MLHS’ Anthony Petrielli joined Real Kyper McKee & Bourne on Tuesday afternoon to discuss the Maple Leafs’ playoff forward lineup, the Game 1 decision in net, the Morgan Rielly-Brandon Carlo pairing, and whether Philippe Myers should play over Simon Benoit in some games down the stretch.
Petrielli on the state of the Leafs‘ forward group ahead of the playoffs:
With the way it is configured, it all falls on the top six. You are not going to get much offense from the bottom-six lines. It is just the reality of it, but their top six is really good. Their top six, on paper, is fantastic. The McMann-Tavares-Nylander line is winning their minutes. The top line is a legitimate top line — one of the best in the league.
We have seen this before, but I think it might be the best second line they’ve ever had going into the playoffs. I don’t know if that is a controversial take. Nylander is second in the league in goals. Tavares is shooting the lights out this year. McMann is a legitimate 20-goal power forward. It is probably the best second line they’ve ever had going into the playoffs.
We’ve seen it in the past where the Leafs need the top line to win their minutes, and is the top line going to win their minutes notably against Barkov or matching up between the Point and Cirelli lines? If they don’t, is the third line giving them anything?
Their power play is also humming. I am not ready to say that the power play is officially going to be good in the playoffs; I don’t think anything they could do now will make them anyone feel good about it until they actually are good in the playoffs. We will see if they carry it through when they play Florida twice and Tampa, and at the same time, will they give anything up the other way in terms of shorthanded offense against? We saw some cracks last week with the shorty against San Jose, and LA could have scored twice.
With all of that said, a good power play would negate some of the lack of offense from the bottom six and if the top line goes up against Barkov with them scoring four and giving up three over a series, for example. A really good power play makes up for some of it.
The power play hasn’t done them any favours most years, and they are probably a little deeper in the top six. If we go back to the LA game, Knies was amazing. He was unbelievable. We used to be talking about Michael Bunting. Zach Hyman was good here, but he wasn’t what he is in Edmonton. This version of Knies is probably the best left winger Matthews and Marner have ever had, and it is probably the best top-six in general they’ve ever had.
I get why they want to go with this top six — it is really good — but if the third line is getting tilted by Anton Lundell, who had 17 points in the playoffs last year… Florida is a nightmare for matchups for anybody. That is why they have won seven of their last eight playoffs series. Playoffs is all about matchups, and Florida poses a matchup problem.
But this is also the benefit of the Leafs improving the defense. It gives them a little more wiggle room.
Petrielli on whether Max Pacioretty in the lineup makes him feel any better about the Leafs‘ bottom six:
Not really, but could he get you a goal a series? It would be a big deal. When Florida acquired Tarasenko at the deadline last year, that is what Paul Maurice said to him: “We just need one goal from you every series.” I don’t think Pacioretty is as good as Tarasenko was last year, but for all of these guys — Laughton, Pacioretty, Domi — can they each get a goal per series? The top line and the power play should, theoretically, produce.
Petrielli on whether he is starting Anthony Stolarz for Game 1 of the playoffs:
It is probably easier to turn to Joseph Woll if Anthony Stolarz doesn’t start well, but I am mindful of the fact that Woll is the only one who has started a playoff game before, and he has been good in the playoffs. I am still of the mind, “Let the season play out.”
Stolarz is going to start vs. Florida on Wednesday. We know Woll is going to get one of the two next week. We will probably have a better indication after these next 3-5 games. In there, you have Columbus, who has given the Leafs problems this year. They play Montreal coming up, and they are fighting for their lives, on top of the Florida and Tampa games. I want to see those games play out.
Again, Woll has been really good in the playoffs. I don’t know if you can necessarily go wrong starting with either guy, to be honest with you.
Petrielli on the concern level with Morgan Rielly’s game entering the playoffs:
I saw [Bourne’s] stats about his speed showing that it has been down this year. That is the problem, right? His game is predicated on speed. We are watching Tavares have an unbelievable year, and he was never a strong skater. At 18 years old, he was never a strong skater.
If you are Rielly, you are looking at it and thinking, “If the skating is on the decline, you are in tough.” Even on the power play, when it comes to picking out the right pass and putting it in the wheelhouse, he is not a passer; he is a skater. I am a little bit worried there.
In the LA game, they had the McCabe-Tanev play with the Tavares line, especially against an LA team that was trying to match up Danault against Matthews. They were putting their top line — the Kopitar and Kempe unit — against the Tavares line and trying to exploit a matchup, but the Leafs are countering with one of the best shutdown pairings in the league.
On the flipside, now you are playing Rielly-Carlo with Matthews, Marner, and Knies. It makes their life a lot easier. “Don’t get burned, move the puck up to those guys, and let them do their thing.”
They are going to try to shelter Rielly, understandably so, and Carlo is a big help. Carlo is a legitimate top-four defenseman. They needed another righty who could play in the top four and shift things around on their defense. I know we are complaining about the third line — did they do enough at forward? — but on defense, it opens up their options with their matchups at the top half of the lineup.
Defensemen just play more than forwards. That is the simple math of it. That is why it is a big deal.
Petrielli on whether Rielly’s game has improved since he joined the pairing with Brandon Carlo:
I think it has been somewhat the same, but he is benefitting from playing with a better partner and the lack of ambiguity. We know every night who he is playing with.
Where they get into trouble a little bit: They might move their defense around a little too much in the sense that Rielly takes a lot of shifts with OEL for offensive-zone draws. I was looking at it, and over March, OEL was second on their defense in time on ice per game. He is good, but it is probably too much. I don’t know if he is second-in-TOI-amon-defensemen-on-a-Cup-contender-good.
Realistically, they are resting Tanev. Tanev is playing 19 a night right now. They can’t possibly sit there and think Tanev is their fourth-best defenseman. Dallas did the same last year. He played 19 a night, and then in the playoffs, he played over 22.
Petrielli on whether Philippe Myers should receive some games on the bottom pairing with OEL:
Berube said he didn’t love OEL on the right last week. How are they justifying this, then? Play the righty. I don’t know if it would be better, but I don’t know why it isn’t worth trying.
Is Simon Benoit such a good second-unit PKer on the left-hand side? That is their justification at this rate: the penalty kill.
It is making OEL worse. We saw this earlier in the year when he went to the right. I don’t want to say his game fell apart, but it definitely trended down. When they put him back on the left, he looked really good.
On the right, he really struggles to make passes on breakouts. It is backhand, off the glass, and out. He is not even looking for outlets half the time, and I don’t blame him. He is turning, and it is awkward.
I don’t know what the return on investment is. It is the second unit PK. OEL can’t second-unit PK on the left, or even Rielly on occasion? Also, their PK isn’t good.
If OEL is a 7/10 on the right, what is he back on the left?
It is at least worth trying. You are going to need seven or eight defensemen over a long playoff run. If Myers’ last game is March 10 and three weeks from now, someone gets hurt so Myers is playing for the first time in a month and a half, I am going to sit there and wonder what they were doing.
Petrielli on the big game vs. Florida on Wednesday:
It is a must-win. You can’t lose to Florida at home against a tired Panthers team that played the night before. It is their third game in four nights. The Leafs are rested and have been home for a couple of days. They haven’t had success against Florida this year. You just can’t lose the game. Well, they can, but there is no excuse.
