Similar to the shootout losses against the Sharks last season, the Maple Leafs let a very winnable game slip away in this 3-2 overtime loss to San Jose.

In a battle between two of the worst possession teams in the league based on the publicly available metrics, the Leafs flipped the script they’ve followed to win many games under Craig Berube by actually controlling (slightly) more of the possession, particularly in the second period, while giving up more high-danger looks, per Natural Stat Trick.

To open the game, the Sharks quickly drew a penalty against Simon Benoit for tripping. Fortunately, the penalty kill — despite the Sharks getting a few passes through the seams — remains one of the most reliable parts of this team.

After settling into the game, the Leafs started to get down to work on the cycle, with multiple extended shifts in the offensive zone thanks to strong work on the forecheck and aggressive play at the Sharks’ line to keep the puck in the zone. The Leafs didn’t generate a ton of good chances with that possession time, but when they did, Alex Nedeljkovic was up to the challenge.

Meanwhile, the Sharks’ chances came primarily from capitalizing on turnovers for quick-strike opportunities, such as a Macklin Celebrini chance off a Max Domi turnover, or Ty Dellandrea breaking free and drawing a penalty shot off Morgan Rielly. Dennis Hildeby matched his counterpart at the other end and stood tall.

The Leafs then broke through first late in the first period. William Nylander, working with new linemates on the “third” line, looked a lot more like his normal puck-dominant self, circling the zone and scanning the ice for an opportunity. After shaking a defender, he turned back behind the net to set up Jake McCabe for a one-timer that was deflected in front by Dakota Joshua before bouncing off old friend Timothy Liljegren and into the back of the net.

To open the second period, the Leafs followed a similar script of looking asleep at the wheel to start off before waking up and tilting the ice in their favour. Midway through the middle frame, the shots were 11-3 for Toronto, and it really felt like they were in control of the game to that point if they could only find some cushion for their lead. Hildeby still needed to be sharp at times when the Sharks threatened in transition, but sharp he was.

At long last, the Leafs did something with the man-advantage. The top unit finally broke through, as Nylander patiently/deceptively stared down Tavares in the bumper, drew in multiple defenders, and waited for the seam to open up to Matthews for the one-timer in tight at the back door.

The most disappointing part of the night came after the Leafs took the two-goal lead and should’ve been in full control of the game. They immediately conceded a goal against. With chances to put the game to bed, they didn’t register a shot on their third-period power play, and they wasted point-blank chances (Steven Lorentz and Matthew Knies, to name names) by seeking the fancy play/extra pass. Critically, they blew clearance opportunities late on. It wasn’t a professional close-out effort with the lead.

The concern about the new Cowan-Tavares-Robertson line was that they might get pulled apart defensively, and those concerns weren’t alleviated with a goal against immediately after the Leafs’ 2-0 tally, as Dmitry Orlov stepped in off the point unmarked and beat Hildeby with a good shot.

After the 2-1 goal breathed new life into the Sharks, San Jose started to own more of the puck, which carried over into the final frame. They nearly tied it in with under five seconds to go in the second, after a sloppy Benoit turnover — he took a big step down from his nice game vs. Tampa — led to a Kurashev one-timer that Hildeby got the glove on as he shot across the crease to make a spectacular stop.

Early in the third period, Oliver Ekman-Larsson left the game with a lower-body injury (more on that later), which jumbled the defense pairings and certainly didn’t help matters.

Every Leaf fan was bracing for a Ryan Reaves goal in this one, and it nearly came. As Reaves was driving the net, he gained positioning on Benoit, and after a pass was sent in front, it deflected off Benoit and in. Thankfully, the play was correctly reviewed as offside after a successful challenge by Berube.

Despite the break, the Leafs found a way to blow it anyway. With the net empty and the third line out for the Leafs, inexplicably, Nylander and Roy failed to clear the zone with the puck at the blue line; they both borderline whiffed on the puck. Moments later, the puck circled back to John Klingberg at the point, where he sent a really well-placed shot through traffic to tie the game up. There’s not much to say here; Nylander or Roy has to get this puck out, full stop.

In overtime, toward the end of his shift, a tired Auston Matthews tried to take on Alex Wennberg 1v1 and was easily stripped, then didn’t have the gas in the tank to hustle back to prevent the 2v1 chance. Hildeby did his best, getting across to make a great stop on the one-timer, but Domi didn’t tie up Wennberg, who scrambled the rebound over the line.

Post-Game Notes

– Despite the Leafs controlling just over 50% of the shot attempts, the Sharks controlled 65% of the high-danger chances and 66% of the expected goals. The Leafs were a little leakier in transition and turnover-prone than in recent games, but the most disappointing part was their attention to detail once up 2-0, in stark contrast to their play with the lead against Tampa. They got scored on immediately after a goal. They then should’ve, or easily could’ve, been scored on right at the end of a period to make it 2-2. Bailed out by an offside challenge, they didn’t wake up, knuckle down, and make hard plays on the puck when up one goal with under two minutes to play. Their approach to putting the game to bed was unserious, from passing up point-blank looks to not registering a shot on the power play. The OT play was lackadaisical as well. The Leafs aren’t in a position right now to be careless with a lead, to take anything for granted, or to throw away any points; maybe you could shoulder shrug it off at times in previous regular seasons, but not right now.

– Now, a dropped point is peanuts compared to the potential magnitude of the pending Oliver Ekman-Larsson news. On a weird play behind the net, a Sharks skater fell onto OEL’s leg, and he was unable to put any weight on it as he was taken to the locker room. OEL has been a rock for the Leafs, averaging nearly 21 minutes, moving pucks cleanly on a blue line that really needs that, physically engaged almost every night, and already eclipsing 20 points off the blue line, all while playing his offside.

It’s a huge loss regardless of the circumstances, but Brandon Carlo underwent surgery and will miss another 3-4 weeks. Chris Tanev is skating again in a non-contact jersey, but a timeline for ramping up to contact practices and then game action is still unknown. Don’t forget Dakota Mermis, who would be playing the right side on the third pair right now, too, if it wasn’t for a dirty knee-on-knee hit in Monday’s contest against Tampa. Henry Thrun has some NHL experience and is getting his legs underneath him now, and they do have an highly experienced veteran with a right shot in Matt Benning on the farm, but the Leafs’ entire right side might be out of commission. That’s really tough for any team to cope with.

– With the Joshua-Roy-Nylander and Lorentz-Laughton-Jarnkrok lines on the ice, the Leafs were up 21-13 in shot attempts, 11-5 in shots, and owned nearly 80% of the expected goals at five-on-five (1-0 in actual goals, courtesy of the Roy-Nylander line). With the Tavares and Matthews lines on the ice, the Sharks were up 23-19 in shot attempts, 14-9 in shots, and over 80% in expected goals (1-0 in actual goals).

Notably, Easton Cowan finished at just over 10 minutes in ice time. It was worth a look at Cowan-Tavares-Robertson (who conceded the only SJ goal at 5v5), but it seems safe to assume that Berube will return to Nylander next to Tavares once Bobby McMann returns on Saturday. The question is whether Cowan should go back with Tavares-Nylander or if it should be McMann at this point.

– On a positive note, despite the failed clearing attempt at the end, this was the best William Nylander has looked in a few weeks. He was more actively transporting pucks, working to get pucks back, and holding onto them for longer in the offensive zone. The offensive opportunity he’ll create is inevitable when his feet are moving and he’s as engaged as he was for most of the night. If the Leafs are down another key puck mover and producer on their blue line, they’re going to need their drivers up front to do even more of the heavy lifting. Nylander must be a big part of that.

– Had to feel for Dennis Hildeby in this one. Coming off a shutout win over Tampa, he turned in another solid performance. It’s been impressive to witness the maturation of Hildeby’s game over the last 12 months, as he has developed from a goalie who looked a little overwhelmed and chaotic in the crease into a more positionally sound, confident puck stopper and save maker. When a goaltender is massive and athletic enough to effortlessly get across the crease on one-timers and backdoor plays, and is also tracking well and is positionally square to shooters, it’s a tough combination to beat. You can see why the Leafs wanted to bring in an extra goalie when Woll was unavailable to start the year, so that Hildeby didn’t sit idle and miss any development time — a problem for him last season — as there is real potential here.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights: Sharks 3 vs. Maple Leafs 2 (OT)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR