The Maple Leafs couldn’t capitalize on their command over the possession, shots, and scoring chances throughout this game.
They also lost the goaltending battle decisively in a 5-1 loss to the Blue Jackets, who continued to have Toronto’s number (four Columbus wins in the last five meetings, all with five or more goals scored by the Jackets).
Most concerning to the Leafs is the status of Matthew Knies, who left the game late in the second period with an upper-body injury.
Your game in 10:
1. It was a first period with plenty of positives from the Leafs‘ perspective, except for the scoreboard part.
Ryan Reaves finally found a willing dance partner, and while it looked like he might go down quickly after an early connection by Mathieu Olivier, Reaves recovered and landed a few of his own in a flurry of back-and-forth punches. It noticeably fired up the Leafs‘ bench (but didn’t receive enough of a reception from the crowd for Auston Matthews‘ liking).
"ROCK 'EM SOCK 'EM!"
REAVES VS OLIVIER HEAVYWEIGHT TILT courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph pic.twitter.com/IuezqtrE3y
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) January 23, 2025
Shots were 15-7 in the opening 20 as the Leafs dictated play and created a flurry of quality scoring chances/grade-A looks. William Nylander escaped on yet another breakaway (he went glove side this time to no avail), Reaves broke in alone but was stick-checked by Elvis Merzlikins, Matthew Knies set up chances in front for Mitch Marner (at five-on-five) and Conor Timmins (at four-on-four) from behind the net, Bobby McMann fired a nice shot-for-rebound off the rush that nearly bounced in off of Pontus Holmberg, and Marner went on a partial breakaway.
Merzlikins was dialed in early and often, and the Leafs were not bearing down on their chances. When this is the case, we all know how it usually goes once there is a break the other way.
2. Four for its last seven opportunities entering the game, the Leafs’ power play had a couple of chances in the first period to grab the team the first lead of the night and change the game’s complexion.
In all three of its opportunities tonight, they were too content to spend time on the perimeter and/or launch shots from near the boards. When they tried to funnel some pucks into the net-front area from up top on their second PP opportunity in the first period, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Morgan Rielly had three consecutive shots blocked (Max Domi also had one blocked on the first power play opportunity before turning two pucks over — Minten technically turned over the second one, but it was really on Domi for putting him in a terrible spot on the handoff inside the line).
Getting shots through was a challenge for the Leafs all night, as the Blue Jackets were credited with 25 blocked shots in total.
Then, at the tail end of the second power-play opportunity, the Leafs conceded a shorthanded goal, their fifth of the season (tied for fourth-most in the league).
3. Regarding said shorthanded goal — sure, we can second-guess Jake McCabe‘s decision to cut across the ice to pressure the puck, and we can question Morgan Rielly’s read-and-react to the situation developing in front of him. Rielly did not shade to the other side of the ice when McCabe slashed across until it was quite late, leaving Adam Fantilli with a lot of space down the right, with a healthy distance for Rielly to cover in order to angle him off.
All that nitpicking wouldn’t have been considered for a second if the Leafs received a save that should be routine for an NHL goaltender. The shot came from just inside the faceoff dot and was hardly labeled for the top corner when it deflected off of Dennis Hildeby‘s arm and beat him short-side. There was no passing threat on the play. It’s hard for a 6’7 goalie to look much smaller in the net than this.
None of the other goals were explicitly on Hildeby in the same way as the 1-0 goal, but if you were watching him tend the net and feeling comfortable at any point, you’re a much more relaxed onlooker than I. Hildeby was off his angle and swimming in the net quite a bit throughout the night. Many shots felt like an adventure for him.
4. It will sound like 20/20 hindsight armchair GM’ing to suggest Hildeby shouldn’t have started this game or Matt Murray should’ve been up instead, but it’s something Anthony Petrielli has been sensibly pointing out in his notebook for a couple of weeks now: Hildeby is 23 years old — very young by NHL goaltending standards — with limited pro experience. He should be playing more frequently, accruing reps, and building confidence at the lower level over playing once every two weeks in the NHL. Fourteen games played by late January isn’t enough for his development.
To be clear, Murray struggled in his brief stint with the big club, and given that Hildeby played more hockey at both levels last season, it was sensible for team brass to infer that Murray needed more reps with the Marlies after such a long injury layoff. Murray is also waiver-eligible once he accrues enough games/days on the NHL roster. But coming off of Hildeby’s loss to Vancouver and with Murray earning a couple of shutouts recently, we were already at the point where the switch made sense.
Having Hildeby post a .878 save percentage while playing sparingly at the NHL level makes little sense. With the schedule lightening up in the next few weeks and a run of Ottawa-Minnesota-Edmonton coming up (all Woll starts), Hildeby isn’t getting into a game until Feb. 4 (Calgary) or Feb. 6 (Seattle) at the earliest, even if you wanted/trusted him to play another one right now.
5. Early in the second period, another power-play opportunity presented itself after Knies drew a call battling hard in front, and the Leafs again split the power-play time evenly between the units.
Knies made a decent move to cut inside and try a jam play, Marner fanned on a puck, and Matthews saw his one-timer from distance blocked. The second unit struggled to get pucks off the perimeter and into the productive areas of the ice, and the Leafs left with just one shot on goal from this power play.
Around the midway point, the Leafs made a nice push at five-on-five, starting with the top line followed by the third line, as they put pucks to the net with traffic, recovered them, and continued to exert pressure. It ended in a quality scoring chance for Domi that went through Merzlikins but somehow popped over the crossbar and into the netting.
Domi is still stuck on just three goals this season; all were scored in a three-game span sandwiched between 22-game and 15-game (and counting) goalless slumps.
6. The top line had two more good looks just before the Blue Jackets blew this game open with two quick goals inside 1:41 — one for Matthews in the slot and one for Matthews at the side of the net. The problems started when the line got stuck on the ice for too long, as the puck was in the back of the Leafs’ net 1:30 into their shift.
On the 2-0 goal by James van Riemsdyk, if we wanted to nitpick it, all five Leaf skaters could’ve played this a little better in some shape or form, from Marner’s initial effort in the puck battle on the wall and then shutting off, to the pass through Timmins, to McCabe’s attempt at defending the down-low 2v1, to Knies recognizing the back-post threat (JVR) a little late. But as the centerman supporting the initial puck battle on the wall, Matthews more or less took himself out of the play, positionally and competitively speaking. It was obvious all three forwards were defending tired, but asking Matthews to dig in a little more on this play is fair to expect.
Overall, coming up on the 50-game mark, the top line has been too leaky in their own zone at five-on-five for the Leafs to yield the full fruits of their best LWer, best C, and best RWer playing on a line together. It’s been a little bit of a hit-and-miss situation where the “hits,” or the good games (like the one vs. TB), are really, really good — arguably as good as the line has ever looked — but the misses are a little too frequent in terms of what they’re giving up the other way.
Consider these numbers:
| Knies-Matthews-Marner | 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
|---|---|---|
| Shared Ice Time (5v5) | 406:04 | 293:19 |
| 5v5 Goal Differential | 24-12 (+12) | 19-16 (+3) |
| Goals For/60 (5v5) | 3.55 | 3.89 |
| Goals Against/60 (5v5) | 1.77 | 3.27 |
It’s a big increase in goals against at five-on-five, especially considering they’ve spent 127 of those minutes on the ice with Chris Tanev.
7. The fourth line followed up the goal against with a good, heavy, hard-working offensive zone shift, but when the Max Domi – Fraser Minten – Nick Robertson line came over the boards with the Morgan Rielly – Jake McCabe pairing, a few missed opportunities to get the puck out followed by some standing around defensively led to a 3-0 goal.
Once Rielly blocked the initial pass across and seemed to lose the puck in his feet, everyone but McCabe sort of watched on and stopped battling. The Leafs needed to be more competitive in front of their own net here.
The third line deserved a goal on the earlier Domi chance, but they’ve now conceded at five-on-five in two consecutive since the Domi – Minten – Robertson line was formed. It’s unsurprisingly hard to trust them for even the odd shift outside of the most sheltered situations/matchups. They conceded a goal to the Point line + Hedman pairing against Tampa and then against the Fantilli line + Werenski pair in this game.
Notably, after four points in his first five NHL games, Minten is without a point in eight games (nine shots on goal) and has been outscored 4-0 at even-strength while sitting well below even in shot attempt share.
There has been one key injury at center to John Tavares, and with Domi’s struggles down the middle this season, the Leafs are currently running a rookie who needs more time in the AHL at 3C, Pontus Holmberg at 2C, and have called up an AHL rookie centerman in Jacob Quillan earlier today. The need for an additional top-nine-quality NHL center could not be any more clear.
8. The Matthew Knies injury departure felt like even more of a gut punch knowing he was in the midst of another really strong performance tonight. His forechecking and work behind the net created a couple of quality scoring chances in the first period. He was a huge handful in front of the net for Sean Kuraly in the second period, leading to a drawn penalty. He set up Matthews for a good look in the second period before engaging in a scrum afterward. He was in the process of finishing one of several hits in the game when he took the awkward fall to the ice.
When you hear “upper-body,” and you know Knies has two confirmed concussions in the league already (one courtesy of Sam Bennett in the 2023 playoffs, the other on the hit by Zach Whitecloud vs. Vegas this past November), it naturally engenders heightened concern. But it could be the shoulder or the collarbone (or any number of things) based on the collision/fall. In addition to potential time on the shelf, the big concern is that Knies was tentative when he returned from his last injury and was back to looking confident and physically assertive again from game to game.
9. The Leafs ran Robertson with the top line for a shift to start the third period before loading up with Nyladner, Matthews, and Marner. OEL tried to spark the team with a nice open-ice hit on Werenski on that shift, and a few seconds later — after Domi hopped on for Matthews — Domi set up Nylander for a good look in the slot turned away by Merzlikins.
That was the Leafs’ last real chance back into the game. Despite doubling the Blue Jackets in offensive-zone possession time from start to finish, it was more or less curtains five minutes and change into the third period.
The 4-0 goal wasn’t the only time in this game when Conor Timmins was stripped of a puck too easily by a forechecker (Mikael Pyyhtia, in this case) when going back to retrieve the puck. Luca Del Bel Belluz then surprised Hildeby with a quick wrap-around jam play.
Timmins has to become more solid and protective of the puck in those situations, or he will remain in the Timothy Liljegren-style, not-a-serious-option-at-playoff-time bucket. Notably, in his last 19 games, the Leafs have been outscored 17-8 at even strength with Timmins on the ice, and he only has two points to his name in that span.
From there, the Leafs did at least manage to break the shutout on a Matthews goal courtesy of a deserved primary assist for Nylander, who led the forward group in ice time by a lot (23 minutes, with the next highest being Marner’s 20:34).
Matthews 20th of the Season vs Blue Jackets courtesy of @Bonsie1951 and @Jim_Ralph pic.twitter.com/Lqeqe0q8Wz
— Maple Leafs Hotstove (@LeafsNews) January 23, 2025
10. Just when the Leafs seemed to be getting healthy for a brief moment, Tavares (IR), Dewar (day-to-day, fwiw), Pacioretty (IR), and now potentially Knies all hit the injured list up front.
Assuming Dewar isn’t an option yet and Knies is out, it could make an Alex Steeves recall a sensible move (he scored twice tonight for the Marlies, fwiw). Bringing up Quillan made some sense as a reward when they wanted an extra body around; Quillan is waiver exempt, and Steeves isn’t, so while Steeves has cleared waivers with some active-roster days/games to burn still before he’s eligible for waivers again, it didn’t make much sense to burn those days if he was going to practice and sit in the press box as an extra. If Steeves is going to play, it obviously makes a lot more sense to bring him up.
As for the top of the lineup, if Knies is out, the options are limited. Loading up, as they briefly experimented with earlier this season, can’t happen anything but situationally without Tavares in the lineup. Their options at LW are shifting up McMann (who is probably best left with Nylander to keep the second line afloat), Domi, Robertson, or maybe Holmberg. Moving Domi up (not on the merits but more due to the lack of options) and bumping Lorentz up onto L3, with either Quillan or Steeves entering the fourth line, might be the move for Saturday vs. Ottawa, assuming both Dewar and Knies are out.
Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts
Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts
