Rest assured, we will soon tee up the Maple Leafs-Panthers rematch, but I wanted to first jot down a few thoughts about the Leafs’ first-round series win over the Ottawa Senators.
Last summer, it was clear the Leafs needed to hire an experienced coach with playoff pedigree. This couldn’t be an entry-level job again – although Sheldon Keefe found out the “real NHL” is hard this season, too! – and Brad Treliving went with the veteran hand by bringing in Craig Berube.
Berube wasn’t perfect in the first round, but he pulled many of the right levers. The team was ready to play and focused on hockey at the start of the series, and they looked like an experienced group early on against a playoff newbie. He didn’t complain when John Tavares got cross-checked in the face. The Leafs were disciplined, composed, and didn’t unravel. Berube deserves a lot of credit for this; he leads the group, although some of it is the team naturally maturing over time and adding more quality veterans to the group, especially Chris Tanev and OEL.
Berube was decisive in sticking with Stolarz, which paid off. He was also consistent in his approach in the media – consistently positive, constantly backing his players, reminding everyone repeatedly that they were up in the series while fans and media were losing their minds after a few losses, and generally acting like a coach who had been there.
We didn’t like some of Berube’s decisions: Starting Max Domi on L2, the Game 4 power play in overtime where they put Morgan Rielly on the point while Tavares was in concussion protocol, and running Pontus Holmberg on L2 for too long. But some of Berube’s decisions made him look great. He stuck with Max Pacioretty, who closed the series with a game-winning goal and an assist. He didn’t overthink the power-play unit, sticking with it despite two shorthanded goals against, and the power play scored a key goal in Game 6. The penalty kill did its job, killing 80%. Berube also didn’t mess around with the lines too much, especially compared to the prior annual tradition of, “Oh, this is a new line we’re suddenly trying in the spring.”
Everything Berube did was fairly consistent with his approach throughout the season, and he generally reunited lines that he already had data on. These sound like simple concepts now, but they haven’t been for previous staff.
Forward Ice Time Distribution
The Leafs’ ice time allocation is worth noting.
Game 6 was beautiful. No Leafs forward played more than William Nylander’s 19:07. There was no ridiculous number beside their top players’ names. We weren’t watching Marner and Matthews play 23-24 minutes and look gassed down the stretch of games. In fact, Matthews and Marner were excellent after the Leafs took the lead.
Marner led the team in ice time per game, averaging 22:17. It’s a lot, but consider the previous five seasons under Keefe. Last season, he came back from the high-ankle sprain and clearly struggled while averaging 21:13. The four playoffs before:
- 24:08
- 22:56
- 24:43
- 24:39
Deeply unserious.
Matthews is a similar story. Last spring, his minutes were down due to the injury situation, but before then, he averaged between 22:17 and 25 minutes per game through four playoffs. Through six games so far in 2025? 20:49.
At the other end of the spectrum, Steven Lorentz played the lowest average time on ice per game on the team in the first round at 12:06. Last playoffs, four Leafs forwards played at least five games who averaged less than 12:06: Holmberg, Robertson, Dewar, and Reaves.
Some of this speaks to the Leafs’ depth as well. The Leafs hit on Lorentz, who has been a significant depth addition for the team. He checks well, has become a good penalty killer, and provides some speed and forechecking.
Adding Scott Laughton, and to some degree, Calle Jarnkrok
To improve their depth at forward, the Leafs acquired Scott Laughton, who has started to really demonstrate his value after a rocky start to his Toronto tenure.
Laughton finished sixth amongst Leafs forwards in time on ice per game against Ottawa. He recorded two points in the series, setting up the first goal in Game 1, and laid out for a huge block leading to the series-clinching empty-net goal. I will watch the block on repeat all weekend; it is the type of sacrifice required to win at this time of year and has been lacking too often on this team.
Laughton’s line played the second-most time together at five-on-five of any Leafs unit in the first round and was second with 20 defensive-zone faceoffs taken compared to just six in the offensive zone. They were the only line on the team with a positive shot differential in the series. They out-chanced opponents and ended up 1-1 in goals, which the team will take all day long from the checking unit.
Calle Jarnkrok and Lorentz were really good as well, relative to their roles. It’s not all Laughton, but he’s the linchpin, and neither David Kampf nor Max Domi could’ve provided what Laughton provided in the role. Laughton was also fourth among Leafs forwards in hits with 16, which doesn’t seem like much, but the Leafs don’t have many forwards who play like him (i.e., some jam and some skill). The conversations about Laughton went way too far after he struggled early on after the trade. He’s been a solid player in the league for a long time, and he didn’t suddenly forget how to play hockey at the age of 30. He’s become a really useful and important player on this team.
Jarnkrok also deserves a small mention in this regard, too. The offense is seemingly never there, but he was good in a checking role and as a secondary penalty killer. The Leafs clearly viewed him as an additional trade deadline add, and while I think they will need some extra offense from the bottom six at some point (probably in the next round), Jarnkrok and Laughton combined to provide a big boost. The Leafs wouldn’t have received this kind of value from Connor Dewar, Ryan Reaves, or David Kampf.
The Brandon Carlo Addition
The same sentiment applies – perhaps even more so – to Brandon Carlo. I won’t sit here and compare him to Conor Timmins or Philippe Myers. Everyone understands the difference.
Carlo’s acquisition allowed the Leafs to click their defense into its proper place. There was no more OEL on his offside in the top four. Instead, OEL moved down the lineup, where his game has been excellent, including two goals in the Ottawa series. The Rielly-Carlo pairing won their minutes 4-3 at five-on-five, and they were the only pairing on the team with a positive goal differential (the other two were both dead even).
The Leafs’ defense averaged between 22:31 per game (Jake McCabe) and 18:30 per game (Simon Benoit). In the middle, Tanev and Carlo averaged identical 19:44 per game marks, while OEL averaged 19:42. They very much got it done by committee, and that’s what the team needs when it doesn’t have a true stud number-one defenseman. Their defensemen kind of take turns in terms of who leads the pack in ice time on any given night, and it can work so long as the star forwards deliver. Their pairings make clear and logical sense now.
Special Teams
Before this series, the Leafs’ cumulative special teams since 2017 were:
- Power Play: 16.9 percent
- Penalty Kill: 74.3 percent
This series?
- Power Play: 35.3 percent
- Penalty Kill: 80 percent
I wouldn’t say special teams decided the series – the Leafs won the five-on-five goal battle 12-8 – but not only did their special teams generally contribute, they were legitimate assets. The power play blew open Game 1 and scored in each of their next two games, which were one-goal games decided in overtime. The PP opened the scoring in Game 6 en route to the series clinch. The Leafs gave up two shorthanded goals the other way in their losses, but there was far more good than bad.
Last playoffs, it reached a point where Leafs fans wanted to reject the penalty calls. Not only did the Toronto power play not score, but it was actively draining energy from the team. In this round, they were setting up regularly and produced some really good power plays where they did everything but score. It was largely a positive momentum builder. The five-forward unit is clearly worth running; the alternatives will likely take them right back to Boston-series levels.
The Leafs’ penalty kill was also solid. The power play was scoring, and the team was winning the five-on-five goals, so they only needed the penalty kill not to be a disaster, and it wasn’t. It largely did its job. Even when the Senators’ power play scored, some extenuating circumstances were involved – an own-goal off Carlo’s skate, a 5v3, or a very stoppable one-timer that was a more-than-fine shot to give up from the PK’s perspective. Matthews and Marner were excellent on the PK and weren’t on for a goal against together shorthanded. The PK deserved better than when David Perron tied the game in Game 6, but all is well that ends well.
Laughton was the Leafs’ third penalty killer at 1:23 per game, below Matthews, who was next at 1:55, and well ahead of Matthew Knies’ 55 seconds per game. The integration of Laughton on the penalty kill was long and drawn out – arguably unnecessarily – during the regular season, but they finally appear to have confidence in him shorthanded, and he’s rolling on the PK. The only goal against Laughton was on for on the PK in the series was the one off Carlo’s skate (although he did lose the preceding faceoff). He was first up on the 5v3 kill and did an excellent job there. He’s naturally aggressive in the role and challenges puckhandlers rather than retreating and attempting to read the play (a recipe for disaster).
The Leafs honed in on their six penalty killers, with a top unit of Matthews-Marner and a revolving door of Knies, Lorentz, and Jarnkrok next to Laughton. The group is experienced, it’s starting to gel, and so far, they are avoiding the basic mistakes.
On defense, those PK forward duos are supported by McCabe-Tanev and Benoit-Carlo. There is a lot of length there. The Leafs’ defensemen boxed out incredibly well against an Ottawa team that thrived on crashing the net this season. They will face a much tougher test against Florida moving forward, but it’s a physical, strong unit that was really good in front of its own net. Ottawa won Game 5, but Drake Batherson will be haunted by the empty-net opportunity that Tanev outmuscled him from scoring.
Five-on-Five Play
A lot was made of the Leafs’ five-on-five play, but much of it was ridiculously overblown.
Justin Bourne put together this chart after the first two games, demonstrating that the Leafs were clearly better when the game was close.
In a close Game 3 that went to overtime, the shot attempts at five-on-five were 44-41 in favour of Ottawa, but the Leafs edged them in expected goals. In Game 4, with the sweep on the line, the Senators responded well with more desperation. Afterward, the Leafs controlled the shot attempts at five-on-five in both Game 5 and Game 6.
There was a lot written after Game 5, in particular, about where the Leafs rank in statistical categories like shot attempts/60, scoring chances/60, high-danger attempts/60, and expected goals/60, but a lot of it was taken way out of context.
Do the Leafs park the bus at five-on-five with a lead? Yes, clearly. Do they take it too far at times? I’d say so.
But, by and large, when the games were close, the Leafs carried play and were generally the better team. They won the five-on-five minutes, and it wasn’t a fluke. They controlled play when the games were on the line, while Ottawa threw a lot of junk at the net when trailing.
There are areas the Leafs will need to clean up at even strength, and we will discuss those in the Panthers series preview – Florida is an elite five-on-five team – but a lot of the talk was just noise in this series.
The Leafs were clearly a better team than the Senators, and while Ottawa did make it interesting by winning Game 5, the Leafs quieted the noise and took care of business, as the better team does.
Final Notes
– William Nylander is a gamebreaker. He led the team with nine points in six games while tying Tavares and Knies for the team lead in goals with three apiece. We can see it in the big moments; he has ice in his veins and can make plays with the puck on his stick (and by using his edges) when the games tighten up.
– Steven Lorentz and Brandon Carlo were the only two players on the team who didn’t record a point in the series. I am not flagging it as a point of criticism (Lorentz, in particular, deserved better), but to show the depth of the team’s contributions. We didn’t look at half the bottom six in round one this spring and wonder whether they existed.
– The Leafs’ big guns ultimately produced. After Nylander, Mitch Marner produced eight points, Auston Matthews seven, and John Tavares five. Everyone knows it: You are going nowhere if the top players don’t produce.
– I don’t think the five points in six games do Tavares justice. He was really good in this series and produced several big shifts at key times, whether in Game 6, Game 4, or Game 3, where he flipped momentum by dominating play. He’s so heavy down low, and he was really effective on the forecheck.
– There are warts to his game – and he drives me nuts at times – but there were two critical moments for Max Domi: the overtime winner in Game 2, and he set up the series-clinching goal. Credit where it’s due there.
– Pontus Holmberg takes heat in this market at times, but it’s not his fault when he is shoehorned into the top six. For what he is, he was really good in this series – effective on the forecheck, played some center, strong defensively, and he wasn’t on for a goal against at five-on-five. He won his minutes 3-0. I say it all the time, but if he could shoot, he’d be a really good player.
– Chris Tanev hasn’t received a ton of fanfare in the series, but he was excellent. He soaked up tough minutes and defensive-zone starts and finished 5-3 at five-on-five. I thought he was fantastic in Game 6, in particular, erasing plays and breaking the puck out cleanly with regularity. His 19:44 per game in the first round looks too low to me. Against Ottawa, it’s one thing, but against Florida, he should probably see the ice more.
– Anthony Stolarz was shaky at times, but he ultimately buckled down, played every game this series, and answered the bell when it was time to deliver.
Onto Florida.
