The Battle of Ontario is still raging after Jake Sanderson scored in OT to send the series back to Toronto.
For the second consecutive game, the Ottawa Senators started the game with authority and scored first. Unlike Game 3, they also tacked on a second goal to take a 2-0 lead and seemed to be in more control than at any previous time in the series. The Maple Leafs mounted a comeback to tie the game at 2-2 before both teams scored in the third, and we ultimately headed to overtime for the third consecutive game in the series.
Overtime saw the Maple Leafs get a four-minute power play opportunity to win the game (and the series), but an injury to John Tavares led to a change in Toronto’s PP setup, and the effects were quite evident. In the final minutes of overtime, a seeing-eye shot from Jake Sanderson found the back of the net to win the game for Ottawa. The Senators are on the board in the series, still down 3-1, as we head back for Game 5 in Toronto, with much to discuss.
Notable Game 4 Performances
Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews failed to find the score sheet or make much of an impact in Game 4. Matthew Knies, the third component of their line, scored a goal with a fabulous individual effort, but neither #16 nor #34 was involved. As a whole, it was an underwhelming game for the big duo, who were culprits on the Shane Pinto shorthanded goal while the power play failed to convert for the Leafs. Their five-on-five play had its moments, but when the team needed goals to get back in the game, Knies and William Nylander created those moments, not Matthews/Marner. The Leafs need a stronger performance in Game 5 from their top line.
Nylander probably played his best game of the series in creating two hugely important goals. His pass to set up an easy goal for John Tavares was a terrific feed from the point and helped rescue a wretched first period for Toronto by ensuring they only went to the locker room down one. Then, in the third period down a goal, Nylander zipped a cross-seam feed to split open the Ottawa defense and free up Oliver Ekman-Larsson for a goal to tie it. These were big-time plays by Nylander, and he deserves credit for showing up on a night when the other stars didn’t shine.
That second line merits some discussion alongside the bottom six “scoring line”. Craig Berube went into Game 4 with the same line combinations from Game 3, combos that worked well enough to give another look. This second try didn’t go as well as the first one. Midway through the game, Berube bumped Bobby McMann back up to the second line while dropping Holmberg down to play with Max Domi and Max Pacioretty, a switch that worked as the Nylander/Tavares line instantly looked stronger with McMann on it, scoring the equalizing goal in the third. The Domi line also looked a bit better with Holmberg on it, almost scoring in the third period via Max Pacioretty after a Senators turnover forced Linus Ullmark and defenseman Tyler Kleven to rescue the chance.
At this point, the multitude of evidence suggests that McMann works better with Tavares and Nylander, his best fit in the lineup, and is the best winger to bring out the best in those two stars. As for the other line, Domi took an undisciplined penalty in the faceoff dot, leading to the Senators’ opening goal on the power play. With less adrenaline pumping through his veins, Pacioretty looked slower and overall less noticeable than he was coming fresh off a scratch in Game 3, although he did lead the team in hits for the second consecutive game. The Leafs coaching staff should probably be honest with themselves and at least maximize the second line by playing McMann there.
The checking line of Scott Laughton, Calle Järnkrok, and Steven Lorentz generated a strong shift near the end of regulation, when it seemed like the gritty unit might end the series. Overall, they didn’t get scored on and came out roughly even in shots and chances while on the ice, which is primarily what Craig Berube asks of them. Notably, they drew over eight minutes of the Tim Stützle matchup at five-on-five, as Green shifted the matchups in search of some more five-on-five opportunity for his star center, and shots were just 2-0 Senators in those minutes. They kept the game low-event inside a tough assignment, so it was mission accomplished for this line. Notably, Laughton finished fifth among Leaf forwards in time on ice, partly due to Tavares’ absence in OT.
On defense, Morgan Rielly led the team in ice time at 30:51, partly due to his role on the power play in overtime with Tavares out. Rielly didn’t exactly breathe life into the OT power play and did not record a point in the game. He and Brandon Carlo were on the ice for the OT winner for Ottawa, one of only two five-on-five goals the Leafs allowed; Carlo may have partially screened Stolarz, but it’s hard to place blame on either defenseman. Jake McCabe logged 27:12 and picked up an assist on the third-period goal, although he and Tanev were on ice for the Perron third-period goal. Oliver Ekman-Larsson deserves a shoutout for picking up his second goal of the series in a critical spot, making a good cut backdoor to put himself in scoring position once Nylander got him the puck. One of the worst teams in the league at producing offense from the defense, the Leafs have gotten five goals from their defensemen in four playoff games.
Finally, the performance of Anthony Stolarz dipped in this game, saving only 17 of 21 shots for an .810 save percentage in the contest. Ottawa’s opening goal, from Stützle on the power play, required Stolarz to move a bit, but it was not a change-of-sides pass, there was no screen, and it didn’t exactly find the top corner. It’s a save we expect Stolarz to make. Pinto’s shorthanded goal was a breakaway shot that snuck through him. The third goal he had little chance with a defensive breakdown allowing Artem Zub to set up David Perron for a tap-in, but the winning goal saw Stolarz unable to fight through the traffic to get a sight-line on Sanderson’s point shot. There weren’t any howlers from Stolarz, but he wasn’t as sharp as normal, and he usually comes up with at least one more save in that mix of goals. In a one-goal game, it was one of the deciding points of the contest.
Storylines for Game 5
1. Can Anthony Stolarz bounce back? This is the biggest discussion point after Game 4, because Stolarz’s mediocre performance was a significant come-down from the standard we are used to. In the abstract, it is not a big deal; good goalies have “down games” all the time. Stolarz, in particular, has been on such a heater — 11 straight wins dating back to the regular season before Game 4 — that a wobblier effort and ultimately a loss were bound to happen sooner or later. But everything in the playoffs is magnified, the stakes so much higher, and a poor performance can flip the trajectory of a series.
The Leafs’ success this season has been built around getting consistently excellent goaltending from Stolarz and Joseph Woll, so any time they get anything less than excellence, it stands out. Stolarz bouncing back onto his game will be a key component of the formula for the Leafs to close this series out in Game 5, and the presence of Woll as a quality tandem goalie sitting on the bench increases the need for Stolarz to be stellar in Game 6. The Leafs don’t want this series dragging, and no one wants the narrative after Game 5 to be about a goaltending controversy and the possibility of starting Woll in Game 6.
2. The opening minutes. The first period of Game 4 was Ottawa’s best in the series, dictating play and forcing the Maple Leafs onto the defensive. Toronto hung in there by blocking shots, but the play was tilted towards their half of the ice. The Sens broke through to score twice on special teams in the first period and had numerous chances at five-on-five to make it a three-goal edge, while dominating the shot attempts and chances column in that first period. The Senators felt the urgency of the 3-0 hole and responded by playing with urgency.
Contrast that with the games in Toronto, where the Leafs blitzed the Senators out of the gate. In Game 1, they scored twice in the first 13 minutes of the game. In Game 2, they scored just 3:43 into the game and scored twice within the first nine minutes. Those were hot starts, the kind that the Leafs have seldom gotten when it’s time to close out a series (see: point 5 below). Who grabs control early — whether it looks more like Games 1-2 or Games 3-4 — sets the tone for how the rest of the game will play out. Coming off a loss, the Leafs need to start with the fire this time and assert early control.
3. Getting the Leafs’ PP back on track. Game 4 was the first time in the series that the Maple Leafs’ power play failed to score, and not just did they fail to score, they also allowed a shorthanded goal. Combined with Stützle scoring on the Ottawa power play, the Senators finished +2 in special teams goals, which is not what the Maple Leafs want but is what the Sens need to win games in this series. As we saw in the first three games of the series, when the Leafs’ power play is firing on all cylinders, they can outscore Ottawa’s tepid five-on-five offense and bury the Senators in a deficit they can’t dig out of.
The first Game 4 power play that the Leafs received was marred by the shorty allowed to Shane Pinto, a dubious decision by Mitch Marner at the top and Auston Matthews, who provided no support. The second power play was abbreviated — the ~1:20 carryover after a Leaf penalty expired to conclude 4v4 time — and in that time, John Tavares got a decent look swinging down the wing and driving the net to create a jam play, but the Leafs couldn’t do much with it.
The biggest missed opportunity was in overtime, when Batherson took the four-minute double minor for high-sticking. This was a golden opportunity to end the series, but Tavares was sidelined in concussion protocol after the high hit from Artem Zub a minute or so prior. Craig Berube made one of his more controversial decisions of this series so far. He abandoned the five-forward setup, pushed Nylander and Marner to the flanks, and inserted Morgan Rielly onto the top unit. The group was far less fluid and dynamic. They did create a few opportunities (four minutes is a long time), including a Matthews shot off the post, but they didn’t challenge Linus Ullmark enough overall.
Overall, it was a night to forget on the power play, and it’s why Game 5 will be so interesting. The ghosts of playoffs past, where the power play failed to deliver repeatedly, began to creep in after the four-minute PP was for naught in Game 4. Game 5 needs to see the power play get back on track before it gives the wobbly Sens PK any confidence. The Leafs built a commanding 3-0 edge in this series while riding a sizzling PP. Now they need to put the series away just the way they started it.
4. Matthew Knies, difference maker. The emergence of Knies as a “core” member of this team has been one of the defining storylines of both the regular season, where he netted 29 goals and 58 points, and now these playoffs. Knies’ excellence was on display in Game 4 with his flashy solo effort for the game’s second goal, poking the puck by Zub, outracing him to win possession in open ice, and then using his strength and hands to maintain control and create the space to lift it over Linus Ullmark. On a night when his star linemates were disappointingly quiet, Knies stole the show with that goal.
After scoring in Game 4, Knies now has three goals in four games this series. That’s already the most goals he’s ever scored in a single playoffs, and his role on the team just keeps growing. Last year against Boston, Knies played only 15 minutes per night in a series that included a couple of overtime games. This year against Ottawa, he’s up to 20:47 on average across the four games. He’s now a crucial cog on the power play, where two of his three goals have been scored, and Knies has looked incredibly comfortable in playoff hockey, bearing fewer of the scars of playoff failure than the likes of Marner/Matthews/Nylander wear. Knies scored an OT goal last year against Boston in the playoffs, and if the Leafs are looking for a hero in Game 5, a good bet is Knies, who is quickly becoming a playoff monster.
5. Another “close-out game” opportunity. The Game 4 broadcast emphasized this narrative repeatedly to the annoyance of some Leafs fans, but it is hard to ignore the numbers. After the loss in Game 4, the Maple Leafs are now 1-12 in the Matthews/Marner era in “close-out games” of a playoff series. The struggles of this core in sudden-death games to decide a series are very well known, but the “close-out games” problem illustrates the point more broadly. Any time there’s been a chance to slam the door and move on to the next round, getting it done has been a struggle for this group.
They’ve especially had troubles in OT games with these stakes, losing two close-out games in the extra session to Montreal in 2021, one to Tampa in 2022, one to Boston last year (in Game 7), and now Game 4 to Ottawa in this series. Toronto’s one successful close-out game was in OT against Tampa in 2023, so their overall record in close-out overtime games is 1-5. It has been a consistent, recurring theme for this group, and the performance of Marner in these games has been especially troubling, having never scored a goal in a close-out game. With Matthews and Marner putting together lacklustre games in Game 4, a strong rebound performance from the top line to end a series in Game 5 would go a long way towards restoring some faith in the fanbase that things are different this year.
