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Another week of barely any Leafs games. Another week of extended notes.

Let’s get right to it.

Notes

Photo: John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports
Photo: John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports

–  Last season, the Leafs went 22-15-4 at home, the second-worst home record among the eight playoff teams, and they lost their first two home playoff games. So far this season, they are 10-3-0 at SBA. They are the first team in the league to win 10 games at home this season. In the Atlantic, no team has more than six wins at home, and each team has lost at least four already. Craig Berube has mentioned this as a clear priority several times, and so far, SBA has been a tough place to visit.

–  Conversely, the Leafs are 3-3-2 on the road, and two of those losses – against St. Louis and Columbus – were particularly brutal games/efforts. 

–  When Fraser Minten made the Leafs out of training camp last season, he played four games before he was promptly sent back to junior. I thought he very much looked out of his depth in those games, so it was an easy decision.

Through two games so far this season, Minten’s development has been exciting to see, and it goes far beyond the goal and assist he notched for his first two points in the NHL. He’s averaging 15:14 and is giving the Leafs steady, dependable minutes in the league, even though the coaching staff is not making his life easy. He’s starting just 22 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, and he’s won only 38.5 percent of his faceoff; accordingly, he’s winning just 26 percent of the on-ice shot attempts at 5v5, and scoring chances are counted as 4-15 when he’s on the ice.

None of this is sustainable, but the Leafs are throwing Minten to the wolves, and he doesn’t look entirely out of place or uncomfortable. He’s been rewarded with power-play time as a net-front presence, where he’s had several chances he probably should have finished. Before the Leafs’ power-play goal against Vegas, his hang of a backcheck disrupted a 2v1.

–  The other notable rookie debut went to Nikita Grebenkin, who played an eventful first game, running Shea Theodore, missing a breakaway, bullying Alex Pietrangelo, and causing some real havoc in the offensive zone around the net. His size and strength are clear, even though he’s just 21. It felt like he came back to earth in his second game, as he played a team-low 7:12, and the only play that stood out was him running a Utah player at the buzzer as the second period ended, causing a scrum.

Grebenkin is fearless, and he’s going to annoy opponents with the physicality he has displayed so far, but he’s green – multiple times, he’s struggled to get the puck out and turned it over in the neutral zone trying to skate with it instead of getting it in deep. That leads to low ice time and poor results in terms of controlling play. 

–  He’s not a rookie, but I was very curious to see how Steven Lorentz would settle in after a hot start with the team. The production has been relatively non-existent, as he has just two points in his last 10 games and one was an empty netter (he did have a disallowed goal against Washington). Still, he is trending up in terms of responsibility and filling minutes admirably amidst the injuries.

In the last game against Utah, Lorentz played 14:28, his second-highest total of the season. In the previous game, he played 12:54, notably making some big shot blocks. In the Utah game, he threw a couple of big hits as well (and nearly scored early). He knows his role and is sticking to it. There’s nothing flashy about it, but he’s been a dependable everyday player, and that’s an important role.

–  It was noteworthy to see Jake McCabe have some words for Zach Whitecloud after he came out of the box following the hit on Matthew Knies. It looked like he was waiting to let Whitecloud know his thoughts. For the rest of the game after the hit, McCabe was particularly surly and started a few scrums, particularly after Pavel Dorofyev knifed a rebound. The whole team responded, really, but it does feel to some degree as if McCabe has become a real emotional and physical leader on the team.

 In the next game, Morgan Rielly didn’t take too kindly to Logan Cooley clipping Mitch Marner, either. For years, there was real doubt as to whether the Leafs would respond when games turned chippy. They would when certain players were on the ice, but now, it appears a bit more contagious throughout the roster, as it doesn’t matter who is on the ice anymore.

–  You have to feel for Nick Robertson at this point. He hit the post and shot it wide on an empty net against Utah. He was stopped on a 2v1 vs Vegas, and even when he set up McCabe later on a great play, McCabe couldn’t finish to get him the assist. There was also the disallowed goal against Detroit a few weeks ago.

It has been tough, but Robertson is battling out there. He leads the team with nine drawn penalties at five-on-five, and I don’t think anyone can question his effort. He played 16:53 against Utah, the second-highest mark of his career. He did everything but score (though he didn’t get a puck out in the third, which was problematic; he knew it right away).

There have been improvements in his defensive game, which both Berube and Brad Treliving have noted, but one point in 16 games is tough to look at, no matter how we slice it. It’s concerning that he also has just 27 shots on net. He shouldn’t just be producing more; he should also be shooting more. Hopefully, he gets one soon to bump the monkey off his back and settle down. 

–  I can’t remember the team’s schedule ever being this weird. The Leafs play twice a week for two weeks ahead of a December in which they play 15 games in 31 days. Every weekend in December, the Leafs play a back-to-back. It’s entirely bizarre, although I suspect it’s at least partially due to the international tournament in February. After December, the Leafs play just three back-to-backs the rest of the season, and one of them is Pittsburgh-San Jose.

Quotes

Brad Treliving, GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs
Brad Treliving, GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs

“We’re not trying to say, ‘Don’t score.’ But we need to have a foundation of checking. And we need to have a foundation of really valuing the blue paint on both sides and being good around both nets…

There is a focus making sure that our goals against is better, that we’re limiting chances, that we’re checking better. Because ultimately, that’s winning hockey… “You look at Florida, how they came off their Presidents’ Trophy year, there was a change in how they played… 

Yes, you need skill. Yes, you need talent. Yes, you need to create offense. One hundred percent. And we believe in that. But you have to be able to check. If you can’t check … you can’t score your way out of problems. It just doesn’t work. And our guys are embracing that.”

–  Brad Treliving

This is very similar to what I wrote last week regarding building out the team’s defensive play and learning how to create offense within the defensive structure. It’s very clear the Leafs now understand that they aren’t blitzing teams offensively in the playoffs with this group. They have been effectively shut down too many times. The approach and identity is clear. 

“They play a pretty hard game, especially defensively just boxing out and making it hard to get to the net with their layers … They work hard.”

–  Noah Hanifin on the Leafs

This isn’t how opponents have traditionally described the Leafs in this era. Pointing out the “layers” defensively is eye-catching as the Leafs have done a really good job of limiting teams offensively at five-on-five. Their centers have played really well down low – regardless of who has been playing center through all these injuries – and their defense is big and tough to get through. The Leafs are currently fourth in goals against per game. 

“You work on different things that you haven’t touched. We touched a number of different areas from the offensive side of things that we haven’t touched a lot on this year in practice. It has been more on the other side of things. Today, we got to work more on the offensive side of things.”

–  Craig Berube

Building on the Hanifin quote above, this was an interesting tidbit from Berube. The Leafs approach of building through their defensive framework makes complete sense, but they can absolutely do more offensively.

There have been times when it has felt like their only play is to cycle it to the point and get traffic in front. They have too much skill to only do that. They can get far more creative within cycling sequences to get pucks to high-danger areas.

One thing the Leafs haven’t done for years – and a play I used to love – is slap passes to the high slot for long-distance tips. This Connor Brown goal is probably the most memorable example. They want pucks to go to the points, and there is more than enough talent to do it.

Regardless of that particular play concept, it’s worth tracking how they go about expanding their offensive game. They can definitely do more.

Tweets of the Week

It’s important to take these lists with a grain of salt – I don’t think anyone would seriously argue the pairing of Marc Del Gaizo and Luke Schenn has been more effective than Devon Toews and Cale Makar in any capacity whatsoever – but there is no doubt that the Jake McCabe–Chris Tanev pairing has been excellent.

You would have never guessed that Jack Eichel has 32 points in 21 games based on how they shut him down, which is even more impressive knowing Matthews wasn’t even playing to go head-to-head with him at center.

After a career-high eight-goal, 28-point season, McCabe has just five assists so far through 21 games, and he’s impacting games just as much – if not more – by forming this pairing that is erasing top lines on a nightly basis.

Part of what’s driving Artur Akhtyamov’s great early numbers is his two shutouts this season. All of a sudden, the Leafs are starting to look like a goalie factory; Dennis Hildeby is a legitimate goalie prospect who has now gained some NHL experience (and didn’t look out of place), and Joseph Woll is still just 26 and already signed to an extension that kicks in next year. Anthony Stolarz is older but doesn’t have many miles on his body, and he is signed through next season.

Elliotte Friedman has mentioned that other GMs have asked about the Leafs’ young goalies a couple of times. Considering their lack of draft picks – particularly no first-rounder – I am sure this will continue. It will be very interesting to see how the Leafs manage it, but file this under a “good problem to have.”

Add in John Tavares with nine points in eight games, and it’s important to note that while the Leafs are indeed missing a lot of forwards, they also have three forwards in their lineup making over $10 million each. No other team is paying more than one forward over $10 million this season (the Leon Draisaitl extension kicks in next season; presumably, Mikko Rantanen will give Colorado two as well). This is why you pay these guys big money, and they are delivering.

Bobby McMann has really taken advantage of this opportunity (when have we said that before) with some games in which he has really leaped off the page (Washington and Edmonton come to mind). His size and speed get him to pucks and goal-scoring areas, and he can create opportunities out of nothing by winning races, as he did twice against Edmonton.

Particularly exciting: McMann appears capable of complementing either Marner or Nylander, as he has looked excellent alongside both.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Nikita Grebenkin, Toronto Marlies
Photo: Toronto Marlies

1.    I think it should go without saying that the Leafs didn’t really have much choice but to call up Nikita Grebenkin and Fraser Minten, but at the same time, long-term, it’s not beneficial to bury Minten with defensive-zone starts alongside a rookie linemate and to play Grebenkin under eight minutes per game.

The organization is somewhat in survival mode right now, given all their injuries, so there’s no real judgment on the current handling of these matters. This is the winning business, and they are doing what they have to to win.

However, I’m sure we’ll see plenty of calls to keep these players up, and if things continue as they are, it’s not going to help them develop – especially for Minten, who would see less ice time, given he wouldn’t be on the top power-play unit when they are healthy.

The order of players I’d send down from first to last: Grebenkin (not going to play enough), Alex Nylander (because it’s more important to develop Grebenkin), Minten (he can play center, and I’d be curious to see him with NHL quality linemates), and Alex Steeves (he has looked sneaky effective in a role I think he can legitimately fill for the team). 

2.   On that note, I think I have liked this Alex Steeves – Connor Dewar – Steven Lorentz makeshift fourth line. They actually led the Leafs in 5v5 minutes as a line against Utah, and they play a really simple game: forechecking with speed, finishing every hit, and cycling.

Dewar has steadily improved since returning, and his speed has become noticeable and impactful again. Steeves has added an element of play with the puck and has done a good job getting pucks out on his wall. At the very least, he has been an upgrade on Ryan Reaves in those departments.

It has made me excited to eventually see the Dewar—David Kampf—Lorentz line we have discussed before in this space. Dewar has looked comfortable at center and is the closest player the Leafs have had to replacing Kampf’s defensive minutes (including on the penalty kill), but he’s winning just 35 percent of his faceoffs. That’s just not going to cut it.

I’d keep this line together for now and look to insert Kampf there over Steeves – at center – when Kampf returns.

3.   When Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies return, I think I’d like to see the Leafs explore the five-forward power-play unit. Mitch Marner can play the top, and he’s good enough to play defense on the power play. We have seen him do it at 5v5 and 3v3, and it’s not a big ask.

Ultimately, I think Knies has looked really good in front of the net, and John Tavares is clearly their best bumper player. I don’t think there is any planet where Matthews isn’t on the top unit, either. If they put out all five, everyone is properly slotted, and really, there’s minimal risk to trying it.

I’m not going to take a stab at the five-on-five lines because there’s too much volatility in terms of who will be back, for what game, etc.

4.     Unless he has experienced a bad response from his knee, I think I’d like to see Jani Hakanpaa play against Florida. It’s a tough decision, as Simon Benoit has been very good since returning, and Conor Timmins has had a strong season so far. None of the veteran top four are coming out for this game, either. But it’s important to keep Hakanpaa engaged, and I am expecting a very physical game.

I’d be curious to look at Rielly-Hakanpaa and Benoit-OEL. The Rielly-Hakanpaa pairing had the elements of a solid pairing, and OEL has shown well on the right, not to mention Benoit’s success with a lefty playing across from him. He will understand the passing angles and how to position himself alongside another left shot.

The defense has been good as an overall unit, but it’s not about messing with things for the sake of it. I want to see a few other looks, and I’d consider this a more physical unit, making Florida an appropriate team to try it against.

5.   I think Pontus Holmberg has done an admirable job filling in at center, but I have always liked his game best on the wing and would like to see him get a quality run on the wing at some point in this system. Even if Matthews returns and they keep Minten up for a bit longer due to a lack of other options, I’d rather see Holmberg on the wing (potentially even beside Minten) to find out if there’s a full-time winger there who can pitch in at center.

Holmberg hasn’t shown to be a credible enough center other than taking shifts there and not looking out of place (plus, he has improved his faceoff percentage to 51 percent). Otherwise, his shot really hinders him, and he isn’t a playmaker. He isn’t as stout defensively as Kampf to look past all of it, either. His three points in 19 games almost flatter him – his goal was an empty netter, and one assist came from inside his own blue line as Tavares took it and beat Matt Roy cleanly from there.

As a winger, though, Holmberg is a good forechecker and works the walls well. His speed is effective. I’m not sure if he’d have a playoff lineup spot nailed down as a winger, but he definitely shouldn’t as a center.

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