Christmas is over, Canada has been eliminated by Czechia yet again in the World Juniors, and the NHL stretch run before the Olympic break is now underway.
The Maple Leafs have done a good job of collecting points lately, going 4-0-2, which has technically put them ahead of three teams in the East by points percentage. They would still need to pass four teams to take over a playoff spot. A few losses in a row, and they will be right back at the bottom of the conference. They’re in the playoff race, but so is everyone else in the East. This will be a dogfight.
We already wrote about some of the Leafs’ recent improvements over the weekend in more depth, in case you missed it. Now, let’s jump into some extended notes and thoughts.
Notes
– The Leafs owned the best penalty kill in the league in December. Their leader in shorthanded time on ice per game? Troy Stecher, followed by Jake McCabe. At forward, Steven Lorentz and Scott Laughton led the way, followed by Nic Roy. Laughton and Lorentz have created a good checking duo for the team, both shorthanded and at five-on-five.
The Leafs‘ penalty kill does a good job of staying compact and blocking seam passes. They are also effective at identifying when to pressure and be aggressive. This season, the Leafs are tied for third in the league in penalty killing percentage. With the power play starting to show real signs of competence, a good penalty kill and power play will take a team a very long way in this league, all on their own.
– In the first two months of the season, John Tavares piled up 28 points in 26 games, and William Nylander racked up 32 in 21. They were the top two goal scorers on the team, with 11 and 12 goals, respectively. Since then, Tavares has just nine points in 16 games, and Nylander has nine in 12. Both were always going to cool off, particularly Tavares. It’s not like Nylander hasn’t produced at all, although he went goalless for a stretch, but the Leafs need both to find it again offensively. Tavares walked in clean against the Islanders and missed the net. He has six points in his last six games on paper, but three of those were empty-net points.
– Matias Maccelli is up to six points in eight games since returning from a healthy scratch. The Maccelli-Tavares-Nylander line is up 8-6 in goals, notching just under 55% of shot attempts and over 60% of expected goals in their minutes. While Maccelli is not the type of forechecker who has traditionally excelled on their line (Pacioretty, McMann, Bertuzzi, etc.), he can hold onto pucks and add some real creativity, which works well with two players who can score. Maccelli’s goal against Winnipeg was a great rip — on and off his stick, without shuffling the puck. He owns a really good shot, but he’s only recorded 26 shots on net in 30 games.
– We all know that Nick Robertson owns a great shot and can score goals, but this is the first season when he has actually posted more assists (11) than goals (9) so far. He’s two away from matching his career high in assists. Against the Islanders, he scored a great goal where he collected the puck, immediately cradled it on his forehand, and scored. No deke, or shuffle; just a confident rip. He also bombed a one-timer against Detroit a few nights earlier for a great goal.
Robertson’s defensive play — and size — have been highlighted as reasons not to move him up the lineup at times, but when Robertson entered the league, he struggled to use his teammates and move the puck. He loved his shot, used it all the time, and almost looked like he was playing with blinders on at times. That made him a challenging fit with top players. Against New Jersey, he picked up two really nice assists; the first found McMann right in the slot, and on the second, he used the threat of his shot to pull in defenders before essentially making a shot-pass.
Robertson doesn’t need to turn into Adam Oates, but showing some ability to pull in defenders with the threat of his shot to create space for teammates will go a long way. He’s obviously stronger now and can hold onto pucks a bit better. His speed gets him in on the forecheck, and his passing has shown some growth. The shot has always been there, but rounding out those other areas as he matures is turning him into a real player.
– A lot was made about the Leafs’ improved depth in the offseason, and while the desired results haven’t been there for several reasons, it’s worth noting that the Leafs have eight players with 20+ points already. Only the league-best Colorado Avalanche has more. Max Domi is about to make it nine shortly, as he’s sitting at 19, too.
11 Leafs hit the 20-point mark through all of last season, and they should easily eclipse that number this season. Of course, nobody is going to come close to Mitch Marner’s 102 points, and until basically a week and a half ago, Matthews wasn’t producing as expected in general. But their 3.34 goals per game is actually higher than last season’s 3.26, and that’s with a power play that didn’t exist before Christmas.
– Last season, though, Chris Tanev played 75 games. This season, it unfortunately looks like it will end at 11, one of which was a half-game. The team has been able to build some real depth scoring and get their offense going, but there’s no replacing Tanev. Not to make excuses for the team — they will need to figure it out — but it sure seems like Marner receives a lot of the attention when missing Tanev for pretty much the whole year and goaltending injuries/issues have been their most significant problems.
– The Leafs owned the fourth-best winning percentage when leading after two periods last season. This season, they are dead last. They are 29th when leading after the first period as well. Their ability to defend and protect leads has fallen off a proverbial cliff.
Quotes
Tonight was a tough one — I know that — but he has played some really good hockey for us this year. I am not worried about it. I think he will get back to the level he was at. I do believe that. That is kind of where I am at with it.
– Craig Berube on Morgan Rielly after the loss to the Islanders
Morgan Rielly played nearly 28 minutes after McCabe went down against the Islanders, finishing minus-four in a 4-3 loss, and the numbers definitely told the story: burned for one goal, completely lost in coverage on the late tying goal, and providing zero defense on the OT winner while his man scored.
At five-on-five, Rielly has been outscored 35-47 overall this season. He leads the league in goals against per minute, and he doesn’t even face tough matchup assignments. His 26 points in 41 games are good for 20th among all defensemen in raw scoring, but it’s not enough production to make up for a complete liability at the other end of the ice. Compounding the issue is that Rielly is averaging 22 minutes per night, just one second less than Jake McCabe, who leads the team.
“It was just a bunch of shoving back and forth to start the faceoff. I asked him and he went. It was awesome to see Jarny score, awesome to be cheering in the box.”
– Matthew Knies, after fighting Nico Hischier as part of a 4-0 Toronto win
Matthew Knies has established that when he’s confronted or challenged physically, he won’t take sh*t from anyone. It’s an admirable trait, one the Leafs need more of throughout their lineup. The next step is not waiting to be specifically challenged and standing up for others, too.
There were multiple incidents earlier in the season where opponents took liberties with Easton Cowan, and Knies was nowhere to be found. Just a week ago, Matthews got into it with Brady Tkachuk, and it’s not like Knies went over at any point and let him know it won’t fly. Matthews needs to fend for himself to a certain extent, but when it’s a Tkachuk figure, it doesn’t make any sense.
Knies put on mass in the offseason and arrived at camp weighing in at a pretty hefty 232 pounds. He’s noticeably lost a step as a result, which is evident to the eye, and, if we check NHL Edge data, his skating speeds have dipped by those metrics as well. For what benefit? Knies is technically hitting at about the same rate, but I can’t recall him ever really punishing someone with a hit. He has knocked a few players down in open ice on the odd occasion, but he’s not crushing opponents (and he didn’t need the extra weight to fight Nico Hischier). He’s slower and has been pushed down the lineup as a result, even though he’s producing with 36 points in 38 games.
“It means a lot. It’s a very historical franchise, and I take a lot of pride in putting on the jersey every day. To be in the same sentence as some of the greats that have come before us means a lot. It’s extremely special. I’m very humbled, and I couldn’t do it without a great group of guys around me.”
– Auston Matthews on setting the Leafs’ all-time goals record
A belated congratulations to Auston Matthews on becoming the Leafs’ all-time leading goal scorer. It is a significant milestone, one that people will eventually reflect on and properly recognize. It’s a shame it was accompanied by a loss on Saturday, but it was a great moment.
Hopefully, it is cause for some pause and reflection about Matthews and his production to date. He has 421 goals in 664 games. That is absolutely ridiculous.
Tweets of the Week
He's back… pic.twitter.com/BcaZDLmL0j
— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) January 2, 2026
Perhaps most importantly in the context of this season, Matthews appears to have turned a corner with his play. He has been fantastic lately, and if he has indeed flipped the proverbial switch, the Leafs are back in business. It felt like he was dangerous every shift against the Jets, and he didn’t relent against the Islanders. It felt like a goal was coming from him against Detroit, and even though he didn’t score in overtime, he absolutely leaned into a shot that rang the bar (a sort of “Where have you been?” moment).
With six goals in December, Bobby McMann is the first player not named Auston, Mitch, Willie or John to outright lead #LeafsForever in scoring in a calendar month since Zach Hyman in March 2021.
— Kevin McGran (@kevin_mcgran) December 31, 2025
Bobby McMann has been very good for a while now and is a key reason the Leafs’ top line has taken off. Swapping Knies for McMann has made a significant impact on the top line; they are controlling play better, generating more scoring chances, and winning their minutes more effectively than when Knies was there. McMann’s speed as a forechecker compared to Knies’ is allowing the trio to possess the puck more.
Last season, with 17 goals and 25 points before the All-Star break, McMann was pacing for a big season. After the break, he scored just three goals and nine points in 27 games. He’s currently at 12 goals and 22 points in 40 games as we reach the halfway point. The question for McMann isn’t about his abilities at this point — his wheels are noticeable, and he owns a great shot — but whether he can put together a full season now.
Toronto has been playing on 102-point pace since the Maple Leafs claimed Troy Stecher from waivers. And I have no idea how it’s possible, haha. From zero to hero. Happy for Stecher. pic.twitter.com/pcpbEEUcGC
— Rono (@RonoAnalyst) January 4, 2026
It’s hard to overstate the impact Troy Stecher has made on the team. He’s playing huge minutes, is winning those minutes 22-13, is tilting the ice with his ability to transition the puck, and he’s doing it all with under 39 percent offensive-zone starts. It’s almost scary to think about where the team would be without this waiver claim.
Five Things I Think I’d Do
1. I think the Leafs have to treat Morgan Rielly as what he is right now: an offensive, needs-to-be-reasonably-sheltered defenseman. I do believe the Leafs tried opening up trade discussions with him in the offseason, but he wanted no part of it. He is ultimately in control due to his contractual situation.
While this season started with some promise (at least offensively), it isn’t working out. It really feels like it’s time to move on from the team’s longest-tenured player, but it’s hard to picture that happening in-season. It is likely an offseason move where everyone can take a deep breath and try to find him a new home, given he has a full no-movement clause.
In the meantime, Rielly’s minutes really need to be scaled back. He can’t play 22 minutes per night. Some of it is due to the team’s many injuries on defense, but hopefully, Jake McCabe isn’t out too long, and Brandon Carlo returns shortly. Coupled with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Troy Stecher, those four names probably should be the team’s top four.
Rielly can still produce, and the Leafs need his puck movement, but he’s giving up too much in his own end, and the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. Scaling back his minutes will likely do him some good as well.
2. When Brandon Carlo returns, I think the Leafs should give him every opportunity to prove his worth in a shutdown role. That’s the role he’s played when at his best in his career, and with Tanev out, the opportunity and the team need is there. Carlo hasn’t been great since the acquisition, but the Leafs have a real need for his skillset, given Tanev’s situation.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but I’m looking at Carlo and thinking, “The team brought you here for a reason, they have a desperate need for your skill set right now, and they aren’t asking you to do anything you haven’t done well before.” Playing with McCabe should help. If they return Carlo to Rielly’s pair, I don’t see the purpose of it or much hope for it as an effective top-four pairing.
3. Ultimately, I think we are looking at a Leafs defense unit of McCabe-Carlo, OEL-Stecher, and Rielly-Benning/Benoit. Rielly-OEL can be paired up in offensive situations. Alternatively, they can run Rielly-OEL all game, Benoit-Stecher, and McCabe-Carlo. Carlo needs to play like the player they paid a high price to acquire.
4. When William Nylander returns, I’d like to see him moved back with John Tavares and Matias Maccelli. It was a soft scoring line, but they generated good offense, and Maccelli and Nylander showed signs of real chemistry together in the way they moved the puck between each other.
This bumps Matthew Knies down to a third line with Nic Roy and Nick Robertson, a line that, in theory, should present a problem for the opposition. The only question for me is who plays with Scott Laughton and Steven Lorentz between Calle Jarnkrok and Easton Cowan. Cowan is the better player, but they use the unit as a matchup/checking line, and there’s no point in deploying Cowan in that kind of role. It would probably come down to the specific opponent for me. I also wouldn’t hesitate to dress Cowan and throw together a Lorentz-Laughton-Roy line when the need arises.
5. I think the Leafs’ entire overtime deployment strategy needs a rethink. I don’t love dissecting 3v3 — it’s largely a crapshoot — but they are bleeding points in overtime right now, and every point really matters. Max Domi can’t be fourth among forwards in overtime time on ice. He shouldn’t even be in the top six. I’d sooner play McMann, Robertson, Cowan, and Laughton (who can skate and is not a defensive liability) ahead of him. Domi has been outscored 0-2 in overtime so far, and both goals came off his stick to the other team. Rielly shouldn’t be playing more than OEL in overtime, either.
Here’s my approach to the OT pairings: Matthews-McMann, Tavares-Nylander, and Knies-Robertson, with a defense order of OEL, Stecher, and Rielly. Each trio has some speed and finishing ability. I’d even give Laughton-Cowan the odd look.
