The Toronto Marlies have qualified for the Calder Cup Final for the third time in franchise history.
Despite some Jekyll-and-Hyde performances in the postseason, the Marlies have come out on top in three winner-takes-all encounters. The Marlies have also won seven of 10 road games, including three consecutive wins in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to eliminate a very talented Penguins outfit.
The Chicago Wolves have also proven themselves to be an excellent road team. They are Toronto’s opponent in a Calder Cup Final between two teams nobody expected to make it this far.
Regular Season Series
The four games between the teams in the regular season produced 27 goals. The series was split in Chicago back in November, with Toronto bouncing back from a 4-1 loss to win 4-2 the following day.
The teams last met in Toronto at the end of February/beginning of March. Chicago tasted success in a shootout before Toronto won the final meeting 5-2.
With the Wolves playing in the Central Division (Western Conference), the teams now meet infrequently. Toronto holds the upper hand over the last five seasons with a 5-2-0-1 record.
Playoff Series
These teams have met just twice in the playoffs. The first meeting was in 2008, when both were members of the Western Conference. Chicago defeated Toronto 4-1 in the Conference Finals before going on to hoist the Calder Cup. The second meeting was six years later when Toronto swept Chicago 4-0 in the 2014 Conference Semi-Finals.
Chicago last won the Calder Cup in 2022 but has suffered a relative drought since. The Wolves failed to qualify for the playoffs in two straight seasons before suffering a play-in loss to Rockford last season.
As the team with the better regular-season record, Chicago owns home-ice advantage with a 2-3-2 playoff format. Whether that will matter for either team is an interesting question. Chicago and Toronto had far better home and road records during the regular season, but the reverse has been true in the playoffs: the Marlies are 5-4 at home and 7-3 on the road, while Chicago has split eight games on home ice and won six of eight on the road.
Starting On Time & the Five-on-Five Play
The Chicago Wolves (excluding the play-in round) lead the playoffs in first-period goals and have only been outscored in the second period by the Colorado Eagles, whom they eliminated in the last round. They have only led three times in postseason play through 20 minutes but have gone on to win each of those games.
As we know by now, the Marlies have been a slow starter at times through the postseason. When able to get off to a good start, the Marlies are excellent front-runners.
The teams are incredibly evenly matched at five-on-five. During the regular season and the playoffs, there is little to separate them in terms of goal differential or GF%.
Special Teams
With nothing to split the teams at five-on-five, the championship may be decided on special teams.
Toronto’s penalty kill has been a strength for the majority of the post-season. They’ve allowed 11 power-play goals, scored four times shorthanded, and are operating at a very respectable 82.3% through 19 games.
Both teams have been shorthanded 62 times in their respective playoff runs, but Chicago has a minus-six penalty differential. The Wolves have run into more penalty trouble in defeats, a likely chink in the armour.
Chicago owns a small advantage in power-play percentage, but there is little to choose between them. The Marlies have scored three more goals but have also played three more games.
Goaltending
Cayden Primeau has been a rock for the Wolves all season long. The former Laval netminder had started every game in the post-season before sustaining an injury in Game 5 of the series versus Colorado. He has posted a .919 save percentage through the playoffs but is yet to record a shutout.
Backup Amir Miftakhov jumped in and won Games 6 and 7 on the road in Colorado, sending Chicago to the Calder Cup Final. His stats were nothing to write home about in the regular season, but he stepped up to post a .940 save percentage in two starts and a stint in relief. The former Tampa draft selection is relatively inexperienced, with just 50 AHL games to his name before the playoffs. He is expected to start the series, with Primeau’s status unknown.
Toronto should hold the upper hand in the netminding stakes. I’ve never rated Primeau particularly highly, and the Marlies had success against him when he featured for Laval. While Amir Miftakhov enjoyed some success against Colorado, the Marlies will fancy their chances of putting him under pressure.
Artur Akhtyamov is Toronto’s expected starter, having confidently carried the load since the Laval series. He’s given up two or fewer goals in seven of his last nine starts.
Offensive Producers
Scoring by committee has been a key element of Chicago’s success. Nine players have registered three-plus goals, led by Justin Robidas, the Wolves’ leading goalscorer (19) and points producer (40) at five-on-five during the regular season.
Rookies Ivan Ryabkin, Evan Vierling, and defenseman Joel Nyström have stepped up in the playoffs and are among Chicago’s top six producers at five-on-five. Juuso Välimäki (2G/6A), Ryan Suzuki (1G/6A), and the aforementioned Robidas (4G/3A) are the top producers in Chicago’s power-play success.
On a youthful roster, Cal Foote is a relative veteran on the blue line and has been a consistent producer from the back end. Felix Unger Sörum is a player to keep a keen eye on, as he’s heated up of late. The dual-national forward is a talented playmaker who registered a team-leading 49 assists during the regular season.
The Marlies have also enjoyed success with a by-committee approach to scoring. It speaks volumes that Michael Pezzetta has three game-winners to his name through this postseason campaign. The injection of Landon Sim into the lineup has added another dimension, while Jacob Quillan must be itching to get back into the lineup after missing time recently due to injury.
John Gruden’s faith in rolling four competitive lines has given the opponents a headache when matching on home ice.
Recent Form
Similar to Toronto, Chicago has had to fight and claw its way to this stage. Defeating Texas in five games was an excellent result given the Stars had their number during the regular season.
The Wolves then took down Grand Rapids, who were a juggernaut at one stage and favourites to make waves in the playoffs.
In a fluctuating Western Conference Final against Colorado, Chicago showed plenty of character to take the series in seven after trailing 3-2.
Chicago has been excellent since Spiros Anastas was appointed interim head coach in December (25-14-11) after Cam Abbott was relieved of his duties. They’ve become a highly resolute team, as shown in the post-season. The Wolves are 9-1-2 in one-goal games.
Series Prediction
With two evenly matched teams on paper who weren’t supposed to get this far, you might expect me to sit on the fence regarding a prediction.
While at least one well-known hockey site is predicting a comprehensive Chicago victory, I don’t believe that will be the case.
I believe Toronto holds the edge in the goaltending stakes, especially if Cayden Primeau proves to be unavailable for the whole series. If Chicago is forced to make another call-up, the netminding situation begins to look very thin.
The Marlies not only have established veterans in their lineup, but said players are also hungry for success in the second half, if not the back end, of their careers. If those players deliver and Toronto can shut down Chicago’s top two lines, I think a second championship could be delivered. The Marlies’ firepower, with a healthy forward roster to select from, is formidable.
As for a series scoreline — with these two teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see multiple overtime games and a Final that requires all seven games.
Series Schedule
| - | Date | Location | Time (EST) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | June 12 | Chicago | 8:00 p.m. |
| Game 2 | June 14 | Chicago | 4:00 p.m. |
| Game 3 | June 16 | Toronto | 7:00 p.m. |
| Game 4 | June 18 | Toronto | 7:00 p.m. |
| Game 5* | June 19 | Toronto | 7:00 p.m. |
| Game 6* | June 21 | Chicago | 4:00 p.m. |
| Game 7* | June 23 | Chicago | 8:00 p.m. |
