MLHS’ Anthony Petrielli joined The Fan Morning Show to discuss the Maple Leafs’ preseason battle for jobs, potential contract extensions for Matthew Knies and Jake McCabe, and if/where Max Pacioretty fits into the Maple Leafs’ forward lineup.
Petrielli on the noticeable differences in Craig Berube’s style of hockey so far in preseason:
The biggest difference at five-on-five is just their breakouts up the ice. They’re a little bit quicker in how they go about it — a lot of quick chips up the wall kind of thing as opposed to long-drawn-out regroups.
Going back and rewatching a few of the games, I pretty much never saw them regroup, which was essentially a staple under Sheldon Keefe—the circle back. Fans probably think about Pierre Engvall with the big, wide circle back into the Leafs‘ zone instead of attacking. They are a little bit quicker about pushing up ice and getting the puck up there.
As much as they have improved the defense, I think everyone understands that the strength of their team is at forward. Get those guys the puck to go to work.
Petrielli on the upcoming roster crunch at the forward position before opening night:
Part of the equation, and I hadn’t considered it until yesterday because he was finally on the ice with the first group for the first time, is Connor Dewar. He gets forgotten and lost in the shuffle, maybe in part because he is small, so people don’t always recognize that he is good at his role.
I thought he changed the Leafs‘ fourth line when he came. He was such a big upgrade on Noah Gregor. It was the first time the fourth line was viable. It was getting caught underwater before, and he did a good job of making them respectable with his speed and the way he pushed the puck up the ice and got in on the forecheck. He is legitimately good defensively and flashed potential on the penalty kill.
A big question I had in the background: When is he back? To me, he is in the lineup if he is healthy. I hadn’t thought he would be healthy yet, and then he took practice with the first team.
If Dewar is starting on LTIR, Steven Lorentz has a clear path. He is a replacement for Dewar for the time being in terms of being responsible defensively, the ability to pitch in at center — although that’s not ideal — and on the penalty kill. If Dewar is healthy, are they going to platoon Lorentz and Reaves? Are they going to go in a completely different direction with the fourth line?
At some point, they are going to have to trade someone. If they are planning on signing Pacioretty and Lorentz, and if Dewar is even weeks away from being fully healthy, the math is just not going to work.
Petrielli on whether Max Pacioretty fits the Leafs‘ mix:
Ultimately, if you look at the group, it is about whose job he is going to take in the top nine.
I don’t think you can play a player like this on the fourth line. He has been a top-six staple his whole career. To now look at him and say, “Play 8-10 minutes a night and be effective…”
I know Jason Spezza kind of did it here. Some would say it was successful. Personally, it is just not my style of fourth line. I don’t think it is Craig Berube’s style of fourth line. I don’t think he is looking at squeezing a little bit of skill and what juice this guy has left in a fourth-line role to hopefully chip in the odd goal. If you look at Berube’s career, at points, he did have Alex Steen down there towards the end, but Steen was also a really detailed, defensive checker. He has deployed those types of workers on the fourth line.
If Pacioretty is not in the top nine, I don’t see the fit. If you go through the group into the top nine, do you want him taking touches over Nick Robertson? Do you want him taking touches over Bobby McMann? Personally, I would rather see those guys get those looks on the power play and additional ice time. If they stay healthy, both guys can push for 20+ goals this year. I am not sure Pacioretty — coming off of four goals in 47 games, age 36, and with his skating on the decline — can do that.
Petrielli on whether the personnel upgrade is the biggest hope for defensive improvement or if Berube’s structure is the biggest avenue for solidifying the defensive play:
It will definitely be both.
There were times when the Leafs did lock things down defensively under Sheldon Keefe. They were reasonable in terms of goals against in a number of years. All of those times, it was because the forwards checked competently. There were years when it was a little more wide open. It impacted the results. The defense wasn’t getting support.
If we look back to last season, there was a point in the middle of the season when they healthy-scratched David Kampf because they were expecting and relying on him to be a defensive presence.
Some of those things can be mended in terms of having the forwards be a little more defensively responsible. Everyone always points to the six guys on the blue line. That is human nature across all levels of hockey, but the forwards play a massive role in it.
I do think Berube will help in that, but I also think the talent brought in is a notable upgrade. Chris Tanev is miles better than anyone who went out the door in the summer. Oliver Ekman-Larsson likely is, as well. It does make a difference, too.
Petrielli on the usage of Matthews-Marner this season if they remain together:
If those two are together for most of the season, they are going to have to justify that by going against the other team’s top line night in and night out and beating them outright.
It is not just Matthews and Marner together. It will likely be Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev as their D duo behind them. If that five-man unit — the top defense pair and the top two forwards — are together on the ice, the only option at that point is for them to go head-to-head, win those minutes, and set the table for the rest of the team behind them.
They couldn’t possibly justify keeping them together and not doing that. Anything else would be nonsensical and detrimental to the rest of the lineup.
Petrielli on the idea of a contract extension for Matthew Knies:
He wasn’t lights out in college in terms of production. It wasn’t like he had gaudy numbers. He was really good in college, obviously, and was a contender for player of the year. It is not to say that he wasn’t really good, but he wasn’t lighting it up to the tune that we see some of the other higher-ranked players or players with higher pedigree in terms of offensive potential.
Last year, he was good. He was effective on the ice. He was noticeable at times. This was in his rookie year playing in this market with two guys who, for as awesome as they are, can be a little difficult to play with. Not everyone can keep up with them. Tyler Bertuzzi looked largely like a fish out of water alongside them. Those are all good things, but he had 35 points last year with 15 goals.
When I look at him, I go, “If everything goes right, I could see him having a couple of years where he has mid-30s goals and potentially pushes for 40, but in terms of overall production, I don’t know if he would be more than a 75-ish point guy.” I don’t see that from his game in part because he checks a lot. A lot of his game is forechecking and being defensively strong and in the right spots. I wouldn’t say he has blazing speed.
To me, he is capped reasonably offensively, but his benefits will be his ability to impact the game all over the ice, which is what we saw against Boston. To me, he was one of the team’s standout players in that series, and it wasn’t necessarily because of his production, even though he had some big moments and the big OT goal. It was really the way he impacted games from shift to shift.
It would be interesting to square that from a value perspective if they are trying to get ahead of it and pay him now. I think it would be hard for them to come to a number that Matthew Knies would accept on a long-term deal that would also make sense to the Leafs from a value perspective.
Petrielli on the rumoured Jake McCabe contract extension (reported by Nick Kypreos to be in the neighbourhood of six years, $5 million AAV):
It is another tough one, too. I love Jake McCabe. I don’t think anyone dislikes the player. He is also turning 32 by the time the next contract will start. He is turning 31 in such order — October 12 — and by the time the contract extension kicks in, he will be 32.
By and large, he is coming off of a career season. It was easily the best overall season of his career — a career-high in goals, a career-high in points, and the second-highest ice-time total of his career. He played the right side and did it well. It was the first time he was on a team at the start of training camp that actually made the playoffs, and he played a large role in it. It was as good of a season as he had in the league.
At the same time, he is an established top-four defenseman. This is not to say that this is the first time he has been a top-four defenseman. He has been a legitimately solid one. He is a really good defensive defenseman and has been for a long time. He’s just been on some really bad teams throughout his career.
You have to pay to keep those guys, and I don’t think whatever the salary is would be concerning. It is more the term. We hear six years, and now you are paying him in his age 32-38 seasons. That is tough, and it is compounded by Morgan Rielly being signed for five more years starting next year. Chris Tanev will have five years left. Ekman-Larsson will have three years left. Now, you are going to add McCabe potentially for six years on top of it?
There are a few schools of thought. “Who cares? They are trying to win right now.” We know this is bad, and it is going to end badly, so you better win in the two-or-three window you have there to justify paying the piper down the road.
