaf fans everywhere, Auston Matthews will play tonight after leaving late in the game in Monday’s overtime win over Carolina due to an awkward fall and blow to the back of his head. Matthews practiced on Wednesday, so it doesn’t appear that there was any serious concern about a head injury on the part of the Leafs‘ medical team.
After sitting out eight games with a concussion diagnosis, Jake Muzzin will also return to the Leafs‘ lineup tonight. Muzzin, a very important piece for the Leafs as they move into the latter half of the season, is looking to put an uncharacteristically inconsistent first 35 games behind him — per evolving-hockey.com, his overall defensive rating is just above replacement this season, his worst rating in any single season since his rookie year.
Historically, Muzzin has also been a well above average offensive contributor from the backend, but he has fallen off this season in that department as well. Ultimately, his recovery from an injury combined with the All-Star break means Muzzin has had a lot of time to reflect, recover, and hopefully hit the reset button on his 2021-22 season. Justin Holl’s game generally trending the right way of late shouldn’t hurt his cause, but they’ll need to find their way as a pairing again after many weeks apart.
With Wayne Simmonds on the roster but back at home after the birth of his second child plus the return of Muzzin, the Leafs will go with 11 forwards and seven defensemen tonight in lieu of the cap challenges created by recalling either Nick Ritchie or Kyle Clifford from the Marlies. That means Liljegren and Dermott will rotate in and out of Sandin’s right side; Dermott is playing through a minor illness, so “it may work out that way,” in the words of Sheldon Keefe. It also gives Keefe more options to change the mix if Muzzin-Holl experience some speed bumps.
Running alongside Toronto as one of the hottest teams in the league at the moment, Calgary has maintained a very high calibre of five-on-five play as of late. During their stretch of seven wins in the last nine games, the Flames have been scoring at a rate of close to four goals per game at even strength (their power play’s 1-for-16 stretch in their last six games is the only thing that isn’t clicking). The 200-foot game Darryl Sutter has his group — particularly his big guns offensively — bought into is yielding ample fruit offensively at evens.
This [Flames] team here is similar in nature [to Carolina] in terms of the fact that they make it really difficult for you to score and they’re in you’re face and competitive, yet they counter very well on the offensive side of it.
– Sheldon Keefe
Calgary’s top line of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm, and Matthew Tkachuk has played 523 minutes together this season, the most in the NHL and 32% more than the next best line in shared TOI. It’s no exaggeration to suggest they’ve been among the league’s most effective, scoring 78% of the goals in their minutes and sporting a 64% xG rating.
Toronto’s top line, solidified by the consistent and complementary play of Michael Bunting alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, has propelled itself to an even higher plane than the Flames’ top unit as Mitch Marner’s hot streak continues. In fact, they best Calgary’s trio in every category outside of goals against — they have scored at a higher rate, generated chances at a higher rate, and surrendered fewer xGA per game.
The expectation earlier this week was that Jack Campbell would return to the crease after a night off vs. Carolina coming out of the All-Star weekend, but we’ll await final confirmation. For the Flames, Jakob Markstrom is expected to make his 11th(!) straight start despite playing last night in the first half of a back-to-back. He earned a shutout last night in another dominant win for Calgary and has now won six of his last eight starts. This season, he sits 18-10-5 with a .925 save percentage.
Looks like Calgary sticking with the same lineup tonight vs. Toronto. Only Vladar, Stone, Richardson skating this morning.
Starter’s net empty, so looks like Markstrom starts his 11th straight game. #Flames
— Pat Steinberg (@Fan960Steinberg) February 10, 2022
Game Day Quotes
Sheldon Keefe on a possible Lindholm line vs. Matthews line matchup:
If they’re going to be playing against each other, it’s going to be about a battle for the puck. Those are two lines that are feeling it offensively and really driving things for their team.
[For] both teams, no matter who is playing against who, if they’re on the ice, you’re trying to get the puck from them and make them defend. That’s the greatest challenge for us, no matter who’s playing [Calgary’s top line].
Keefe on Muzzin’s season thus far and the importance of getting him back in the lineup:
First of all, I think the defensive pieces have been there for him. He’s been solid for us in that way. Some of his play with the puck — he’s looking for some consistency there to move it clean out of our end and get going. This reset here may turn out to be a positive for him in that sense. Obviously, with the type of injury, there’s nothing positive about that. But, with the time off and the All-Star break being in there, he hasn’t missed as many games as he would have.
He’s had a lot of work on the ice — both in practice settings and with our player development team — and I think those things could help. It served Justin Holl well just the same. We’re looking for some consistency with that pair.
He’s a confident guy and he’s very self-aware — he knows when he’s not at his best, so you don’t have to say a lot to him. I’m not too concerned about [his confidence] — he’s a guy who knows what’s happening and wants to be better. At the same time, we can’t downplay [what] he brings to our team. Even when he hasn’t been at his best, he’s still doing a ton of really good things that are helping us win hockey games.
Keefe on facing a Darryl Sutter-coached Flames team:
I don’t know if patience is the right word, but, when our opportunities are there, we need to make good on them. They’re going to be hard to come by. This team here, they’re not just a team that defends well; they’re a team that’s thriving offensively. Their best people, in particular, are dominating games, so they present a lot of challenges for us.
We had focused a lot on the Carolina game — preparing for that, knowing what to expect. This team here is similar in nature in terms of the fact that they make it really difficult for you to score and they’re in you’re face and competitive, yet they counter very well on the offensive side of it.
Darryl Sutter on Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews:
They’re top-end players. That’s not a comparison to our [line] — it’s a totally different line to the Lindholm line. I mean, Auston Matthews is arguably the purest shooter and goal scorer in the league. That’s a big difference — he’s a power guy when you look at it.
Marner is the whole package — he doesn’t get enough credit. He’s kind of like [the Leafs‘ Lindholm], where he doesn’t get enough credit for the whole game that he plays, the way he manages puck and makes plays. That’s a big challenge, those two guys.
Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines
Forwards
#58 Michael Bunting – #34 Auston Matthews – #16 Mitch Marner
#5 Alex Kerfoot – #91 John Tavares – #88 William Nylander
#65 Ilya Mikheyev – #64 David Kampf – #25 Ondrej Kase
#47 Pierre Engvall – #19 Jason Spezza
Defensemen
#44 Morgan Rielly – #78 TJ Brodie
#8 Jake Muzzin – #3 Justin Holl
#38 Rasmus Sandin – #23 Travis Dermott
#37 Timothy Liljegren
Goaltenders
Starter: #36 Jack Campbell
#35 Petr Mrazek
Extras: Wayne Simmonds (personal)
Calgary Flames Projected Lines
Forwards
#13 Johnny Gaudreau – #28 Elias Lindholm – #19 Matthew Tkachuk
#88 Andew Mangiapane – #11 Mikael Backlund – 20 Blake Coleman
#29 Dillon Dube – #23 Sean Monahan – #24 Brett Ritchie
#17 Milan Lucic – #63 Adam Ruzicka – #22 Trevor Lewis
Defensemen
#55 Noah Hanifin – #4 Rasmus Andersson
#58 Oliver Kylington – #8 Chris Tanev
#16 Nikita Zadorov – #44 Erik Gudbranson
Goaltenders
Starter: #25 Jakob Markstrom
#80 Daniel Vladar
Injured: Tyler Pitlick
