MLHS’ Anthony Petrielli joined Sportsnet Today to discuss the Maple Leafs’ slower offensive start to the season, the team’s lack of depth contributions, the early success of the Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander line, and the workload split in goal.
Petrielli on the level of optimism vs. pessimism after a 6-5-2 start:
It is important to keep in mind that they had the exact same record through 13 games at this point last year. They got hot in November.
Certain things have improved to this point. They have been better at five-on-five in terms of controlling play. Their defense is clearly better. Their goaltending is better. It is early — we will see how they continue down the path — but there are certain things you can point to that are genuinely improved and will matter.
And then there are things like the power play, which has been a complete liability. Auston Matthews isn’t necessarily producing the way one would expect him to. Even the production aside, I am not sure you can point to a single game this season and say he has been the best player on the ice. That is not to say he has been bad, but I am not sure if he has dominated a game yet, and we are 13 games in.
They have gone along the path of playing at a reasonable playoff pace but not a great playoff pace. There are some things that you would think will bounce back. It is hard to see the power play being this bad the entire season. It is hard to picture Matthews scoring 30 goals this year. If those things normalize, you can see room for optimism in the other parts of their game. But they need to happen. It is easy for us to say the percentages will bounce back. It is another for them to do so.
Petrielli on the team’s slower offensive start than seasons past:
I think a large part of it is that they are adjusting to a new style of play. Over the past week or so, Matthews and Marner stopped dumping the puck in as much. If you go back and watch the first game, it was a big overcorrection. I think Marner was at almost a 70% dump-in rate, which is insanely high for a player of his calibre. They were clearly trying to establish themselves as a forechecking team, and you need your top guys to lead the way and show their commitment to it as well.
It almost seemed like it swung a little bit too far. I think they are trying to find the balance between being the team that controls play, cycles at five-on-five, and plays a bit more of the grind-it-out playoff style while still being able to maintain their offense.
Let’s face it. A number of their depth guys just haven’t done anything. Nick Robertson has barely produced. Pontus Holmberg has been in the top nine pretty much whenever he has played, but he has one assist. It makes it tough. Max Domi got off to a hot start alongside William Nylander, but he doesn’t have a point since moving down to the third line. He centered the third line for half of their games at this point, so he has basically been a non-factor offensively when he is not in the top six.
If you go through it, it is a combination of adjusting and a number of guys—we mentioned Matthews—not producing or finishing on their chances. They need to get comfortable playing in a new style. We can’t expect it to happen in a month, but it will eventually beg the question of whether they have the right players to play that style if they continue to play like this.
Petrielli on whether the Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander unit has been the team’s best line:
Pacioretty deserves full marks so far. I was definitely apprehensive when they signed him in terms of whether he could skate, stay healthy, and produce. You can go down the list of things that were reasonable to question, but what has been most impressive about him is that he has really bought into his role.
He has been extremely physical—more physical than he has been for the majority of his career. He has bought in as a veteran who understands what his role needs to be. He is doing it and sacrificing a little bit offensively in terms of playing in those glorious spots in the high slot and so on. He is making some sacrifices for the team’s greater good and is just trying to win. That is impressive.
Of course, the Matthews-Marner line is their best line. As much as the Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander line has been good, Matthews and Marner take all of the tough matchups and teams key in on them. Everything runs through what they do. Matthew Knies has gone from a rookie on the line who didn’t look out of place to a legitimate contributor on the line who drives play so far. That is a huge step, and it is probably the biggest reason for optimism throughout the entire team, in my opinion. For a team that has been short on offense in the playoffs, having one of their only guys who has actually looked consistently good in the playoffs take a step this year is exciting.
Full marks to the Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander line, but if you look at it, everything flows through what Matthews and Marner are doing, which may or may not be a good thing considering how things have gone for the last eight years.
Petrielli on whether Anthony Stolarz is the “primary” goalie in net at this point:
Depends on how you define primary. I think it is going to be close to a split. They should approach it the way the Bruins previously did with Ullmark and Swayman — two good goalies, and we are going to balance them and try to get the most out of them. They play Boston on Tuesday, and then there is a back-to-back next weekend. One will get two starts, and one will get one.
I don’t know if I would trust Stolarz with 55-60 games, which is kind of what a starter is now. I don’t think he could handle that, plus what is required in the playoffs, but I think they are in a good spot where they don’t need either goalie to do that. They just need them to give the team the 35-40 games, with Hildeby or potentially Matt Murray picking up the odd game if needed.
This was always the path that made the most sense for goaltending. We talked in the summer about signing a veteran hedge, splitting it with Woll, and giving the team some depth in the net. Early results are very positive.
