Despite a shaky start, the Maple Leafs grabbed the lead and locked this game down in the final two periods, pushing the team one step closer to an Atlantic Division title with a 4-1 win in Carolina.

Put simply, this was just a really solid win over a very good Hurricanes team, in tough circumstances with a back-to-back and travel in between (the Canes played yesterday, but at home at 3 p.m. EST). The Leafs overcame a slow start and got the result they deserved in one of the toughest buildings in hockey.

Your game in 10:

1.   Last night against the Habs, the Leafs did a great job of getting shots through to the net while preventing shots from getting through at the other end, as Anthony Stolarz enjoyed his lightest workload of the season. The opposite was true in the first period against Carolina.

For most of the first period, the Canes held the Leafs to practically nothing offensively. Through 19 minutes, the Leafs had two shots on goal via failed 2v1 chances; Scott Laughton and Matthew Knies were both denied by Frederik Andersen.

Meanwhile, at the other end, Joseph Woll had to come up big several times as the Leafs spent too much time in their own zone dealing with the high-shot-attempt-volume approach of Carolina. The Canes’ two best chances came off similar plays in which a forward by the net caught the puck above his head and dropped it to his stick; Andrei Svechnikov generated the first chance, forcing Woll to sprawl out to make the stop. A few moments later, Jackson Blake had a chance at the side of the net with Woll initially unaware of where the puck was, but the Leafs‘ netminder still recovered with another great save.

It is not the sole reason for the Leafs’ success in back-to-backs this season — where they finished an impressive 10-4-2, a huge part of leading the division — but two superb, mostly-healthy options in the net has given them a lot of breathing room to find their way into or through games where they’re not going to be at their best or most energetic. We saw another example of it in the first period of tonight’s game.

2.   As is often the case in these types of games, the team that is getting outshot, out-chanced, and outplayed but is hanging around thanks to great goaltending then goes and scores first. It came at a critical juncture in the game, late in a first period in which the shots were 13-3 Carolina. Statistically, one of the few teams in the league better than the Leafs at translating scoring first into wins is the Hurricanes — especially on home ice — so this was a huge goal late in the period.

In the final moments of the opening frame, the modified third line of Bobby McMann, Pontus Holmberg, and Nick Robertson advanced the puck into the offensive zone and cycled it back to the point. Brandon Carlo hammered a shot from the point that was blocked, taking a bite out of Tyson Jost. The deflected shot wound up on the stick of Morgan Rielly, who flung a soft backhand towards the net. That shot was easily turned aside by Andersen, but he kicked the puck right to Holmberg, who finished off the rebound.

3.   While the Leafs were slow out of the gates, they really settled into their game in the second period. In the opening 20 minutes, the Hurricanes controlled 75% of the shot attempts while generating 1.92 xGF, and 7 HDCF. In the second? Shot attempts were dead even 13-13, and the Leafs held Carolina to 0.18 xGF and zero high-danger chances. Forget low-event hockey; the Leafs, with the lead, forced the Canes into no-event hockey.

In fact, 10 minutes into the period, the shots on goal were 1-1. Absolutely nothing was happening, to the satisfaction of the leading road team.

4.  All of that said, a one-goal lead after 20 minutes is hardly safe, and the Leafs needed to make some kind of push to create more offense/offensive-zone time and build on their lead.

Auston Matthews had a chance 1-on-1 with Brent Burns but sent the shot high. As the puck was sent back into the neutral zone, the Leafs regained possession and made good on a second rush chance.

Mitch Marner banked the puck off the boards, where Matthews collected it. With an opportunity to rush for a mini 2v1, Matthews held up a moment and found the trailing Rielly. As Rielly received the pass, the Hurricanes defenders all swarmed to the puck/net front, leaving the pass back to Matthews wide open for a one-timer. Even in a “down” year, Matthews doesn’t miss these.

As for Rielly, he’s shown an encouraging burst of life offensively in the last few games — more active getting up the ice into the rush and involved inside the offensive zone, as seen on both the first two Leaf goals in this game. The Leafs are going to need this version of Rielly in the playoffs; while it’s too early to declare that he has flipped the switch into Playoff Rielly mode, the timing of his three-point game tonight — giving him six points in his last five games — is a reason for optimism.

5.   The Leafs generated a few more chances following the Matthews tally. Holmberg set up Robertson for a chance in the slot in front, stopped by Andersen. Holmberg also drew a penalty, but the Leafs struggled with their zone entries 5v4. The only effective entry they generated came when Marner actually held the puck instead of dropping the puck back and just knifed through the neutral zone before the vaunted Hurricanes PK had a chance to set up.

The Leafs’ PP is now 1 for its last 14, which on the surface is concerning, given the timing and the team’s history of cooling off at the worst possible time on the man advantage. However, it is notable that the PP scored a huge goal in Tampa and was extremely dangerous against Montreal, even if the puck didn’t fall for them on Saturday night.

It’s premature to panic, and two games against two of the worst penalty kills in the NHL — Buffalo (21st) and Detroit (32nd) — to close out the regular season should provide plenty of opportunities to enter the playoffs riding positive vibes on the man advantage.

6.  The Leafs got another jolt from a newly formed line to open the final frame.

Despite taking line rushes in his usual spot as the third-line center, Max Domi was elevated to play the wing on the John Tavares-William Nylander line. It was an ugly start for the line in the first period; shot attempts were 9-0 Carolina in their minutes to start the night. While the 200-foot viability of this unit is up for serious questioning, there is clear offensive potential to the trio, at a minimum; Domi provides a skilled playmaker alongside two red-hot shooters, and Domi can play at Nylander’s pace off the rush.

Coming off a 3-1 loss to Florida, followed by a 4-3 OT win over Tampa driven entirely by the first line’s offense and the power play, and then a 0-0 game vs. Montreal (before a 3v3 OT win), Berube was looking for a bit of a spark up front beneath his top line and got one tonight.

Early in the third, the Leafs tried to start a cycle, but the puck was cleared to the point. However, noted offensive defenseman Simon Benoit jumped up to keep the play alive (on a serious note, Benoit has been quite effective at activating when appropriate to get involved in the attack or to extend offensive sequences lately). Benoit sent the puck over to Domi, who fired a pretty shot-pass towards the net, where Nylander deflected it behind Andersen for his 45th of the season.

7.  In a bit of a weird sequence, Chris Tanev picked up multiple penalties on the same play (tripping and high-sticking), sending Toronto to the penalty kill for four minutes. On the kill, the Leafs mostly did a good job of retaining its structure under pressure, but Woll also had to come up big at points, including absolutely robbing Jack Roslovic.

Unfortunately, Woll’s shutout bid came to an end in the final moments of that 5v4.

This goal was somewhat rough justice for Scott Laughton, who didn’t take the seam away here but was enjoying some good PK shifts in this game and even ripped a shorthanded breakaway chance bar down and out not long beforehand (which sort of sums up the start to his Leaf tenure, as he’s not gotten many/any breaks).

I’d still point out, based on the promising glimpses we’ve seen in Toronto and his history in Philly, that there is real shorthanded utility here that suggests Laughton could be more than a bit-part PKer who offers the team around 50 seconds-1 minute per game shorthanded.

8.   While puck luck may not have favoured Laughton, the Leafs scored a fortuitous goal to make up for it to close out the game.

Domi found himself in a position so good that even he had to shoot it, but the shot was blocked. Sticking with it, Domi regained possession and sent a pass back to Tavares. He hardly got good wood on the shot, but Andersen was scrambling under the pressure, and the puck knuckled through the air and into the net.

 

Tavares is now in with a shot at 40 goals for the first time since his first season in Toronto. Now, combine it with Knies closing in on 30 (one away), McMann already hitting 20, and Nylander reaching a new milestone at 45. It is sort of masked over in the overall numbers since Matthews has 38 fewer goals than last season with just two games to play, but it does provide reason for optimism if you’re hoping not to see the Leafs shut down again offensively in the playoffs. There is a greater breadth of impact Leafs forwards in stronger goal-scoring form than past seasons.

9.   While the third period wasn’t quite the defensive masterclass the second was, the Leafs effectively shut the game down. They held Carolina to 0.74 xGF and just two high-danger chances in the third at five-on-five, securing the win with minimal stress. Overall, it was a very clean back 40 to make up for the lacklustre opening period.

The pre-game shuffle of the lines led to Berube reassembling the Lorentz-Laughton-Jarnkrok fourth line we’ve seen before in a short sample, and they ended up playing significant/middle-six minutes for the Leafs in this game as Berube rolled the lines down the stretch in the back-to-back. All three forwards finished in the 15-16 minute range.

Amid tonight’s shuffle, it seems pretty unlikely that we will see Domi on the Tavares wing or Holmberg at 3C for Game 1 of the playoffs, but this line is a tenable energy/checking line combination as the team’s possible Game 1 L4. It earned rave reviews post-game from Craig Berube:

Berube: I thought the Laughton-Jarnkrok-Lorentz line really did a great job tonight of dictating how we need to play the game and being a hard line to play against. They did a good job and provided a lot of energy for us.

I knew I needed minutes out of these guys. I got the minutes out of them.

10.   With just the Sabres and Red Wings left on Toronto’s schedule, the magic number now sits at just one point for the Leafs to clinch their first division title since the 1999-2000 season. If Tampa drops a point in their final two games or the Leafs gain one, it’s a wrap, and the Battle of Ontario is officially on for the first time since 2004.

Game Flow: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Heat Map: 5v5 Shot Attempts

Game Highlights w/ Joe Bowen & Jim Ralph

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