Leafs fans who’ve been pining for a significant player to take less to win in Toronto had their wish granted by the final terms of John Tavares’ contract extension: four years, $4.38 million AAV.

It’s hard to view this as anything but a big win for Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs, but the correct framing is that it’s a contract reflective of a partnership approach to the negotiation from the outset, with the common goal of getting over the playoff hump in Toronto. It clearly doesn’t play out this way whatsoever if Tavares isn’t completely committed to seeing his career through in Toronto and trying to finish the job with his hometown Maple Leafs. Especially in wake of Tavares’ selflessness on display with the passing of the captaincy to Auston Matthews last summer — and in light of a certain other hometown star likely choosing to leave the city after a contentious relationship with the organization surrounding contracts — the reception for Tavares on 2025-26 opening night should be a rousingly warmhearted one.

This is a sweetheart deal and a major cut-rate discount considering the comparables, particularly the contractual terms signed by Brock Nelson in Colorado (3x$7.5m). Tavares would’ve been well within his rights to demand as much as or more than Nelson when we consider their overall career accomplishments and 2024-25 production (Tavares is also only one year older), but instead, Tavares — in a higher-tax environment — signed below Matt Duchene’s four-year, $4.5 million AAV deal in Dallas.

Tavares, turning 35 in September, will be 38 years of age when the contract expires. The new contract represents just 4.6% of next season’s $95.5 million cap; Tavares’ $11 million AAV on his previous contract occupied 12.5% of last year’s $88 million cap.

Tavares led the entire NHL UFA class in goals with 38 in 2024-25 and was second in points with 73. While Tavares shot a career-high 19%, with the 100-point production of Mitch Marner likely heading out the door on July 1, the Leafs could hardly stomach losing another major chunk of their overall offensive (and power-play) output from last season, let alone from a player who plays a premium position at center, while expecting to entirely backfill the gaping hole via (typically inefficient) UFA spending.

Any concerns about the four-year term for a soon-to-be 35-year-old are significantly mitigated by the AAV under a fast-rising cap and the contract structure. By the third year of the contract, Tavares’ $4.38 million AAV will represent just 3.9% of the $113.5 million cap (2027-28). The structure of the contract also maximizes flexibility late in the deal, as Tavares will earn just $1.8 million in base salary in year four of the contract, and the No-Movement Clause from years one and two converts to a modified, five-team No-Trade Clause in years three and four. Before the new terms of the CBA kick in next season, the Leafs were able to take advantage of deferred compensation and a heavy up-front bonus structure to maximize their flexibility here, and they also avoided the full NMC in years three and four:

In recent seasons, while Tavares was still earning $11 million on the cap, it was reasonable to expect him to provide high-end production and decidedly win his five-on-five minutes in the playoffs as the team’s 2C behind Matthews. It became something of a problem that Tavares, despite some big moments, couldn’t deliver enough overall in the role at playoff time; he produced 31 points over 50 playoff games and is a -15, never showing himself capable of consistently winning his five-on-five minutes against the higher-end 2Cs he’s matched up against. It was a not-insignificant contributor to why the Core Four model didn’t work later in Tavares’ previous contract; Tavares is not particularly strong defensively, fast, or able to drive play at this stage of his career.

For that reason, this new contract needed to reflect a player the Leafs are happy to slot at 3C or move up and down the wing throughout the top nine while reserving ample space to pay up for more quality elsewhere in the lineup. That’s exactly what this new contract accomplishes; for example, Tavares could end up as a productive 3LW at five-on-five who offers faceoff and power-play specialties and still provide good value at this number.

At $4.38 million — under a cap limit that will climb above $113.5 million before the end of the four-year term — Tavares’ contract goes from an inefficiency on the team’s cap books to one that should allow the Leafs plenty of flexibility to improve their overall center and forward group in the coming days, weeks, and months.

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