The Toronto Maple Leafs’ mid-January blues continued as the team dropped a third straight game, this time to the Dallas Stars at home by a 4-1 margin.
This game got away from the Leafs. A strong start and an opportunity to build a solid lead gave way to a Dallas advantage by the end of the second period. Ultimately, a very poor start to the third led to another multi-goal defeat. The Leafs weren’t shut out this time but were booed off the Scotiabank Arena ice again. The team continues to be in search of answers.
Your game in 10:
1. After a dismal performance on Saturday night, it seemed important for the Leafs to get off to a stronger start to this game against a superior opponent. They managed to accomplish that goal tonight.
The opening couple minutes of the game were quiet, as the two teams felt each other out. But then the Leafs struck, scoring on their first opportunity of the game (the first opportunity for either team).
A cycle play broke down for the Leafs, but Mitch Marner hustled to check back above the puck and force it back deeper into the Dallas zone, where Auston Matthews applied pressure and forced a blown clearance back to Marner.
After drawing two defenders in, Marner looked off new linemate Steven Lorentz — not for the last time in the game — and slid it over to Matthews on the outside of the left circle, where the captain skated into the open space and ripped it over the near-side shoulder of Jake Oettinger. A vintage shot from #34 gave Toronto a fast start to the game.
Matthews 15th of the Season vs Stars courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph. pic.twitter.com/zsKfTmbzmH
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) January 15, 2025
2. Less than a minute later, Sam Steel was whistled for a penalty for tripping Max Domi, and the Leafs were handed an opportunity to build a multi-goal early lead. In hindsight, this was one of the turning points of the game. With so much focus on the power play after recent failures and top-unit tweaks, the Leafs did at least put together a decent-looking man advantage, one that gained and held the zone and created several dangerous looks.
The five-forward top unit won the opening faceoff and held possession for a solid minute, creating two quality looks for William Nylander from the right circle, in addition to a point shot from Marner into Knies’ dangerous screen/tip. The second unit came on, and Morgan Rielly had a look that hit iron, one of a couple of times the Leafs rang the post on the PP.
From a process standpoint, it was a good crack at it and felt like something the Leafs should be able to sustain energy with. PP failures have been such a momentum-killer in recent games, and while it is a low bar, this power-play was not a setback in this regard.
3. The Stars didn’t even have a shot until eight minutes into the game, but right after getting their first, they tied the game.
It was a relatively harmless entry and an innocuous shot, as Steel lobbed one on net. Joseph Woll spilled out far too juicy of a rebound for the calibre of shot, and Logan Stankoven was camped on the doorstep. Some combination of Conor Timmins‘ attempted clearance and Stankoven’s stick put the rebound right back on Woll, and it squibbed through the Leafs goalie at point-blank range before Stankoven finished it off.
A soft goal on Woll reset the game, and after the Leafs couldn’t blow the game open early, it now felt like it would be a grind at five-on-five from here on out against a stingy Stars team.
4. The Stars’ goal went straight to their legs, and the ice tilted in Dallas’ favour. Nick Robertson turned a puck over right into the slot in his own end and forced Woll to make a big save not long after the goal. By my count, 11 of the next 12 shots in the game went to Dallas after the Leafs opened the game by outshooting the Stars 4-0 (not including the two posts).
John Tavares was called for a hooking penalty late in the first period, giving Dallas their first power play opportunity of the game, and this was another solid kill for the Leafs. David Kämpf had a 2v1 opportunity with Marner, but his pass did not give Marner much of a chance. Dallas didn’t create much in terms of quality looks, and the time elapsed on the PP just before the end of the first period.
The teams headed to the intermission deadlocked at one, but Dallas was coming on strong after a sluggish start. After looking reasonably threatening to start the game, the Leafs settled back into generating not enough at five-on-five (six shots on goal, .24 xG at evens).
5. The two teams traded a couple of chances in the first 10 minutes of the middle frame. Matt Duchene rang the iron early on as Dallas continued pressing. The Leafs created one counter opportunity for Marner on a 2v1 rush chance in which he looked off Lorentz and couldn’t bury himself.
Tavares hit a post on a rebound try off a Knies shot (the Leafs were up to four posts or crossbars at that point), and Knies had a Grade-A look on a puck that popped out in front of the net. He had the puck on his stick with his back to goal and Oettinger down and out, but he didn’t seem aware of the empty net and didn’t shoot — a big missed opportunity in the context of the game.
Woll made a big save on a Jamie Benn 2v1 at the other end, keeping it at a 1-1 game.
6. The other turning point of this game, after the early power play that the Maple Leafs couldn’t cash in, was a controversial penalty on Tavares just past the midway point of the second period. Toronto’s veteran center was called for an extremely soft slash in the neutral zone, a call that Craig Berube vehemently disagreed with after the game.
That decision put the Stars on the PP, their second chance of the night, and they scored on this one. The kill continued to look solid in the first half of the penalty; the Leafs were blocking lanes well and protecting the dangerous areas. But once Dallas’ second unit came out, a shot from up high by Thomas Harley appeared double-deflected by a stacked screen in front, first hitting Logan Stankoven and then Mavrik Bourque before ricocheting by Woll. There wasn’t anything the Leafs’ netminder could do about this one, but an officiating faux pas and some PK misfortune placed the Leafs in a hole against a strong defensive team.
7. The rest of the second period was reasonably okay for the Leafs, who had the better of the 5v5 play in the frame. Jason Robertson did get a look for the Stars after stealing the puck from Connor Dewar, but there were individual chances for Knies and Philippe Myers late in the period. Myers, in particular, was highly active offensively and physically in the opening 40 minutes, playing 13.5 minutes through two periods with three shots on goal and three hits. It’s as confident as he’s looked in a Leafs jersey, as he seems to be finding a rhythm now during this run of eight appearances since the holiday break.
The Leafs shouldn’t have been in panic mode at 2-1 down through 40 minutes, given the flow of play and the manner in which they conceded, but they didn’t get out of the middle frame cleanly. Dallas drew a penalty in the waning moments of the period.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson took a bad holding penalty after he was beaten by Colin Blackwell off the rush in the final 30 seconds; OEL got beat, and while Rielly was in a position to cover for him, OEL grabbed on anyway. It was an untimely infraction, and it proved costly.
8. On the early third period Stars power play. Matt Duchene posted up on the doorstep of the net, and Wyatt Johnston sent the puck from the wing down to Duchene, who an overextended Simon Benoit afforded too much space in front. Duchened stepped in with the freedom to make a quick between-the-legs move and flip the puck over the shoulder of Woll into the far side of the net.
A soft penalty call, a bad bounce on the PK, a soft goal on Woll, and a lapse on the PK had the Leafs trailing by two early in the third, and the response from there was quite disappointing. The team seemed to deflate.
This didn’t use to be an insurmountable hole for the Leafs against almost any (regular-season) opponent with their ability to often find another gear offensively, but two-goal deficits have felt unconquerable for Toronto of late.
9. As do three-goal deficits. The Stars all but put the game away just 1:48 later.
A messy defensive zone sequence saw Max Domi leave Duchene and follow the puck up the wall alongside Rielly. Jason Robertson slipped it through both Leafs and found Duchene all alone in the circle, where he quickly spun and fired it through a partial screen in front of Woll to make the game 4-1 for Dallas. As his latest goal-less drought hits 12 games, those defensive mistakes by Domi become more difficult to overlook.
The remainder of the contest was simply a case of the Leafs going through the motions. The Leafs got one more power play opportunity, but nothing much came of it besides some sloppy turnovers by the top unit. Marc Savard called a timeout to draw something up on the whiteboard and keep the top unit out for the full two minutes in hopes of making a game of it, but all that was accomplished off the ensuing faceoff was a one-timer by Marner from the blue line.
Down three, so much of what the Leafs generated late on were one-and-done opportunities: an entry, one shot, either saved or deflected/wide, and then a quick clear by Dallas. There were not many sustained cycles and very little offensive activity that was genuinely threatening. It was a night when the offense needed to bail out Woll for a soft goal and the team for a bad break on the Tavares call/ensuing PK, but five high-danger chances in total at five-on-five over the 60 minutes just weren’t going to cut it against the Stars and Oettinger.
Keeping McMann on L3, moving Knies down a line (until they were behind in the game), elevating Lorentz into the top six while sitting Pacioretty and playing Reaves (?) did not move the needle enough offensively in this one. The only Leaf goal came off of a bit of magic by Matthews and Marner. There were some missed opportunities/bad breaks in the first 40 minutes with the posts and the Knies empty net, but it wasn’t enough overall.
10. Craig Berube decided to pull his goalie with roughly 1:45 to play, an interesting decision after not bothering to pull his goalie with the team down 3-0 to Vancouver on Saturday. Maybe it was to practice 6-on-5 situations (the Leafs have been outscored 13-2 in goalie-out situations) or try to get some better offensive vibes going ahead of Thursday’s game against New Jersey, but that late of a pull with a three-goal deficit clearly wasn’t going to change the course of the game.
The Leafs didn’t give up an ENG or score a goal (or come all that close). They skated around and then headed off the ice to a chorus of boos for the second consecutive game. They were certainly closer in this game than they were against Vancouver on Saturday, but it still was not close to good enough. The fans, at least, are smart enough to figure that out.
In net, the only other time Woll has lost back-to-back starts this season came just before Christmas when he was second-best to Ilya Sorokin and Connor Hellebuyck in losses to NYI (five goals against) and Winnipeg (four goals against). He responded with five straight wins and a .934 save percentage over that next stretch. The Leafs will need a similar calibre of response with some more tough competition coming up on the schedule.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Game Flow: 5v5 Heat Map
