The Maple Leafs head into the Christmas break in a good spot in the standings, all things considered.
They are second in the Atlantic and 10th overall in the league. The team is very much in the hunt to win their division, even if a few rivals below them have recently closed the gap.
Through 35 games last season, the Leafs recorded just one fewer point than this season, and the division was basically out of reach already. However, the circumstances behind the current point total are notably different this time.
Through 35 games last season, William Nylander piled up a ridiculous 50 points (he has 40 so far this season), while Auston Matthews scored 29 goals. They largely outscored their problems, and eventually, it was always going to course correct, given how poorly they were playing defensively.
This season has been a different story, as they have defended well and received high-end goaltending. It has gotten them through losing half their forward group to injury, a lack of secondary scoring, a shoddy power play, and a Matthews injury situation that is becoming trickier to navigate by the day.
While Matthews has been productive when he has played (23 points in 24 games), he has not played to the standard he has set over his career, and he’s missed over 30 percent of their season to date. It’s hard to really overstate how significant a hole it is to remove an elite 1C from an NHL lineup. The domino effect throughout the roster is massive.
Even with the Matthews situation and the fact that management added just one top-nine forward over the offseason, they are playing at a slightly higher point pace than last season, which speaks to the fact that they did make some gains elsewhere on the roster. If Matthews could return to health, there is reason for real optimism with this group.
The big question: Will they be able to add a fully healthy Matthews at any point this season? Secondly, what happens if they can’t?
The Leafs almost certainly have enough talent to make the playoffs comfortably without Matthews, but it’s nearly impossible to picture a deep playoff run without him. They will likely need to go through a loaded Tampa Bay top line and the reigning champion Panthers just to reach the Eastern Conference Finals.
As things stand, the Leafs have been outplayed at five-on-five by large margins without Matthews. They are relying heavily on their goaltending and Mitch Marner and Nylander being the two best players on the ice on a nightly basis. The process hasn’t been good (they have been out-possessed at lottery-level territory), and it’s starting to catch up to them.
The path forward is fairly obvious if Matthews returns to health and finds his form. They should be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline, looking to add at least one quality forward to a team that has routinely struggled to score in the playoffs, and potentially a defenseman, too (if we assume Jani Hakanpaa can’t be counted on).
You could even envision some high-end lineup possibilities if they went the LTIR and deadline-buy route, whereby they wait until playoff time to activate Matthews.
Now, what if the first 30 games are simply how it will be with Matthews this season? Even if he comes back and plays through it but is clearly not himself, what is the game plan? Are they going to sell off a top prospect and buy a notable forward with Matthews playing at much less than 100%?
The Leafs only have a second and third-round draft pick to throw around this year, which would’ve fetched an Alex Wennberg-level player last deadline. They have their 2026 first-rounder to dangle, but are they really selling it if it’s a lost Matthews season? What’s the point unless it’s to acquire a player with term/control?
This is to say nothing of potentially walking Mitch Marner to unrestricted free agency in a lost Matthews season.
There are a lot of positives to be gleaned from this Leafs’ season so far, but this Matthews situation puts a damper on it, and there is no getting around it. Worst of all, it’s clearly not a cut-and-dry injury. This isn’t a broken arm that requires a cast and a simple timeline for recovery. It’s a lingering, will-it-actually-heal-on-its-own type of injury.
The NHL playoffs will likely start on Saturday, April 19, roughly four months away. In February, there is a two-week break for the Four Nations tournament. Unless Matthews can string together weeks of clearly healthy play ahead of the tournament, it’s hard to justify him going at all.
In saying that, there is time for things to mend, but it will be the elephant in the room unless we can see Matthews not only return to game action but look like the Matthews we’ve all come to know. Without Matthews looking like himself, it’s hard to picture a viable path to a successful playoff run.
Notes
– I didn’t think Bobby McMann had that spin pass move — the one he made to set up Max Domi against Buffalo — in him. McMann is capable of a good and powerful net drive off the rush, but so far in his career, he has just 14 assists in 93 games. He hasn’t been much of a playmaker or puck mover in general — which is why I think he struggles to gel with Matthews and Marner — but that move was a nice little development to keep an eye on.
McMann is pacing as nearly a .5-point-per-game player with 13 points in 27 games, and he’s pacing to score 27 goals over 82 games. He has provided legitimate scoring depth, and most notably, he is starting to do it on the third line rather than just alongside William Nylander.
Against Winnipeg, McMann laid a big hit on Adam Lowry, too, driving right through his chest. Lowry is 6’5 and listed at 210 (which seems low); he is not an easy guy to move.
– When Nick Robertson scored for the first time in ages against Tampa Bay, he let out a primal scream. A few weeks and goals later, he scored against Buffalo, and it was pretty casual coming around the net afterward.
There were times during that stretch when he was still working hard and doing a lot of good things but just couldn’t score. Following a six-points-in-three-game run and the Matthews injury, Robertson got moved up alongside Nylander and played well, even if they were held pointless.
When you go on a drought as he did, and eventually a hot streak now as he has, the truth usually lies somewhere in the middle. Like it or not, they need his secondary scoring, so we’ll see how it settles in.
– That was the second fight of the season for Max Domi against Winnipeg, as he attempted to spark the team down 2-0. Last season, he fought six times and totaled 118 penalty minutes in 80 games. This season, it has come down to 28 penalty minutes in 27 games (including those two fights), and that’s a good thing. They need him on the ice producing offense.
Despite missing time and playing hurt for weeks, Domi is ninth on the team in total scoring, and it’s likely only a matter of time until he moves up to seventh. His return helped spark Robertson, as he’s a big upgrade from a skill and production standpoint over the players Robertson has generally been centered by this season.
Domi started the season with six points in six games and was leading the team in scoring at the time. He got hurt, tried to play through it, underperformed, and eventually sat out.
Since returning, Domi has five points in eight games. You can quibble with where he fits when everyone is healthy and it’s playoff time — the fit is a little awkward — but he’s productive and can move up and down the lineup adequately. A team needs that over an 82-game season.
– Matthew Knies has just three points in the last 10 games and is a minus-seven. Since returning from taking a massive hit against Whitecloud, he has been far less physical and productive.
Before the hit, Knies recorded eight goals and 12 points in 19.5 games. He was credited with 44 hits and threw 7.35 hits per 60.
Since returning, he has three goals and seven points in 13 games overall, credited with just 25 hits in that time and 6.2 hits per 60.
Hitting stats can be untrustworthy, but the lack of physicality is clear to see on tape. He’s defaulting to stick checking, and as the F1 on the forecheck, he is trying to anticipate where the puck is going and attempting to jump the play rather than getting in and finishing whoever is retrieving the puck, trying to jar it loose in the process.
It’s understandable that a player returning from a head injury would be less physical, but a less physical Knies isn’t much of a difference-maker. With Matthews out, it’s only magnified.
– Morgan Rielly’s minus-nine rating is an eyesore on a defense whose next worst regular is Simon Benoit at plus-four, but it’s mainly due to empty-net goals against. With the goalie pulled, Rielly has been on for two goals for and nine against.
It’s fair to argue whether Rielly should be the defenseman on the ice with the net empty, but he still leads their defense in scoring. Oliver Ekman-Larsson isn’t providing much of anything offensively at the moment, and a good chunk of those goals have nothing to do with him. At five-on-five play, Rielly is up one (24 goals for vs. 23 against). They need more from him, but the plus-minus next to his name is a little unfair/misleading.
– I know the stats suggest players should shoot for the empty net on their side of center, but part of what makes it successful is whether or not there is a clean look. There’s a difference between missing a clean look and forcing it under duress because the player wants the goal anyway.
It feels like the Leafs ice the puck a ton when defending 6v5 situations because players are trying to pad their stats. There’s no real reason for Max Pacioretty not to gain center against the Sabres. In the game before against the Stars, Mitch Marner sent a backhand up the middle that went for icing instead of banking it off the wall and out. The Stars won the ensuing faceoff and then scored.
This team has been doing it for years now. It’s okay to simply get the puck out rather than gifting the opposition a free offensive-zone faceoff.
Quotes
“We need to get back to our identity a little bit more.
“I think we’ve gotten away from it lately, in my opinion, on the checking side of things. We have to get back to that where we are tight all over and are not giving up much. I find we are giving a little bit too much up right now and are a little loose at times.
“The other thing is puck management.”
– Craig Berube
The Leafs are 18th in goals against per game so far in the month of December, and it’s not just goaltending coming back down to earth coupled with the Anthony Stolarz injury. They are tied for 26th with two other teams in shots against per game in the month and are starting to give up too many odd-man rushes. They want to maintain this tight defensive identity, and it’s even more imperative when the status of Matthews is unknown.
“It was a busy day, a lot of emotions. I tried to keep them in check for the most part, because obviously there’s a game to play. But I was able to take a moment there in warmups and during the anthem and just kind of look around and appreciate the long journey that it’s been and think of all the people who helped me get here.
“After that, I just tried to immerse myself in the game. And thankfully the team played great in front of me tonight. So super happy to get the win.”
– Matt Murray after his first NHL game in 628 games
This is a great story for Matt Murray and the Leafs. I am not going to sit here and pretend I was full of confidence in him as the game went along, but he battled through it, made a couple of good to really good saves, and the hope is that he settles in after what was likely a bit of a rollercoaster for him on and off the ice.
“It’s a tough one to swallow, these last couple going into the break. We know how important every game, every point is, and it’s frustrating when we did not come with more over these last two.”
– John Tavares, after the Leafs lost their second straight heading into the Christmas mini-break
After the break, the Leafs’ first three opponents are three teams they lost to the last time they faced off — Detroit, Washington, and the Islanders. We have no idea if Matthews is playing, they are on a bit of a skid, and they seemingly struggle to collect points against the Red Wings and Islanders over the past few seasons. This feels like a pretty big run of games coming up.
5 Things I Think I’d Do
1. I think the forward lines depend on what Matthew Knies the Leafs are getting.
If it’s physical, imposing-his-will Knies, they can slot him with Tavares and Marner for a legitimate top line. If it’s the present version, I’d be far more likely to keep the Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander line together and pair up McMann – Domi – Marner while trying to build Knies back up in softer matchups with Robertson.
At this point, McMann has just one fewer even-strength goal than Knies and two fewer even-strength points overall, despite playing six fewer games and over a minute and a half less per game at even strength. Knies is currently playing on the top line, the top power-play unit, and is getting regular penalty-killing time.
Knies is a good player, but they are probably asking a bit too much of him right now overall.
2. I don’t know how you could watch the Steven Lorentz – Pontus Holmberg – Connor Dewar line and want to break it up in favour of inserting Ryan Reaves. They generated a ton of zone time, crashed the net well (Dewar alone had five shots on net against Winnipeg), and are all capable of holding onto the puck on the walls and making a play, to say nothing of their defensive competence.
In the second half of last season, I had a lot of time for what Reaves was providing. The fourth line was legitimately solid. Reaves was physical, and he could provide a spark with his play. So far this season, he hasn’t fought, and it’s partly because he hasn’t been physical enough to attract an opponent’s attention. The only time someone probably should have fought Reaves after a hit he threw was the incident leading to the major and a five-game suspension.
It’s not that Dewar and Holmberg have been productive — they clearly haven’t been — but they can both move the puck up ice and cycle it well in the offensive zone, giving them the possibility of a fourth line that at least flips play up ice and can do some defensive lifting to free up the top offensive players.
3. I think I’m quite surprised at the Leafs’ reluctance to pair up Chris Tanev and Morgan Rielly. They are a natural stylistic fit and were good in their minutes together. It was a solid pairing. Even if it wasn’t specifically a shutdown pairing, it was good in a head-to-head matchup, especially with the Matthews line in front of them.
More to the point, it spread out the Leafs’ two best defensemen (McCabe and Tanev) across two pairings. The OEL-Tanev pairing is getting hemmed in regularly. I know we’ve discussed this before, but I still don’t know what Leafs brass is seeing here.
The Leafs are burying OEL-Tanev (just 22 percent offensive zone starts!), and the pairing is getting buried as a result. This isn’t a top-loaded defense; it’s made up of four solid defensemen who need to divide and conquer. If they pair up their two best in McCabe-Tanev, they don’t have enough depth elsewhere.
The team’s best stretch of play in terms of possession was easily when Rielly-Tanev were paired up, followed by OEL-McCabe. There are other factors at play, but they haven’t really come close to it since.
4. I also think I’d give Connor Timmins a look on the second power-play unit as the QB over Oliver Ekman-Larsson. We’re 35 games into the season, and OEL has played all of them while averaging 1:53 per game on the power play. He has zero power-play points, which is hard to do.
The past few weeks have been particularly poor for OEL — filled with errant breakout passes and in-zone passes — and he has just seven shots on net on the power play so far. It just hasn’t been good enough, and he’s also playing too much in general (currently over 21 minutes per game on the season).
Last season in Florida, OEL showed where he should slot in the lineup: as a fifth defenseman on a Cup contender. The Leafs need him in the top four, and it’s not tiring to play on the power play, but I’m not sure they need to up his minutes in general when he’s not actually providing anything on the power play and his five-on-five play is beginning to decline.
I think Timmins is just as capable of not producing, and while I’m not sure he’s any kind of solution, OEL clearly hasn’t been so far.
5. I think this is a really pivotal stretch for Joseph Woll if he wants to be the guy this year. Anthony Stolarz excelled when Woll went down, and now Woll is taking the opportunity to run with it and prove the same.
So far, it hasn’t been good enough. Woll was excellent against Dallas, and then they set him up with the second half of a back-to-back game to try to give the team the chance to sweep four points. He couldn’t keep the team in the game vs. NYI.
Against Winnipeg, Woll was a similar story, but it was only accentuated by Connor Hellebuyck playing well at the other end (no shame there; he’s the best goalie in the league).
The Leafs play almost every other night for about five weeks once they return from the break. Woll will get in plenty of games, and I’d be pushing starts on him within reason (at least 60 percent of the games), with Matt Murray spelling him as needed.
Last but not least, I wanted to end by wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
