Early in the season, Joseph Woll took over the Maple Leafs’ net and was stringing quality starts together. His .916 save percentage is well above the current league average of .903, which not only helped the Leafs compile points but covered up for some defensive deficiencies in the team’s game.
At the time, Woll’s strong play coincided with several injuries on defense, so it was somewhat easy to shrug off some of the defensive issues and dismiss them until the blue line got healthy and properly sorted.
Then Woll got injured, Ilya Samsonov continued to struggle (as he has all season), and now it’s Martin Jones’ net for the time being. It’s not exactly how the Leafs brass drew it up, but so far, the team is managing reasonably well. As a team, Toronto is 18th in 5v5 save percentage, which is by no means terrible, all things considered.
While the goalie situation has been in a constant state of flux, the defense has recently started trending toward full health. Timothy Liljegren is back, Mark Giordano is nearing a return, and if anything, John Klingberg’s injury has been case of addition by subtraction.
This should be a time when the Leafs buckle down defensively and double down on protecting the net to create a safe environment for their goalies to succeed. Against the Sabres las week, this was anything but the case.
Ilya Samsonov struggled and two of the goals were terrible, but if anyone thinks this is strictly a goaltending issue, they are kidding themselves. The team’s defensive metrics are down across the board from last year:
Leafs defensive stats.
Last year vs this year. pic.twitter.com/v8iBE0ROoG
— Meghan Chayka (@MeghanChayka) December 23, 2023
After practice the day following the blowout loss to the Sabres, Sheldon Keefe was direct in assessing the team’s issues, appearing fully aware that the defensive numbers are far more than solely a goaltending problem:
“I am more focused on the fact that it was a highway to our net. We have to make it way harder for teams to get to our net. At times this season, we have done that very well. I thought we went through about a 10-game stretch probably somewhere around game 10-20 where I thought we were defending really well and really slowing things up. Of late, we have regressed in that area. We have been finding ways to get results and scoring, so some of that stuff hasn’t hurt us necessarily, but it has been lingering.”
The team followed up the debacle against the Sabres by giving up a collection of chances to the Columbus Blue Jackets and needing to rely on Martin Jones in net. At five-on-five, they actually trailed in expected goals by 2.01 to 1.72. Before anyone mentions score effects, 1.52 of Columbus’ xGF came in the first period.
Is that how the team responds to a shellacking by Buffalo, particularly in the first period? It is a Columbus team that ranks 29th in expected goals, and if they were a more dangerous team, the conversation would likely be a lot different than the Leafs winning 4-1 and quieting the noise heading into the Christmas break.
Justin Danforth scored on a breakaway, and two minutes later at four-on-four, he went on another breakaway but missed. John Tavares went down the ice the other way and scored a special goal. Again, they got away with this type of play against the Blue Jackets, but there are concerning signs. The team won’t be able to play a confidence-boosting game against Columbus in the middle of the playoffs.
Some of the struggles are personnel-related. Their situation on defense has been well-documented. It’s clear that they need to add quality.
At forward, it’s a different story. While the Leafs did say goodbye to checkers like Alex Kerfoot and even Zach Aston-Reese in favour of more productive contributors like Max Domi and Noah Gregor, it’s probably more noteworthy that they have two rookies in their top nine (it’s three in their top 12 if we include Bobby McMann, who is new to the league even if he’s not technically a rookie anymore at age 27). Even an excellent rookie like Matthew Knies is going to go through the regular trials and tribulations every rookie is going to experience.
The results the Matthews and Marner line are producing with Knies are a notch below what they were with a pro like Calle Jarnkrok last season as well as Michael Bunting, who – while technically deemed a rookie at the start of his Leaf tenure – was past his mid-20s with years of pro hockey experience. If we tack on the three NHL regular season and seven playoff games Knies played last season, it gives him a total of 50 games in a single season, his highest total in the past four seasons. There are going to be growing pains.
Of course, it is worthwhile to live with these growing pains. The payoff with Knies, in particular, should be well worth it. Adding more scoring talent has not been all bad, either. The Leafs are scoring 3.58 goals per game, which ranks third in the league. If it stands, it would be the second-highest mark of the Matthews era and the second-highest goal total the Leafs have scored in the past 33 seasons.
On the flip side, the Leafs rank 23rd in goals per game, 27th in shots allowed per game, and 26th in expected goals against per 60 minutes. Those are numbers that are below their talent level. There are too many returning players from last season for the defensive results to sink to bottom-feeder numbers.
In two straight games last week, the Leafs allowed a goal right through the middle of the neutral zone as their forwards and defensemen seemingly miscommunicated leading to simple breakdowns. Below, Braden Schneider took a pass at center ice, skated in a straight line right through the heart of the ice, and went on a mini-breakaway where he scored the game-winning goal.
Below, the Sabres went on a 2v1 from the blue line in on this play after the Leafs forward (Bobby McMann) and defenseman (Simon Benoit) skated to check the same player.
These are simple plays and inexcusable breakdowns as the halfway point of the season approaches. The number of goals the Leafs have conceded when they have the puck cleanly on their sticks only to give it away is also alarming.
The hardest thing to acquire in the NHL is goal-scoring talent. The Leafs have an abundance of it. But the team needs to commit more defensively to – at minimum – stop handing the opposition freebies. It simply needs to be cleaned up if this team is going anywhere in the spring.
Notes
– Jake McCabe went pointless in his first 11 games of the season, but since then, he has 10 points in 14 games. We’re even starting to see him pull off some nice plays. Whether it was showing patience in the corner of the offensive zone before finding Matthews in the slot for a goal against the Rangers or unloading a cannon against Columbus to score a goal, he is showing that he can actually produce to some degree for a player whose career high in points is only 25.
Of McCabe’s 10 points this season, eight have come at even strength. It seems small, but even-strength points are difficult to come by for defensemen. Last season, 47 defensemen recorded at least 25 points, and the five defensemen who produced 25 exactly were Drew Doughty, Moritz Seider, Jamie Oleksiak, Jakob Chychrun (in 48 games), and McCabe.
– Since the Leafs went to Sweden, Max Domi is averaging 10:56 per game at even strength, Noah Gregor is at 10:47, David Kampf is at 10:36, and Nick Robertson is at 9:50. In tight games or whenever the Leafs have a lead, Keefe is regularly turning to Gregor – Kampf – Jarnkrok as the third line. The Leafs are starting games with the Domi-led line as the third line, but it’s fair to say that the usage is starting to shade towards Kampf in the third-line center role. If nothing else, it’s a situational third line depending on whether the Leafs are leading or chasing the game.
Eventually, the big question will concern what happens when they are in a tied game, especially at playoff time. Scoring enough has been one of their Achilles heels in tight series and games.
– Against Buffalo, Mitch Marner committed a horrible giveaway, directly resulting in a goal. He put the puck right on Alex Tuch’s tape, and within two seconds, it was in the back of the Leafs net. Marner went pointless in the game on top of his role in the goal against that made it 3-2 for Buffalo. The Sabres continued to build the lead the rest of the way, and yet Marner led all Leafs forwards in ice time when the game was over.
In the next game, Marner was promoted to the top line and again led all Leafs forwards in ice time. We’ve seen Tyler Bertuzzi berated and benched for a lot worse. I know most readers, fans, and pundits alike are well aware of the double standard at play, but the latest example is still noteworthy nonetheless.
– The “new” fourth line of Bobby McMann – David Kampf – Noah Gregor is up to nearly 60 minutes together at 5v5 and has two scored goals together while giving up three. It doesn’t sound like much to write home about, but they have been used in a checking matchup role with an offensive-zone faceoff percentage of 22.58 percent. Despite the deployment, they are drawing nearly even in shot attempts (48.67 percent).
McMann’s speed, size (6’2 and 210 pounds), and ability to carry the puck have given Kampf and Gregor an outlet to move the puck up ice. All three of them are comfortable cycling. Against the Sabres, they were arguably the team’s best line and strung together really good shifts in the first period, hemming the Sabres in their zone and drawing a penalty. Those are little gains, but it’s showing signs it’s a line Keefe can trust to not just check but potentially grind in the offensive zone and wear the opposition down.
Quotes
“Despite the fact that Matthews has been scoring consistently, I don’t know if I would say Willy has been a huge contributor to those goals. I believe that Auston could still continue to be Auston and work well no matter who we have him with.
The Tavares and Bertuzzi line (with Nylander) has been the best line we have had all season when they’ve been together.”
– Sheldon Keefe on switching up William Nylander and Mitch Marner in the team’s top six
This has been a common comment from Keefe over the years: Auston Matthews and William Nylander are both productive together but don’t necessarily make each other better. If you look at the data over the last three years, Matthews-Marner outpaces Matthews-Nylander in possession, goal share, and expected goals. There is at least some merit to the argument.
Perhaps the more noteworthy development is that William Nylander appears better at driving the second line with John Tavares now as opposed to Marner, which is loosely alluded to by Keefe above. That is particularly noteworthy with both players’ contracts close to expiring as well, but we’ll leave this conversation for another day.
“It’s tough right now. I need to figure out everything in my head. It’s not about technique. It’s not about nothing. Just in the head… Just about mental spot.”
– Ilya Samsonov after a tough outing against the Sabres where he was pulled 28 minutes into the game
Earlier in the season, we highlighted some post-game quotes from Ilya Samsonov in which he joked about needing glasses to see point shots. It was a self-deprecating way to handle his struggles and a tough thing to do in a market like this one. Now, he is bluntly acknowledging the confidence issues he’s battling.
Samsonov is clearly fighting it, and it’s obviously not a question of talent. Similar to Jack Campbell before him, I think it’s a particularly poor approach to voice those troubles through the media in this market where everything is magnified. It’s not conducive to clearing your head and improving your focus, either.
“Embarrassment is probably the right word to use. Just from start to finish, top to bottom, not nearly good enough. Just a bad hockey game from our team tonight.”
– Auston Matthews after losing 9-3 to the Buffalo Sabres
Look, bad games are going to happen over the course of an 82-game season. That’s just the nature of the sport. But what was truly disappointing is that they didn’t even stop the bleeding. Samsonov was pulled after allowing five, in came Martin Jones, and they got outscored 4-0 from that point forward. The goals: a breakaway, a backdoor tap-in, a three-way passing play below the top of the circle for a one-timer in the slot into an empty net, and a shot in the slot as four Leafs stood around watching.
Tweets of the Week
Here's another crazy Matthews stat for you:
He has more career goals than anyone drafted in the last 12 years (since 2011 when Auston was 13 and still five years out from his own draft)
— Flow Jerguson (@joeyferg) December 24, 2023
It’s hard to describe just how bad and lifeless this organization was for the better part of a decade. To not only win the draft lottery but to draft a legitimate superstar in Auston Matthews – who is the top one percent of the top one percent of the top one percent – is something to really appreciate. He’s the best goal scorer in the league, and it’s not particularly close.
The most impressive part of it is that Matthews can score in every which way. He isn’t a one or two-trick pony. He can go down on the rush and snipe. He can one-time cross-ice passes in. He deflects pucks in. He has a wraparound move. The list goes on.
Fraser Minten is the first Leafs prospect to be named captain for Canada’s World Juniors team since Dan Hogdson in 1984 #Leafs365 #LeafsForever https://t.co/l173dpBlLi
— Mike Commito (@mikecommito) December 24, 2023
It has been 40 years since a draft pick of the Maple Leafs captained Team Canada at the World Juniors. It is a nice recognition for Fraser Minten, who is on a promising upward trajectory. He’s played NHL games already, he is well-positioned for a Memorial Cup run, and now he’s captaining the WJC Canadian squad.
For whatever it’s worth, recent Canada captains have been a mixed bag when it comes to NHL careers: Shane Wright, Mason McTavish, Kirby Dach, Barrett Hayton, Maxime Comtois, Dillon Dube, Dylan Strome, Brayden Point, Curtiz Lazar, and Scott Laughton are the last 10 before Minten.
John Tavares is honoured in Toronto as he became the 98th player in NHL history to reach 1000 points. pic.twitter.com/9vCRYfjA7M
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) December 20, 2023
This was really well done by the Leafs. Before Brendan Shanahan was hired, there was a run where the Leafs’ pre-game ceremonies were tough to watch. At one point, they put on too many, and at a separate point, they were flat-out poorly done. They are few and far between now, but when the organization does them, they’re special.
A few that come to mind include Tavares’, Borje Salming’s last year, and the jersey retirement and the Legends Row ceremony with Dave Keon. It’s part of the product and entertainment experience and worthy of some recognition.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. I think it would be worthwhile to try a three-line attack where Mitch Marner reunites with Max Domi, Calle Jarnkrok moves up to play with Auston Matthews (where he was successful last season), and Tyler Bertuzzi – John Tavares – William Nylander remain together.
The “third” line with Domi has really become the Leafs’ fourth line by ice time; Keefe clearly trusts the Kampf line more, and rightfully so, to be honest. But a Bobby McMann – David Kampf – Noah Gregor combination is simply not a proper third line. In the big picture, they are better off trying to create three lines, but with the current personnel, it’s not going to happen if they’re loading up the top two lines.
It’s falling into the same traps as previous seasons, which we even saw when they acquired an additional center in Ryan O’Reilly last season (Keefe immediately tried to cram it all into two lines). A contender needs three lines, and the Leafs aren’t going to get there right now with this alignment.
2. At this point, I think I would clearly rate Simon Benoit ahead of William Lagesson and Conor Timmins in the defensemen pecking order. Timmins has been too much of an adventure to trust consistently, and in a depth role, Benoit offers a bit more in terms of physicality, stopping cycles dead with his strength and size along the walls, and blocking shots. Plus, he’s younger (and a pending RFA).
Lagesson also really struggled on the right side playing with Benoit, so I’d go back to Timmins and see how it goes, but I would probably alternate between those two with the four veterans above them all firmly locked in as regulars.
3. I think this is a critical stretch of games upcoming for Nick Robertson to cement himself into the lineup. After a hot start with four points in four games, his game has really quieted down with five points in his last 16.
In the Leafs’ last two games, Robertson has played just 9:14 and 7:50. If the offense isn’t there, he’s really struggling to break out, which has been somewhat mitigated by starting 82.5 percent of his offensive zone starts at 5v5 so far this season. He’s underwater in shot attempt share and expected goals and is flashing less and less offensively.
You can live with the defensive struggles to some degree if there is production on the other side, but Robertson can’t struggle to consistently produce or create while also struggling defensively. He’s better than their other options on the Marlies – and it’s worthwhile to give him as many games as possible for the time being as he develops – but it looks like a clear roster spot to upgrade on at this point.
4. I think it should be noted that there’s nothing wrong with giving Robertson reps and then upgrading his lineup spot before the deadline. Last season, Vegas’ young prospect Pavel Dorofeyev came on strong for the Golden Knights down the stretch with some big games while producing nine points in 18 appearances. Vegas added veterans at the trade deadline, became healthy, and Dorofeyev didn’t touch the ice in the playoffs.
Unless it is a bonafide young star, successful playoff teams are generally full of established players in the league. In Toronto, similar situations have applied to players like Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin in recent years. Truthfully, the Leafs probably haven’t done a good enough job over the past few years of balancing developing young talent and acquiring proper veterans to fill critical holes in the lineup.
5. I think I would go into this week planning to start Martin Jones against the Senators and Hurricanes and Ilya Samsonov against the Blue Jackets. It has obviously been tough sledding for Samsonov, but I think it’s far too early to suggest giving up on him. I’m not entirely sure he would clear waivers either, to be honest, as goalie-needy teams with cap space – e.g. Red Wings and Hurricanes – would have to consider putting a claim in on a one-year flier.
We are not even a calendar year removed from Samsonov outplaying Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first round of the playoffs in what was the best series a Leafs goalie has put together since Eddie Belfour. The upside to getting Samsonov going is still worth trying to ride it out at this point as long as the Leafs are firmly in a playoff position.
