With 12 games to go, you can’t ask for much more than the situation in front of the Maple Leafs. 

There was a lot of frustration after blowing a two-goal lead to a mediocre Predators team, but at the end of the day, here is where the Leafs sit: two points behind the Atlantic division lead with a game in hand, while Tampa Bay is two points behind Toronto with the same number of games played.

We can argue about the Nashville game until our faces turn blue, but three wins in four games is a good week for the Leafs, and they have another four-game week ahead with three winnable games against the Flyers, Sharks, and Ducks, as well as a big matchup against the Kings. Take care of business there, and it sets up a two-week stretch in which they play the Panthers twice and the Lightning once. Those are really the games that will decide who wins the Atlantic to face (likely) the Senators in the first wildcard spot and who plays each other in the second vs. third part of the bracket. 

Those are the big-time playoff-type games circled on the calendar. Everything ahead of those matchups is about rounding into form, taking care of business, acclimating new players, etc. 

It’s not like Florida or Tampa are making a big push themselves. The Panthers have lost four of their past seven, and two of their three wins were in extra time against Columbus and a shootout win against the Penguins. Aaron Ekblad is suspended for the rest of the season. Matthew Tkachuk and Brad Marchand are both injured, and while the Panthers are going to get healthy and be an absolute handful in the playoffs, they are definitely vulnerable right now.

The Lightning just came off a weekend during which they were strangely greedy and rested Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first game of a back-to-back against Utah to play him the following night in Vegas. They lost both games in regulation. They are 3-4-1 in their past eight. 

The Leafs just concluded a 1-4-1 stretch before winning three of their next four. 

It’s a reach to suggest any team is truly laying claim to the division title. With 12 games to go, everything is in front of the Leafs. They control their destiny, and anything from first to third in the division is possible. 

Can they seize the opportunity? 

Notes

Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Maple Leafs vs. Kraken
Photo: Stephen Brashear/USA Today Sports

– There’s no direct correlation, but last season, the Leafs‘ power play produced a record-setting February, clicking at 50 percent (!), and then they fell off a cliff in March and rode the slump right into the playoffs. They’ve done that in two of the past four seasons, and the one year they were good on the power play — 2023 — they continued it into the playoffs and won a round. Only in 2022 were they good down the stretch before falling right off at playoff time:

  • March 2024: 9.1 percent
  • March 2023: 25 percent
  • March 2022: 33.3 percent
  • March 2021: 10.8 percent

So far this March, the Leafs’ power play is clicking at 40.7 percent, second in the league. While Mitch Marner doesn’t own a big shot from the point, he’s far more creative than Morgan Rielly and does a good job of not only using the flanks but bumping it to John Tavares in the middle, as he did on his goal against the Predators right in the middle. It’s not only gelling; it’s looking like far less of a liability defensively right now. The key is Auston Matthews and William Nylander backchecking hard as the flankers. 

–  On the flip side, the penalty kill has nosedived, killing just 69 percent of their penalties this month, tied for 26th. They are 21st in penalty-killing save percentage this month and fifth-worst in shot attempts against per 60 minutes, so they are bleeding volume, and their goalies aren’t handling it well.

Strangely, the one PK stat they rank well in is high-danger attempts against per 60 minutes (10th). Ultimately, it’s the same simple things we discuss every year: not challenging at the blue line and allowing easy entries, not pressing the puck enough, and not clearing the front of the net well.

The Leafs did start using some three-unit forward rotations on the PK in the past week with David Kampf in the mix, and it began to show some results. However, against Nashville, they went back to two units, by and large, until they wanted to rest Matthews-Marner down the stretch for one last 6v5 push.

The PK is the number-one area to fix down the stretch. Tampa Bay is fifth in the league on the power play, and Florida is 10th. They are hard enough teams to face at five-on-five; they can’t receive power play freebies all series if the Leafs plan to win.

–  It appeared Morgan Rielly was turning a corner in February when he recorded nine points in eight games and averaged 22:11, his highest total of any month this season. Well, that was short-lived, as he had just three assists in 11 games in March and is a minus-eight; plus/minus doesn’t always check out as a stat, but in this case, it does.

In the last few games alone, Rielly got burned on a simple 2v2 transition defense against the Predators and floated a weak flip up the boards against the Rangers, leading directly to goals. While there’s lots of talk about Brandon Carlo as a good fit for Rielly — and I agree that he is, on paper — they are shading the usage a bit too far on the defensive side.

So far, the duo is playing more with Tavares than Matthews and receiving 40 percent offensive-zone starts. Last season, when Ilya Lyubushkin was acquired, Rielly-Lyubushkin were over 48 percent in the regular season and over 58 percent in the playoffs. That’s not Carlo’s game, so the Leafs are instead uniting Rielly-Carlo through most of the game while pairing Rielly with Oliver Ekman-Larsson for offensive-zone draws or when the game calls for offense. Against Nashville, for example, Rielly played 10:58 with Carlo and 7:28 with OEL.

Maybe this is just the feeling-out process with a new partner, but it’s a bit of a tough fit in terms of deployment. In part, it’s hard to picture Rielly’s usage as anything other than sheltered offensive-zone starts. Even then, he’s not producing enough and will go weeks without threatening offensively. 

–  It’s a little thing but a big thing: I have noticed William Nylander is much more active in scrums lately—e.g., this crosscheck after Holmberg gets shoved, engaging physically instead of fishing for a loose puck or muscling Carson Soucy off the puck. There’s just a bit more dirt to his game of late, which is great to see.

Nylander has only been credited with four hits this month, but it actually represents his highest hit total of any month this season, as does his six shot blocks (tied with November). Nylander’s never going to be some massive hitter, but there are tons of top-end players, including his friend David Pastrnak, who play with some grease/dirt to their game. This is the first time I can recall Nylander starting to show some glimpses of it.   

–  We recently talked about the lack of five-on-five playoff-type goals by the Leafs, but look at what happened in the past week: Max Domi scored off a rebound from a point shot. Bobby McMann tipped a Jake McCabe point shot in the next game. John Tavares scored a rebound goal off a McCabe point shot, with McMann providing traffic. In fact, McMann was in front on all three of their five-on-five goals stemming from point shots in the past week. Can anyone follow his lead now?

Quotes

Scott Laughton, Maple Leafs
Photo: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

“I know Toronto was his first choice of all the teams that were calling about him — which was a lot. And he is from here, so I know it was a childhood dream to play here. He was super excited to come here. Always grew up cheering for the Leafs.”

“It’s tough when you come from a franchise you’ve been your whole career, and then you come somewhere new. It’s just a shellshock, and you got to get used to so many different things. So, there’s a huge adjustment period, and it’ll take some time, I’m sure. But I’m not worried about him. He’s just a total gamer and a guy you want on your team.”

– Erik Johnson on former teammate Scott Laughton

These are big adjustments, and when a player returns home, it adds an extra element to work through, especially when the player has never been traded before and has only played for one organization.

It’s even more difficult when the player comes from an organization that has struggled for years. When was the last time Scott Laughton played in a big game? He hasn’t played in the playoffs since 2020. Last season, Philadelphia was somewhat in a battle for a playoff spot down the stretch (they still sold at the deadline), and Laughton tallied 17 points in 25 February and March games. That’s about it, though. They’ve been largely uncompetitive for half a decade.

Now, Laughton is in a hockey hotbed where every game is a huge deal (you would swear the Leafs were eliminated altogether over the weekend based on reactions to the Nashville loss). It’s a big swing.

The coaching staff has to help Laughton out more — which is detailed below — but Laughton has to take a deep breath and reset. 

“But overall, I’ve just been trying to implement myself as much as I can right away, getting comfortable with the guys. Everybody here has been super nice, super kind, and that’s made the transition a bit easier.

“Like I said, I’m settling in now, I enjoy being here, I enjoy being part of this team. So, each day has gotten better in terms of not feeling out of place at times, I guess you could say, just because it’s been a big change. Overall, then, feeling pretty good.”

– Brandon Carlo on adjusting to being a Leaf

Conversely, Brandon Carlo comes directly from a winning hockey program. The Bruins have struggled this year, which is why he was available at all, but Carlo has played in the playoffs in six straight seasons—it’s about to be seven—and he has 72 playoff games under his belt, including a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. This is nothing new for him. He has come as advertised and is under contract for two more seasons at $3,485,000. 

“He grabbed ahold of the room. It is not good enough what is going on here. He went out and talked, and then he walked. That is really what it boils down to. He went out and led the way with the work and compete that was needed at the start of the game.”

– Craig Berube on Auston Matthews’ leadership after a big game against Calgary

I was a big advocate for Auston Matthews receiving the captaincy last summer. While I don’t think it has been any sort of resounding success to this point (nor do I think it is something we can judge after less than one year), these are the moments/reasons why I felt it was necessary. Ultimately, Matthews is the best player on the team and the most influential person on and off the ice. He has to be front and center in these scenarios, and in past years, he really hasn’t been.

There’s no victory lapping a win against a middling Flames team, and just last year, he also produced a similarly big game against the same Calgary Flames team, except it was smack in the middle of the season; Matthews scored a hat trick as the Leafs needed a win to right the ship a bit. The next game against Colorado was more impressive; I thought he was the best player on the ice.

All the extra focus, pressure, and limelight that comes with the captaincy is real, especially in Toronto. It’s important that their best player wears it and takes hold of the team in critical moments. Like it or not, Matthews has to be the man.

 

Tweets of the Week

John Prokop, Maple Leafs prospect
Photo: Unionathletics.com

We’ve mentioned this a bunch of times, but with the Leafs trading draft picks, this is one avenue they need to take to stock their cupboards. The other part is to be a leader in player development.

John Prokop is turning 24 shortly, so I’m not going to talk up a player who is old enough to not be considered a prospect anymore and has yet to play a single pro hockey game. But all the Leafs can do is take shots, develop, and see how it goes.

I will also add that it was nice to see that he signed a deal to finish the year in the AHL. It has never sat right with me that mid-level players who haven’t proven anything get signed out of college at this time of year and immediately receive NHL time while players who have been grinding in the minors all season continue to ride the bus.

Nick Abruzzese, for example, played nine NHL games right out of college for the Leafs a few years ago. Since then, he has only played two. Meanwhile, Bobby McMann was in the AHL setting a Marlies rookie goal record that season and didn’t sniff the league that year. Unless it’s a rare Matthew Knies-like prospect, the vast majority of these kids should go directly to the AHL. It’s a bit of a slap in the face to the players grinding in pro hockey in the AHL all season.

We will see if they can carry this into the playoffs when the hockey is tight like this almost every night.

As much as I think Calle Jarnkrok is one of the Leafs’ 12 best forwards, it is fair to note he hasn’t exactly walked in and hit the ground running. He’s also been buried in a defensive role with lots of defensive-zone starts and has strangely played a lot with Nylander; Nylander has been forced to play the left wing even though Jarnkrok has played well there in the past, and Nylander has never really shown himself as a fit on the left. All that said, while arguably Jarnkrok should be in the lineup nightly, he also needs to play better.

Five Things I Think I’d Do

Photo: John E. Sokolowski/USA TODAY Sports

1.    I think I would be hard-pressed to find a player who has been set up to fail by the Leafs more than Scott Laughton at this point (maybe when the Leafs traded for Tyson Barrie and Mike Babcock hilariously tried to make him play defense with end-of-power-play PP2 time).

So far, Laughton has played eight games with the team and has started those games with four different line combinations, plus a bunch of line mixing and matching in-game. For at least half of those games, I’d argue the top players turned in poor performances, and when this happens, with the way the Leafs are run, the whole team looks bad with the downstream impact.

Laughton’s most common linemate so far is Steven Lorentz, and his current 36 percent offensive-zone start rate as a Leafs would rank as the lowest percentage of his career. His other linemate right now is David Kampf, so Laughton actually has more career points than his two linemates combined. The player playing above Laughton on the left wing, Pontus Holmberg, has 45 career points in 149 games; Laughton nearly matched that total just last season alone (he had 39 points). Are we really going to pretend Holmberg is a better player as of today?

Laughton is not some massive needle mover—and when interest was first reported, I noted that John Tortorella preferred him on the wing—but this is unreasonable. He’s not been given a proper chance yet. Dropping him to the fourth-line left-wing spot to take a bunch of defensive-zone faceoffs, check, and play with linemates who barely produce is not doing anyone any favours.

If there’s one checking aspect of the game Laughton excels at, it’s penalty killing; he’s barely playing there, as if the Leafs penalty kill is good enough to justify keeping him off of it.

There is zero chance Brad Treliving had this in mind for Laughton when he acquired him, and that’s putting the acquisition cost aside. Compare the situation to Brandon Carlo, who has had the same partner since the acquisition. The coaching staff has a clear plan and deployment for Carlo that matches his skill set.

I think the coaching staff has done a poor job integrating Laughton to this point. While they can’t shoulder all the blame — Laughton does need to play better — they can at least try to set him up for success. It looks like they have no clue what to do with him right now, and that’s a shame. He is a useful player. 

2.   I think it’s clear the Leafs will not spread their stars across three lines. Berube has talked about liking pairs all season, and those pairs so far are Matthews-Marner, Tavares-Nylander, Domi-Robertson, and Kampf-Lorentz. The least they can do, then, is actually use them as pairs and rotate options through them up and down the lineup. When the Leafs came back against the Bruins, McMann moved up to the top line, Knies moved to the third line, and the third line scored twice in a comeback win. We haven’t seen this look since.

Is that not a viable lineup for a few games as we look ahead to a week with games against the Flyers, Sharks, and Ducks? That opens up the left-wing spot beside Tavares and Nylander for Laughton in an attempt to get him going as well. It leaves a more appropriate option for the fourth “checking” line of either Holmberg or my preferred choice, Jarnkrok, who, in my estimation, is clearly one of the Leafs’ 12 best forwards.

This at least gives the Leafs a chance at three lines, gives Laughton a chance to settle in playing alongside two good players, and also provides an opportunity to evaluate Knies away from Matthews and Marner to see if he can drive a line. It’s also important to give Domi a higher-end linemate to play off of; they clearly sucked the life out of Domi after he played well for a short stretch, as he ended up back on a limited third-line role centering Holmberg and Robertson.

3.   In general, I think it’s important to see Matthew Knies away from Matthews and Marner. It is a massive development if he can drive a line and elevate Domi. It’s also important as the conversation about his next contract picks up.

I really like Knies — he’s a rare power forward in this league — but he’s also shooting 20.5 percent and has 45 points in 66 games while largely playing with Marner, who is seventh in the league in scoring, and Matthews, who still has 63 points in 55 games in a down season. The brakes need to be pumped a little bit. Michael Bunting once tallied 63 points with the same linemates.

Knies has flashed potential down the lineup before, and if he’s as good of a player as many seem to think he is, driving the third line while the top line barely misses a beat with McMann in Knies’ place would net the Leafs out as a better overall team.

4.    I think the reasons for the Leafs’ insistence on playing Simon Benoit are two-fold. The first and most obvious is the penalty kill. Secondly, they also use Rielly-OEL for offensive zone faceoffs and pair up Benoit-Carlo on the flipside as a lefty-righty defensive zone pairing at times.

Rightfully, I wouldn’t want to be forced into a Myers-Carlo pairing to facilitate this usage at times, although I’d actually consider reworking the bottom two pairings. Rielly-Carlo have been shading toward defensive usage, and I’d like to see OEL-Carlo in this role since they actually trust OEL in shutdown minutes (whenever McCabe or Tanev have been hurt, it’s OEL who is elevated, not Rielly). They would then use Rielly-Myers in a sheltered offensive role. I know that’s not a good use of Rielly’s $7.5 million, but at this point, it is what it is. That’s a summer-time issue.

5.    I think there is nothing sillier than the “Who will start Game 1 of the playoffs?” debate. Both goalies have produced excellent seasons. There are 12 games left, which is a lot of time. Continue to rotate them, and they should each get in some big games down the stretch — Florida x2, Tampa, LA, Montreal, and Carolina. We’ll go from there. I promise this isn’t worth arguing about at this point. 

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